“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 56% on a 400+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 19-10 (65.51%) ATS so Far!**

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 11-4-1 (73.33%) ATS so Far!**

Baltimore-3 @ Cleveland: My first pick of the year outside of the Money Zone is on arguably the most balanced team in the NFL. Flacco looks rejuvenated as I thought he might be when I wrote this in the preseason:

“There is certainly a track record of veteran QB’s that have bounced back after their organizations have drafted “The Next Franchise QB”.  Look at two of the more recent situations of veteran quarterbacks that were propelled after their organizations began to doubt them.  Most notably, Tom Brady after the Patriots drafted Jimmy Garoppolo, but look at how Alex Smith bounced back last season after the Chiefs drafted Mahomes.”

Through the first quarter of the season he has delivered:

His downfield throws to John Brown look great.  He has the speed dimension they haven’t really had since Torrey Smith.  The offensive line has been excellent.  They will be challenged by the Browns talented defensive front.  If they can protect Flacco in the early going, look for them to take control of the game.

Most importantly they get Jimmy Smith back at corner this week who might be their best defensive player.  Even without him they’ve locked up the rest of the league, ranking in the elite level in all important passing categories.

The challenge will be to maintain the momentum.  Past Ravens teams would lose this game.  I’m hoping that this is a different team.  Mayfield, although dynamic at times, has shown that he will throw balls up for grabs, and he was going against the worst defense in the NFL last week.  Baltimore should throw all types of unique blitzes and exotic coverages to make his first AFC North game as difficult as possible.

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• The WI-FI at Shorestein Headquarters sucks tonight… So I’m light on random thoughts
• Miami/Washington have posted some of the best PRD’s this season. That’s why their spread calculations are so far off.  Eventually, they will even out and come back to the pack.
• Patriots have destroyed Andrew Luck just about every time they’ve faced him. I’d like to take them, but you should know my stance on betting against the Money Zone!
• JAX/KC should be a great game. I typically like to go with the strong defense vs. the high flying offense.
• Will the Rams finally lose please? Making my preseason prediction look pretty bad. Lol
• What on Earth happened to Minnesota’s defense? All of a sudden Zimmer forgot to coach.  Slow LB’s chasing fast wide receivers into the endzone all night.

Good Luck!