2018 Big Ten Football Picks – Week # 1
Gold medals were handed out, Lebron James became a Laker, a World Cup was decided, Brooks Koepka won a pair of majors and the Boston Red Sox have set a blistering pace in pursuit of a record number of regular season victories. Yes, much has happened in the world of sports since we were last able to pick games and bet on college football. At long last, the wait is over! A change this season: I’m going to begin these articles by listing each of the games involving Big Ten squads, along with the lines on each game. From there, I’ll pick the ones I feel are worth investing some capital on.
Big Ten Games
New Mexico State at Minnesota (No line), Northwestern at Purdue (-3), Utah State at Michigan State (-23), Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-34), Texas at Maryland (+13.5), Oregon State at Ohio State (-37), Kent State at Illinois (-16.5), Texas State at Rutgers (-16.5), Northern Illinois at Iowa (-10.5), Appalachian State at Penn State (-23), Indiana (-10) at Florida International, Michigan (-1.5) at Notre Dame, Akron at Nebraska (-23.5)
This list will be quite long until we dive into conference play. On to the picks!
Michigan at Notre Dame (+1.5) – Saturday, 7:30 on NBC
The Michigan Wolverines gauntlet of a schedule begins with the renewal of a rivalry as the Maize and Blue head to South Bend to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Michigan believes their offensive issues from a season ago might just be solved by the addition of Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson. I think Patterson is a good, but not great, player and I still have significant questions about the Michigan attack’s ability to push the Wolverines into the College Football Playoff conversation. Notre Dame’s defense is going to be very good and I think they could give Patterson fits in his Michigan opener. I’m a strong believer in good teams getting points at home and that’s the situation Notre Dame is in. They are underdogs at home, a spot the Irish have faced only three times since 2013 (2-1 ATS).
My biggest concern with this pick is the matchup of Brandon Wimbush against the Michigan defense. The Wolverines are going to have a ridiculous defense and the Irish offense under Wimbush has a tendency to be one-dimensional. If he cannot find a way to move the ball through the air, Notre Dame will have a hard time getting first downs, let alone scoring points. I think the Irish defense is able to force a couple of turnovers that puts them in good scoring position and they do just enough to get the win at home and start Michigan’s tough schedule off with a loss.
Texas at Maryland (+13.5) – Noon on Saturday
While this game is not in College Park (it is Landover), it is a still a week one matchup that sends the Longhorns on the road. Controversy surrounds the Terrapins off the field and there will be questions much bigger than anything football-related that must be answered but the Terrapins hung more than 50 points on Texas a season ago in Austin and seeing Texas listed as nearly two touchdown favorites is a surprise to me. I think Texas wins this one but it will be closer than the line indicates. Take the points.
Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-34) – 9:00 pm on Friday
The Hilltoppers were a disaster last season and I don’t see much reason for optimism surrounding the 2018 version. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Badgers enter this contest as my heavy favorite to win the Big Ten West and I think they will give whoever emerges from the East a real challenge in the Big Ten Championship Game. Wisconsin has a very solid defense from front to back and their offense is going to be capable of bullying you on the ground or slicing you through the air. The line is steep but I think Wisconsin will be able to score on nearly every possession and I see the Hilltoppers having a hard time getting into the endzone. The Badgers do not have a particularly difficult non-conference schedule and I expect them to win handily in each contest. Give me the Badgers by more than 40.


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