It isn’t the Sweet Sixteen you or I projected, but that doesn’t make this tournament any less fantastic.  Sure, I’d rather see Virginia taking on Kentucky than a Kansas State team who may or may not have its best player.  And yeah, a matchup between Xavier and Gonzaga might be a little more compelling than Florida State.  But by and large, we are left with some really fantastic games.  Kansas vs Clemson is good, Texas Tech and Purdue is solid. Michigan and Texas A&M (though the Aggies are an “upset”) will have pros and big-time talent all over the court.

And of course, we all love to wrap out arms around an underdog, so why not Loyola Chicago, who has a REAL chance to advance to the Elite Eight, despite not making an NCAA Tournament appearance in many of our readers lifetime.  But keep in mind, this success isn’t new to Sister Jean, who has literally seen her beloved school win it all.

We had a nice second round, and a round that would have been fantastic were it not for a painful Kansas backdoor loss on a garbage bucket.  Let’s see if we can replicate the result for some Sweet Sixteen winners.

 

SWEET SIXTEEN FAVORITE FREE PICKS:

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats -5

Let me start by stealing your Dad’s joke, “I’m picking the Wildcats!”  On to business: I know Kentucky has clunker potential and has some shooting deficiencies and is insanely young.  But they are also WAY WAY better than Kansas State.  Yes, the Big Twelve left them battle tested, but they didn’t come out victorious in any of those battles. They were 0-6 against the three best teams in the Big Twelve, Kansas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia.

Meanwhile, Kentucky, as most Calipari teams do, is peaking at the right time.  This is a team full of future pros, and while they lack the profile of Kentucky teams of lore, they are still really talented.

Kansas State had a nice run but add in the health concerns around leading scorer Dean Wade, and it adds up to a nice win for Big Blue.  Even if Wade CAN give them some minutes off the bench, it is unlikely they will get the offensive contribution they are going to need to stay with Kentucky.

MY PICK:  KENTUCKY WILDCATS -5

 

Florida State Seminoles vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs -5.5

Xavier, like their crosstown brethren, gagged up a berth to the Sweet Sixteen in spectacular fashion.  Yet unlike the other major upsets we saw in the first weekend, at no point did Florida State look particularly “good.”  In fact, for much of the game they looked pretty pedestrian at best.  It took a clunker from X to punch their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen.

Meanwhile, Gonzaga is looking like one of the four best teams in the country.  Killian Tillie is unleashing the potential that remained muted behind the likes of Zach Collins and Karnowski last season.  Jonathon Williams is a future pro, and the Zags have five guys averaging over 11 points a game.  They have size, experience, balance and depth.  Plus they are playing in Los Angeles at Staples, which should give them the home crowd advantage as well.

Florida State did an admirable job getting this far.  They’ve far exceeded any reasonable expectations in a season that figured to be a bit of a rebuild for Leonard Hamilton after some early NBA departures.  But that season ends tonight.

MY PICK:  GONZAGA BULLDOGS -5.5

 

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Villanova Wildcats -5

I know I have given you nothing but favorites in this column, despite a tournament of massive upsets and insanity. But I’m giving you a third favorite here with Villanova.

YES – West Virginia is a dangerous opponent who is tough to prepare for.  They devour unsuspecting teams with their relentless pressure.  They can blowout good teams and make good squads look pedestrian when the turnovers start mounting.

But do you think anyone is turning over JALEN BRUNSON??  Think you are speeding up one of the smartest, veteran, poised teams in the country?  Not happening.  Villanova has been the best team in the country the last three weeks and they have all the key components of a National Title favorite.

West Virginia, for all the havoc they can create with their full court pressure, is a pretty poor halfcourt defensive team.  Villanova will break the pressure, and then score with relentless precision.  That means West Virginia will have to counter with THEIR half-court offense.

If any game in the Sweet Sixteen is likely to turn into a blowout, it is this one.  Villanova, assuming they can handle the pressure (and I feel strongly that they can not just handle it but also exploit it) should win this game handily.

MY PICK:  VILLANOVA WILDCATS -5

 

FAVORITE VALUE WAGERS:

I prefer to pick games straight-up.  It is a far more do-able task than trying to guess who MIGHT play whom after another few rounds of chaos.  But there are some future wagers that have some VALUE because of the odds attached to them.

Here’s a few that caught my attention.

#1. Texas A&M to win National Title +2500  – The Aggies have the most NBA-ready talent of any team left in their field aside from Duke.  They had a nightmare of a season; injuries, suspensions, etc.  But they are healthy NOW, and if that North Carolina performance is any indication, this team is as good as anyone out there.  They can win their region with a pair of wins over Michigan and Gonzaga (both reasonably possible) and then you have a hedge ticket at 25:1 entering the Final Four.  Add in the weakness of the left side of the bracket, and the BEST possible opponent they could face in the National Semi is Kentucky…

#2. Gonzaga to WIN WEST +140 – I know. I just gave you the value of Texas A&M in the same region, but this is a play that could compliment that wager.  Gonzaga is beating Florida State.  That gives you Gonzaga straight up against Michigan or Texas A&M in the Regional Final, a game they likely be laying points in.

#3. Villanova to WIN NATIONAL TITLE +350 – The best team with the toughest path.  But if they DO get to the Final Four, you’ll be thrilled to have them at this price.  I don’t think the West Virginia game tomorrow is as daunting as it sounds on the surface, nor do I think Texas Tech or a Purdue team without (or with a limited) Haas is knocking off Jay Wright’s complete squad.  They have the toughest region, but I feel confident they will win it.  You’d then be left with the likely favorite (depending upon Duke’s performance) at better than three to one money, opening up a world of hedge opportunities.

Enjoy the games!  And be sure to leave nasty comments when we end up with a Loyola vs. Syracuse Final…