“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a 350+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll. 

**For Full access to Money Zone checkout Shoresteinsays.com**

New England @ Jacksonville +1: I think Jacksonville has the defense to slow down the Patriots this week.  In my mind, the Jaguars have great value as home dogs.  They have a similar feel to the Denver defense at its prime in that they have an elite pass rush with talented corners that can play man coverage.  On top of that, the Florida heat/humidity will be a factor in this game much like the altitude is a factor for Denver.  The Patriots offensive tackles had the benefit of playing in ideal conditions in week 1, and this really mitigated the rumors that Trent Brown was out of shape.

Brady has also had some of his worst games against a defense in Miami that really can’t hold a candle to what he’s facing this week.  Here is a snapshot of some of the last 4 games he’s played at Miami:

I think Bouye and Ramsey will eliminate Hogan and Dorsett from this game.  They should be able to contain Gronk with double teams.

I also really like the game plan that they had in the AFC championship.  It gives me confidence that the coaching staff has a clue on how to beat the Patriots.  They were aggressive early on with Bortles, and I think it really gave him confidence that they could actually win in New England.  It took a heroic performance from Brady and Amendola to complete the comeback in a game that the Jaguars virtually had won.  I think the Jaguar offense got a little too conservative down the stretch.  If they are put in the same position, I expect them to maintain their kill-shot mentality.  I’m not overly concerned about the injury status of Fournette.  I think the more effective player in this game will be TJ Yeldon, because he can hurt the Patriots linebackers with his receiving ability.

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• Thanks Matt Patricia for ruining my near perfect week 1…..
• I was tempted to take the Redskins again, but it feels like too high of a spread.
• You may be laughing at Buffalo in the money zone, but I think that has the potential to be a perfect trap game for the Chargers.
• Jets looked tough in debut, but it’s hard to tell if that was due to the Lions softness.
• Vikings still looking like the most balanced team in NFL. My calculations still are using strong weight from 2017, so that’s why the Packers/Vikings game looks so lopsided.
• I expect the Saints to rebound and absolutely throttle the Browns.
• Cincy/Balty is just too difficult to call for me.
• I wanted to take Eagles this week…. Think TB will come back to Earth after that Fitzpatrick performance

Good Luck!