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Saturday Free Picks Amidst the Chaos – Feb 24th

Let’s face it, talking about college hoops or picking games is a little tricky today. It’s like analyzing the dance card at the ball on the Titanic.  Sure, there’s games to be played, but it feels like this entire ship is going down.

If you took a 24-hour hiatus from all forms of media, basically every single college basketball program of any note, including ones that seemed above reproach like Duke and Michigan State and Xavier, have players cited in an explosive and well-researched and factually corroborated report linking at least one big name player to agent payments or “loans.” Many of those players are currently active.  If the NCAA wants to play by the letter of the law and keep up their vacating wins for use of ineligible players mantra, today might be a good time to slap down a $20 bet on Wofford to win the National Title.

Of course, with the 14-year, $10.8 Billion (intentionally mis-capitalized) contract CBS signed with the NCAA to broadcast their signature event, you can also bet they will find SOME way to sort this out in April instead of now.

sean millerIt’s a mess.  A big, giant, messy mess and by the time I hit “post” another domino might have fallen loudly.  On the bright side, I am now officially over my 2017-2018 Arizona crush.  I no longer think they are a National Title contender… (insert laughter here).

Alas, just because an entire sport is going down in flames doesn’t mean we can’t grab a few winners and (hopefully) make a couple of bucks today.  Here’s my favorite plays on the board.

 

TODAY’S FREE PICKS:

kansasKansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders -2

This is easily the marquee game of the day; a yawn, normal occurrence for Kansas, but a monumental one for Texas Tech.  Kansas can capture at least a share of their 14th straight Big twelve title with a road win today. Texas Tech can tie them for first place in the league by simply defending their home court.  It’s a stunningly quick rise for Tech, who have long been the punching bag of the conference.

Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Michael Beasley… and yet, Kansas’s legendary streak could fall at the hands of Texas Tech.  It’s pretty amazing, frankly.  But will it happen?

Kansas has won three straight since their mulligan at Baylor, winning at Iowa State and West Virginia before emasculating Oklahoma at home this week.  Texas Tech has dropped two straight, losing at Baylor and Oklahoma State.  Yes, they return home today, but the moment feels awfully big to bank on a return to excellence.

Every year we try to get smart and to get cute and to sell ourselves reasons why KU will finally be dethroned.  It hasn’t been a good bet.

I’ll go with the Jayhawks to be the one source of normalcy amidst the college hoops chaos.

TODAY’S PICK:  KANSAS JAYHAWKS +2

 

Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks -2

Um… so about Arizona.  Let’s ASSUME DeAndre Ayton will never play another college game.  Ditto for Allonzo Trier.  Add in the insane chaos around the Wildcats right now, and this game feels like free money.  It was still on the board in a few places, but I can’t imagine this line won’t be volatile and ever-shifting.  Apologies if you go to look this one up and things have changed mightily.  For now, I’m locked in on Oregon laying the two.

TODAY’S PICK: OREGON DUCKS -2

 

trae youngKansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners -3

It is fashionable to bash the Sooners and Trae Young today, and it isn’t completely without merit.  OU has nose-dived from Top Ten heights to bubble status thanks to a six-game losing streak.  So is it foolish to hang on to a glimmer of hope today?  Well. No.

The Sooners dropped the majority of their last six on the road, and they DO play in the Big Twelve, where every game is a tough game. As Seth Greenberg would say, there are no rocking chair games in this league. They close with two of three at home against teams they will be favored against; today and Iowa State, and have a winnable game at Baylor (though their road woes are well chronicled).

I’m not “all out” on OU or Trae Young just yet.

Kansas State remains a fellow bubble team, though they should be pretty stable at 20-8 after winning four of their last five games.  However, in that streak, while OU was losing at Texas Tech and Kansas, K-State was winning at home against Texas and Iowa State.

Sometimes streaks are a function of schedule, so dismissing OU today would be a mistake.  I think they get a HUGE season-saving win today at home.

TODAY’S PICK: OKLAHOMA SOONERS -3

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2023 CFB Premium Pick Results 

GOSOONERS         3-4 (42.86%)
PEZGORDO           9-15 (37.50%)

YTD RECORD       12-19 (38.71%)