Vikings -3 @ Eagles

Take the Eagles calculation with a grain of salt, as their data is still heavily skewed by Carson Wentz’ elite play.  Since Foles has taken over they have not been able to pass with the same level of efficiency.  I would probably lean Minnesota despite the Eagles’ Money Zone calculation.  The Vikings finished the regular season ranked #1 in passer rating differential and I think they have proven to be the most balanced team in football.  Throw in the momentum gained by their miraculous win last week, and I think you should be looking at the first team to ever host the Super Bowl.

Jaguars +7.5 @ Patriots

My stance on the Jaguars is well documented.  They had great value as a TD+ dog last week just like they do this week.  Although the Steelers ended up with 40+ points, the Jaguars defense set the tone early by forcing turnovers and getting key 4th down stops.  They should have won in a blowout if they hadn’t given up several fourth down prayers to Big Ben.  They actually come into this game with a better PRD than the Patriots which I don’t think anyone on the planet expected at the start of this season.  

The Jaguars vulnerability down field shouldn’t come into play against the Patriots short to medium range passing attack.  I think the Jaguars have as good a chance as any defense in slowing down the Patriots with their ability to bring intense pressure without blitzing.  However, I have yet to see a defense slow down Brady when he’s dialed in and throwing quickly to his running backs when they have favorable matchups with linebackers.  Bortles played a poised, turnover free game last week and he will need to duplicate that effort for the Jaguars to remain competitive.  Belichick will likely have his defense take away the easy throws and force him to throw downfield and into tighter windows.  I also would be shocked if Jacksonville had any success running, as the Patriots almost always take away your best weapon.

The last Wildcard in this game is Brady’s health.  If his hand is truly damaged that could give Jacksonville a great chance to win.  Vegas is treating the injury seriously as the spread has come down to 7.5 on multiple sports books.  For all these reasons, I think I’d lean Jacksonville in this contest.

Good luck guys!