The draft is complete, the schedule has been released, and most teams are nearing a finished product.  Today, I want to look closely at the ATS records of every team and then compare those records to their final Passer Rating Differential – the most important statistic in football!

Here are 3 NFL teams I expect to underachieve against the spread:

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys were excellent ATS going 10-7 in 2016 (58.82%). Because of their record from last season, combined with the love they have from the betting public, you will see the Cowboys as favorites in many of their games. I see Dallas in the 10-6 range overall, but most likely an under .500 record ATS. Basically, the Dallas Cowboys are my Carolina Panthers of 2017 – here’s why:

First, let’s look at last season and see how many things went right for this team.  They wildly overachieved for the entire year.  In 2016, Dallas finished 8th in points allowed.  With the talent of their offense, and their world class ability to control the clock, it’s not surprising to see how much success they had.

What is surprising is that despite finishing so high in points allowed, they finished just 24th in defensive passer rating at 94.2.  In 2015, they finished with the exact same defensive rating, and that landed them in the bottom half of the league in points allowed.  I think the 2015 number is much more indicative of how the defense will fare in 2017.

The Cowboy’s defense will also be replacing almost all of its 2016 secondary (Claiborne, Wilcox, Carr, and Church are all out).  Say what you want about the talent they had last year, but either way, starting from scratch is not an enviable position for any general manager.

On the offensive side, there’s no disputing that Dak Prescott was phenomenal last year (103.00 Passer Rating).  But what’s dangerous about him is that he’s a mobile QB entering his 2nd season following a stellar rookie campaign. Take a look at what happened to some of the other QBs in similar situations following an impressive rookie season (1st real playing time):

Of course, these are not perfect comparisons, but you can see what happens once teams have film to work with the following year.  You might recall that both Griffin and Kaepernick were considered the future of their franchises too…

The Next issue is the absolutely arduous schedule that the Cowboys have been dealt. @Denver, @Arizona, Green Bay, @Atlanta, @Oakland, KC, and hosting Seattle are some of the highlights that jump off the page. Not to mention the always grueling division games with Washington, Philly, and the Giants. Of the entire schedule, the Rams and 49ers are the only layups.  All other games have the potential to be hard fought and competitive.

Last, but certainly not least, is the number of highly volatile personalities on this team.  If they get off to a rocky start, this team has the potential to explode.  Dez Bryant and Zeke Elliot are the type of guys you want on a front-running team.  However, if they see some bumps in the road early on, don’t rule out the potential of infighting, coaching issues, or sideline meltdowns.  And boy does Dak have a tough test right out of the gate:

Just remember, almost everything went right for this team in 2016, just like everything went right for the 2015 Panthers!

Detroit Lions

Last year was an epic season for the Lions even though they finished slightly below .500 at 8-9 ATS. Matt Stafford set an NFL record with 8 comeback victories in the 4^th Quarter in 2016 – a simply amazing number.  But although Stafford has turned around his career over the last year and a half, he can’t be expected to keep bailing out the defense game after game.

Stafford still has decent weapons with Golden Tate and Marvin Jones on the outside, but don’t underestimate the loss of Anquan Boldin.  Boldin has made a career out of making incredible catches in traffic down the stretch of close games.  In 2016, Boldin had 8 TD’s and 67 catches, with a reception rate of 70.5% (this means he caught 70.5% of passes that he was targeted on).  All of those numbers indicate how comfortable Stafford was when throwing to him.  To compare, Julian Edelman (widely considered a reliable target) has never topped 70% in his entire career.  Boldin’s ability to get open in tight spots is not easily replaceable.

The most telling stat for the 2016 Lions was their league worst 107.2 Defensive Passer Rating.  To put that in perspective, Tom Brady’s career QB rating is 97.2.  So on average in 2016, the teams that lined up against Detroit outperformed Brady’s career average performance by about 10%, and that list includes Case Keenum!  The Saints defense of 2015 was historically the worst at just over 110, and the Lions were only a few points better.  To make matters worse, the Lions had an unspeakable defensive rating of 111 while on the road.

One of the reasons why their defense performed so poorly against the pass was their lack of production on the defensive line.  In 2016, the Lions had 26 sacks (which ranked 31^st in the NFL).  Only the Raiders, with 25, were worse.  Ziggy Ansah at defensive end is a phenomenal talent no doubt, but he doesn’t have much help.  Haloti Ngata is not the player he once was, and I just don’t think they did enough in the draft/free agency to correct the pass rush.

The Lions play in a competitive division with the Packers and Vikings, and even the Bears seem to give them trouble.  They also have to play the AFC North (Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers) and NFC South (Falcons, Saints, Bucs, and Panthers).  I predict both of these divisions will have bounce back years.

Look for me to go against the Lions early on in the season, especially if they are favorites.  I was burned by Stafford several times last season, but I just don’t think that last-minute, Tebow-like comebacks are sustainable for the long run.

New England Patriots

Last year was an epic season for the Pats. Their improbable Superbowl victory, in addition to their stellar 16-3 ATS record (Best in NFL), made it a season to remember.  What’s even crazier is that many people believe this team has gotten even better in the offseason by adding Stephon Gilmore, Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen, and Kony Ealy.  It appears they’re loading up to get Brady one more title.

So why are we avoiding the Pats?  First off, I want to point out what happened to the best 3 teams ATS in 2015:

As you can see, Vegas has a tendency to inflate the spreads of teams that have the best records ATS in the season before.  And this year, in my opinion, we will see some unprecedented spreads for the Patriots.  The books got destroyed for much of last season, as public bettors had a field day betting the elite teams to win all year.  Most sharp bettors did not fare well in 2016.  In my opinion, there will be a correction, just like there always seems to be in the stock market.

I also want to use history as a lesson here. The last time the Patriots really loaded up in an offseason was 2007 when they traded for Moss and Welker, and signed Adelius Thomas and Donte Stallworth.  As you all remember it was the 18-1 season, but how were they against the spread? 

You may have flashbacks about the blowouts this team had, but almost all of them were in the first half of the season.  They started 8-0 ATS, but managed to finish just 2-9 down the stretch.  Your memories are probably full of 50-point games and laughable blowouts, but the numbers against the spread tell a different story.  The upcoming season has a similar feel to me — the public got their money’s worth last year and can’t wait to double down this year.  Look for me to mostly avoid the Pats this season, or go against them in certain spots.

On field, there’s not a lot to criticize.  This is the most balanced team in the NFL and I expect them to finish near the top in Passer Rating Differential (as they do almost every year).  The AFC East is even weaker than normal, but we could be talking about some college-like spreads in these matchups as they get closer.

Stay tuned for more!

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Nicholas Shorestein is an NFL writer & handicapper. He writes about NFL analytics and handicapping for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about the NFL on his blog ShoresteinSays.com. You can follow him on twitter @n_shorestein.

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