The Animal goes 3-0 today in the NFL Playoffs. How about a repeat tomorrow?

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3* Philadelphia +3

4* New England -13

3* New England ‘OVER’ 48

It’s hard to ignore the following:  The Eagles were plus 96 yards per game with Wentz as their starter but are minus 101 yards per games with Foles in three outings.  One website this week that evaluates strength of schedule has Atlanta playing the second most-difficult in the NFC South where three teams qualified for the post-season while Philly was #24 in the category.  I found this to be incredible. Not only are the Falcons the only team in the NFC that qualified for the playoffs a second-straight season but they are the only team remaining that ranks in the top-10 in both offense and defense over the course of the last month (four weeks). Meanwhile the Eagles are the only team in the BOTTOM-10 in both categories.  The Birds are the first #1 seed to enter as a home underdog in their first post-season game, a reflection on how poorly Foles has played.  Atlanta is traveling for the third time in four weeks and I’m a bit surprised really to see them as a road favorite.  Atlanta is very solid in the special teams with kicker Matt Bryant just about automatic along with punter Matt Bosher.  Since my move away from Georgia the Falcons have been tough for me to handicap.  I’m not especially thrilled with the way Matt Ryan has performed recently but he’s still miles ahead of Nick Foles, although I do expect Foles to play better than he’s looked with two weeks to prepare.  This is the Falcons’ first cold-weather game this year.  The Eagle receiving trio of Jeffery, Ertz, and Agholor combined for 25 receiving TD passes this year while Falcon received totaled just 21.  Ryan’s numbers were way down. I don’t think the Philly defense is getting enough credit here as they were #1 versus the run and #4 in total yards.  The last three visiting teams to play at Lincoln Financial have scored a combined 19-points. Again, I’m probably the wrong guy to ask when it comes to the Falcons these days, but I’m going with the Eagles to win this game outright.  I don’t think there’s near the pressure on Philly with Foles in the lineup and I think Coach Pederson will have a gameplan in place to upgrade the production of his back-up QB.  The Eagles were #3 in running the football on offense and I love January underdogs in the northeast that can stop the run and move the chains by running.  Also I like the fact defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz held the Falcons to 15 points and 303 total yards in the 24-15 win last year on 11/13/2016 when the Falcon offense was virtually unstoppable. It’s nowhere nearly as productive now and between that and the cold weather in the forecast I’m hoping Atlanta struggles here. Home dogs in the playoffs are 26-13-2 ATS and the hounds  were barking last week at 4-0 ATS.

There’s no other way of disguising this. Tennessee was flat out lucky to get past Kansas City.  Travis Kelce was open the entire first half (4 catches/66 yards) last week and I can’t even imagine what Gronkowski is capable of in this game. If Kelce doesn’t get hurt, the Chiefs win and likely win comfortably.  I have no idea what the strategy was between Andy Reid and Alex Smith in the second half but they certainly blew the game.  Plus that touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota deflected off the KC player (should have been picked) and bouncing right back into Mariota’s hands for a touchdown was one in a million (second time in NFL history).  New England has won six of their last seven games off a bye week by 18 points or more. Tennessee is really hoping to get out early, run Derrick Henry, and control the clock. But the New England defense is slightly better statistically than KC and Tom Brady is light years ahead of Alex Smith.  The Tennessee secondary is total crap and there’s no shot at any precipitation according to weather.com.  But it will be in the 20’s around kickoff but that’s to be expected with little or no wind.  New England 11-2 ATS recently when laying double digits and MOST IMPORTANTLY they tend to excel in the face of adversity. The bullshit story the past week of internal resentment between owner Kraft, Coach Belichick, and QB Brady will only spur the Patriots on.  The Patriots had one of the best ATS seasons ever at 16-3 this year.  Plus they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a #1 seed.  The bottom line is Mariota has thrown more picks (16) than touchdowns (15) this year and I think it’s going to be very difficult for lady luck to shine on the Titans again here after their almost-unbelievable 18-point second-half comeback greatly assisted by the stupidity of Reid and Smith. I for one can’t step in front of this train and would rather lose with the Pats than back the Titans and be in prayer-formation the entire game.

If New England has a weakness it’s certainly against the run allowing 4.7 yards a carry or 2nd worst in the league.  The problem here for the Titans is they are going to have to run even if they are trailing by double-digits early.  It may be their only option.  The Patriots have had trouble in the past with mobile quarterbacks and Mariota can certainly escape the pocket and has been running quite often of late.  DeShaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Alex Smith all had great games versus the Patriots combined for 108 points and beating them 2/3.  Certainly Derrick Henry can run the ball effectively and is probably more efficient as the feature back with DeMarco Murray sidelined.  But again the problem for Tennessee is it’s almost impossible to get a good rush on Brady because he anticipate it so well and can audible dump passes to James White, Dion Lewis, or Rex Burkhead out of the backfield. Plus there’s no way the Titans can stop Gronkowski down the middle and Danny Amendola has come on recently with 15 catches in his last four games.  Plus Brandin Cooks is still the #1 target for Brady and is capable of stretching the field.  New England has won the last six meetings with Tennessee going 5-1 ATS and the victories have been by an average of 21-points per game. The home team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 Tennessee games.  The bottom line here is I believe New England will score between 31 and 38 points in this game. Can Tennessee get to 14?  I think so. Go ‘OVER’.