Been through a tough stretch these last two games with opposing teams shooting lights out. This is par for the course though. As long as you stay within your means, long term, these plays will be very profitable for you. I have two home teams tonight that offer a few points of edge in my simulations. Trust the process.

Elon vs James Madison +2.5

Get this line early because I expect it to move down. If you’re a box score guy Elon may appear to be a much better team, but take a deeper dive and you’ll notice James Madison has been on the unfortunate end of some tough losses.

All the numbers in the world, cannot dictate a team’s desperation level, especially a team that has been competitive against quality teams throughout their 7 game losing streak. I have this line as pick myself, so I’ll happily take the 2.5 freebies bringing this game to +EV for me. James Madison has come out of the gate quick during this 7 game losing stretch and just tends to lose it’s luster throughout. I expect them to come out of the gate fast again tonight and hold serve throughout, even possibly steal a win at home.

UNC Greensboro -18.5 vs The Citadel

My sims have this line actually at Greensboro -22.5, so four points lean in my favor here, making it +EV for me. This number may seem big for these two teams, but here’s why it’s so high. The Citadel is ranked 346 in adjusted defensive efficiency and has surrendered 100+ in four straight games. Greensboro is also returning home after a three game road stretch and expect them to come out with plenty of energy.

Greensboro is ranked 7th in the nation in points allowed, and the Citadel is ranked 350 is points against. As per Kenpom, in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency Citadel is 346. Expect plenty of easy buckets for UNC Greensboro en route to a blowout tonight. The Citadel looked respectable in their last OT win vs Chattanooga, but it’s worth noting Chattanooga is the bottom feeder of this conference, The Citadel will find it very difficult to score tonight, while UNC will feast on easy buckets. Lay the big number here, as many indicators have this at 20+ in favor of UNC Greensboro.