For all the crazy games yesterday, bubble-bursting and seed-shifting action, the story the morning after is, of course, Grayson Allen.  Trouble and controversy just seem to follow the Duke junior wherever he goes – this time because of an apparent elbow thrown in the first half of the 90-83 loss at North Carolina. 

The more IMPORTANT story is that North Carolina beat their arch rival and won the ACC – arguably the best single-season of any conference in the modern college basketball era, yet all most people want to talk about is Grayson, America’s new sports villain.

But there was far more than a few elbows and ACC action yesterday.  Kansas won on the road at Oklahoma State to all but lock up a #1 seed for the Tournament, ditto for Villanova after their massive blowout win at Georgetown.  Kentucky and Louisville both won tough games to keep trending towards #2 seeds, and all three Pac-12 powers won to stay on track for an amazing and entertaining Pac-12 Tournament.

Only Butler and Florida took potential seed-damaging losses within the projected top four seed lines, so things remain largely where they have been most of the season; WIDE OPEN.  Here’s a look at a Vegas casino’s most recent updated future odds to win the tournament:

UCLA 6-1
Duke 7-1
North Carolina 7-1
Kansas 15-2
Gonzaga 15-2
Kentucky 9-1
Villanova 10-1
Louisville 12-1
Oregon 12-1
Arizona 15-1

The most interesting thing, to me at least, is how low Duke remains.  Much of this is the lingering preseason money that went to the overwhelming favorites.  I would imagine this will widen closer to actual tournament, but it seems to me like the casinos are still a little gunshy on getting any more Duke action, juuuuuust in case the Blue Devils finally figure it out.  There seems to be some real value on the bottom with the two Pac-12 teams who finished AHEAD of UCLA, but again, with future wagers, larger national perception grabs the wheel and drives.

It should be a fun final day of the regular season – enjoy today’s relative calm before the bubble-bursting insanity of the upcoming week of conference tournament action.  With SO many teams boasting similar resumes in nearly every league, there are going to be a ton of impactful games on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Today’s Favorite Plays:

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers -7

Wisconsin was the toast of the town three weeks ago, riding an eight-game winning streak and leading the Big Ten standings.  Since then, the bottom has fallen out as the Badgers have dropped five of six games and have lost three straight entering tonight’s finale with Minnesota.

Both are 11-6 in the Big Ten, but Minnesota certainly enters with a lot less fanfare and far less national recognition.  Wisconsin is STILL ranked, while Minny hasn’t sniffed the polls in a while.  Yet Minnesota is on a seven-game winning streak that includes wins at Maryland and at Illinois and wins over Michigan and Indiana at home.

Seven points is a lot to lay in this spot on a reeling Badger team.  I’ll take Minnesota and the points and will put Bucky on official “upset alert.”

My Pick:  Minnesota Golden Gophers +7

 

Purdue Boilermakers -3.5 at Northwestern Wildcats

Let’s stay in the Big Ten for our second pick.  Look, I like Northwestern, you like Northwestern, we are ALL rooting for Northwestern.  But that doesn’t mean they are going to handle the best team in the Big ten and a legit Final Four sleeper with National POY candidate Caleb Swanigan today in Evanston.  In fact, I’d be surprised if they won this game, despite the relatively slim margin in Vegas.

Purdue has won seven of their last eight games and won four of them by double digits, including their “reality check” 80-59 beat-down of the Wildcats in West Lafayette a month ago.  Northwestern is fresh off an AMAZING dramatic, change-the-history-of-the-program win against Michigan, but is still losers of five of their last eight games overall.

Purdue has had some ATS road struggles in conference at just 3-5 ATS and 5-3 SU, but they are 13-3 as a favorite this season, which means they generally handle their business in games like today.  They LOOKED a lot better than Northwestern when the two teams were on the floor together, and while venue matters a great deal in college basketball, I think the size discrepancy today will be a little too much for Northwestern to handle.  Look for the Wildcats to put up a valiant effort but come up short against a better team today.

My Pick:  Purdue Boilermakers -3.5

 

Those are my two favorite plays on the board today, but I will also have an eye on the Wichita State and Illinois State game.  If last year’s Committee omissions of Valpo and St. Mary’s taught us anything, it is that neither of these teams would be wise to leave their NCAA Tournament status to chance (especially Illinois State who doesn’t have the same name equity and trust built up as do the Shockers).

Enjoy a great day of action – I am sure we will be talking LOTS next week with all the bounty of action upcoming!