Big Ten Picks – Week # 2

College football is back! It was great to sit back and watch five straight nights of action and the opening week was a solid one in terms of betting. Despite an unfortunate start, we had Wisconsin beating Western Kentucky by more than 34 but the Badgers sat their starters out for the fourth quarter and cruised to a 31-point win, Notre Dame knocked off Michigan and Maryland not only covered, they beat Texas straight up. Those results gave us a 2-1 record to start the campaign.

Big Ten Games

New Mexico at Wisconsin (-34.5), Western Michigan at Michigan (-24), Duke at Northwestern (-3), Eastern Michigan at Purdue (-14), Rutgers at Ohio State (-34), Colorado at Nebraska (-4), Iowa State at Iowa (-4), Maryland (-14) at Bowling Green, Virginia at Indiana (-6), Western Illinois at Illinois (no line), Fresno State at Minnesota (-3), Penn State (-9) at Pittsburgh, Michigan State (6.5) at Arizona State

This list will be quite long until we dive into conference play. On to the picks!

Western Michigan at Michigan (-28) – Noon on FS1

The Michigan Wolverines began the season 0-1 with a very disappointing offensive performance in South Bend. That wasn’t surprising as the Notre Dame game was a continuation of what we’ve seen in the Jim Harbaugh era. I feel this game will be as well. Michigan is very good at throttling weak opposition and they will be particularly motivated to look good this week as the “natives are restless”. Western Michigan amassed 621 yards of offense against the non-existent Syracuse defense but they won’t find things so easily inside the Big House. On the other side of the ball, Syracuse put up 560 yards of offense and scored 55 points against the Broncos. I think Michigan is going to throttle WMU and I expect Shea Patterson to have a great afternoon at Michigan Stadium. In fact, I think Michigan will perform quite well for a few weeks, until they meet their next big opponent.

Rutgers at Ohio State (-34) – 3:30 on BTN

Choosing a 34-point favorite in a conference matchup is dangerous. That being said, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Rutgers Scarlet Knights have met each of the past four seasons. Ohio State is 4-0 in those matchups: 56-17 in 2014, 49-7 in 2015, 58-0 in 2016 and 56-0 in 2017. This year’s version of the East division clash is taking place at Ohio State and the Buckeyes offense is as potent as ever. They won’t be letting off the gas at any point and on Saturday against Oregon State, it looked like Dwayne Haskins is ready for prime time. Rutgers doesn’t have a good offense and I don’t think they’ll be able to reach 20 points, which means they would need to hold Ohio State near or below 50 to cover. Give me the Buckeyes and I expect them to win by a very large margin.

Fresno State (+2) at Minnesota – 7:30 on FS1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers deserve some credit. They were very good for much of their opening night 48-10 victory over New Mexico State. This week’s test is much, much stiffer as 1-0 Fresno State comes to Minneapolis. The Bulldogs beat Idaho 79-13, a score that doesn’t really tell us anything because of how weak the Vandals are. Still, I had this game pegged as a potential upset and I am sticking to my guns. Fresno State has a fierce defense and I believe they will give freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad some problems. The Bulldogs are good in all three phases and they will be a factor in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs are now 12-2-1 against the spread (ATS) since Jeff Tedford took over prior to the 2017 season and their offense is expected to take a step forward this season and quarterback Marcus McMaryion is now in his second season in Tedford’s system. The Bulldogs also have a solid stable of running backs and some capable playmakers at wide receiver. I’d be really surprised if the Gophers were able to pull away from Fresno State and I am actually calling for the outright win for the Bulldogs at Minnesota.

 Duke at Northwestern (-3) – Noon on ESPNU

Both of these teams were impressive in college football’s opening week. Duke beat Army 34-14 on Friday night and Northwestern went to Purdue and beat the Boilermakers on Thursday night. They now meet in an intriguing week two matchup. I like this game enough to throw it in as a bonus pick and I am going to continue riding the Northwestern Wildcats until they cool off. Pat Fitzgerald’s squad is now 10-4 ATS since the beginning of last season and they have won nine straight contests outright. Clayton Thorson got a week under his belt after his ACL injury and he should be better in week two. Backup T.J. Green didn’t look bad either. I was particularly impressed by the Wildcats running game as Jeremy Larkin looks like the star I was expecting in my preseason preview. Duke beat Army by 20 but the stats suggested a much closer game than the score would indicate. The Knights gained 365 yards to Duke’s 381 and first downs were basically even. Duke is a very solid squad but the Wildcats are red hot and I see no reason to back away from them now. Take Northwestern at home as the field goal favorite.