For tonight’s game, I really like a total that has seen some serious line movement south since open. The total has dropped quite a few points since open, and now I really like the play as an over. The game I’m referencing is West Virginia vs TCU and the total is currently 156 at most spots.

These two offenses are two of the most efficient offenses in CBB, but WVU plays very good defense which is why the under is being bet here. The issue I have with this is that the line has moved so far down that is becomes an over play based on my sims. Whenever you approach a game, you need to have a number in mind in which you’d bet either side. You hear people all the time claim one side will destroy the other or bet the over both those teams will fly over the total. People often speak like this without knowing the betting line even though its the most important part. If this total stayed at 160,(which was the opening line) this is a no bet for me. Once it moved below 157 though, it become an over play for me, and now at 156 even better.

With this line tight at 3, assumes that TCU will hang in with WVU throughout. TCU can score quick, but also give up plenty as well. TCU doesn’t hold team far below their season average even when they do, so expect WVU to get their 80+. As long as TCU keeps pace, which again Vegas certainly expect, this will be a down the wire high scoring game going over the total. We have a few points hedged in our direction, so I’ll gladly take them making this bet +EV for me.

WVU vs TCU OVER 156