With all due respect to lesser holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas and Super Bowl Sunday, the greatest American holiday is just hours away from officially commencing.

We’ve already opened our first present; the bracket unveiling (although this year the wrapping was a little sloppy…yet I digress) and now it is time to dig into to the main feast.  I imagine most of you already have your bracket(s) filled out and submitted and are seeking domination of your annual office pool. But while you fret over an essential lottery ticket, I’m going to hone in on some more practical methods of making a few bucks – picking winners in individual games.

The fact that your office pool is rarely won by the dude or girl who knows hoops the best tells you something VERY important. Projecting six games out without a clue where the one or two major hiccups will strike is a fool’s errand.  Things that make no sense are going to happen. But I’m a handicapper, not a “gambler” so I’m going to walk you through my three favorite wagers from the first real day of the Tournament.

And, because I am still a hopeless bracket romantic, I’ll give you a few of my wilder upset picks for your future mocking or adulation…

Ok, on to biz’ness!

FAVORITE FIRST ROUND WAGERS:

Wright State +13 vs. Tennessee

I’m not as wild about the Vols as some of the television talking heads.  Of the top sixteen teams, I think they are most vulnerable to some first-round craziness.  Wright State has no resume.  Like, none.  They have a win over Georgia Tech and a pair of wins on the road and a neutral court against a solid Northern Kentucky squad.  The Horizon League is a decent mid-major, but not the same tourney-preparing slate as when the league featured Valpo (and Butler, if you want to go further back).

But Tennessee has to worry about themselves, not just Wright State.  The SEC was better this year, as evidenced by its large number of tourney berths. But it is DEEPER than it is GOOD.  Meaning there are a lot of good teams in the league, but less great ones.  Outside of conference, the Vols knocked off Purdue before falling to Villanova in the Bahamas and played UNC very tough before losing a close game.  They have a solid resume, but there is a loooong tourney history of Top Four seeds who had dramatically overachieving years falling early in the tournament.  Rick Barnes’s squad fits that profile perfectly (along with Auburn, another prime candidate)

Since you are reading this on Saturday Edge, you are likely a football fan as well.  SEC Football does not equal SEC Basketball.  I think the league has made great strides forward, but could be a big March disappointment.

The Vols should survive the opener, but 13 is a lot to lay on a non-dominant squad on a neutral floor.

MY PICK:  Wright State +13

 

Iona Gaels +19.5 vs Duke Blue Devils

This is another pick that is LINE based, not “Duke is going to lose” based.  They are not going to lose.  Yes, they have been felled in a similar situation in the past, but a previously-unknown CJ McCollum was running lose in the Lehigh backcourt.  Iona does not have CJ.

But they do have almost 20 points cushion against a team famously lackidasical on the defensive side of the court.  Most predictive analytic models have this as about an 80-69 game.  And that seems reasonable to me.  I’m taking the points, rooting for a thrilling upset bid for entertainment purposes, and happy to take my money and smile when that upset bid comes up short.

MY PICK:  IONA GAELS +19.5

 

Davidson Wildcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats -5.5

Bonus points if you knew BOTH of these teams are “Wildcats.”  And bonus points if you don’t get sucked into this popular upset pick.  Kentucky has a knack for figuring things out late in the season.  More specifically, Coach Cal has a knack for helping his young teams look less young by March Madness.  If the SEC Tournament was any indication, the Cats have grown up a lot.  And they still have NBA talent all over the floor.  It may not be “Top 5” talent like in year’s past, but it IS NBA talent.

And why, oh why, are we suddenly all so in love with Davidson??  Is it their 11 losses?  Is it the 20-point loss to UVA?  The blowout loss to Nevada? The 117 points allowed to St. Bonnie?  Or the lack of any real legit wins outside of Rhode Island?

Kentucky is far more talented and playing really good basketball.  I recognize the potential for a team laden with freshman to poop the bed in a big moment, but I also have seen them rip through the SEC Tourney on a neutral floor and win at hostile West Virginia.  I’ll eat the points and take the Cats.  Er. Kentucky.

MY PICK:  KENTUCKY WILDCATS -5.5

 

Favorite Upset Potential (#12 or higher – your 10’s and 11’s aren’t “upset picks” – stop it)

1. Montana over Michigan – EVERYONE is suddenly in love with the Wolverines. The surged late and won the Big Ten title but have now been sitting around idly for 11 days.  That’s a long time.  They are also playing out West in Wichita where they won’t have the natural crowd advantage they would have had if they landed in Detroit.  The crowds love an upset darling. If Michigan comes out flat after a nearly two week layoff, they could find a rowdy crowd mounting against them.
2. Murray State over West Virginia – There is always a 5/12 upset (seemingly, not actually concretely true). West Virginia can smother you on defense but can be abominable on offense. If they aren’t hitting shots, they can lose games. Murray State is an experienced squad with some talent. This should at worst be a good basketball game.
3. Charleston over Auburn – I like this pick for one reason. I don’t think Auburn is actually very good. The Tigers lost four of their last six games and five of their last eight, so they are bringing some bad momentum to the Dance.

Good luck everyone!  Hope your brackets still look respectable by Monday…