Last Saturday we took a nice look at the crowded NCAA Bubble picture.  A week later, the bubble isn’t any less crowded, though several teams have significantly helped or hurt their position.  In the Big Ten, Northwestern is finally OFF the bubble and into safely in territory thanks to their win at Wisconsin.  Michigan took a big step in the right direction with their win over the Badgers and Indiana is all but done after yet another loss (a loss to Minnesota today seals their fate).  The Big East also got more interesting with both Providence and Seton Hall notching big home wins over Xavier and Creighton and the ACC picture is fluid, just because 11 of 15 teams are still alive which means one is nearly always going to playing another on a given day.

We’ve had a nice run this season, still checking in at well over 62% on the season across all published platforms with well over 100 picks under our belt.  It’s a crowded Saturday of action, so lets see if we can stack a few more winners on the 30-19-1 ATS record here at The Saturday Edge.

 

Today’s Favorite Plays:

Clemson Tigers at Miami Hurricanes -3

Clemson might be the most talked about team in college basketball right now.  And it isn’t because of their stellar play, rather it is because many pundits STILL have them projected IN the Field of 68 despite a 4-9 record in conference play.  I personally lean “just out” but hey, a lot of these people get paid to project pretty accurately, so it’s fair to say at the worst, Clemson is RIGHT in the mix.

But they have a tough challenge today visiting a Miami team who ALSO needs some wins down the stretch to feel safely included in the field.  The Canes have been very good at home in ACC play, posting a 5-2 record with their two losses coming to Notre Dame and Florida State, and with wins over Duke and North Carolina, both Final Four caliber teams, as well as Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and NC State.

I’m a little surprised Miami isn’t 4.5 to 5 in this spot.  I know they’ve notoriously played a lot of close games this season, but of all their road losses only one, the 64-62 @Duke was within three points.

The Tigers are still a good team despite the record, but this line feels a little dismissive of Miami’s caliber.  You can get the better basketball team who is playing for a lot in their own right at home against a team, that for all their competitiveness, is STILL 4-9 in conference play with double-digit losses to Georgia Tech and losses at Louisville and FSU by a combined 71 points.

MY PICK:  MIAMI HURRICANES -3.5

 

Villanova Wildcats -6 at Seton Hall Pirates

I feel like this happens a lot in the Big East: “Team X has a borderline resume but has a great chance to make their season with a home game against Villanova.”  And generally, Villanova kicks their ass.  So far this season, Nova has won comfortably in Creighton and at Xavier (Creighton before Watson’s injury, X without Sumner but WITH Blueitt).  They got clipped at Marquette in a weird one, and did lose at Butler, but overall, Villanova’s road chops are bonafide.

Seton Hall needs it today, there’s no denying.  They enter 16-9 (6-7) and VERY much in bubble-land.  They have the nice win over Creighton this week and have won three of four with a pair of two-point wins @Georgetown and over Providence sandwiched around a bad loss at St. John’s.

Seton Hall is a decent ballclub.  They fit right in with the 25-50^th teams in the country in one big mediocre jumble.  But Villanova is VILLANOVA.  The undisputed BEAST of the B-East. The veteran-laden defending National Champions.  The Josh Hart National POY Candidate-led squad with excellent shooting, offensive efficiency, defensive toughness and solid point guard play.

In short, Nova is too much for the Hall.  Seton Hall has just a single loss at home this season, but they are 1-5 as an underdog.  Villanova has struggled ATS over the last three weeks, but some of that is how wide their margins have gotten.  They haven’t LOST any of these games, nor have they been frightened in many.  They just aren’t covering the huge pile of points.  Today is a reasonable number at 6.5 and I think they’ll get over it with a bucket or two to spare.

Today’s Pick:  VILLANOVA WILDCATS -6.5

 

In the 1pm block you KNOW you want to pick Duke laying the eleven against Wake Forest.  You want to do it.  I want to do it.  But I’m going to give the Duke ban one more game, JUST to make sure they can sustain this edge and focus in a game they should win, but that the other team HAS to win… Instead, let’s head here…

 

Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears -1.5

This is THE game on the schedule today with all due respect to Virginia and North Carolina which is an excellent game with some ACC Title implications.  Baylor is 1-9 SU in their last ten games against Kansas, so take the Hawks because they ALWAYS win, right?

Well, no.

Those of you who read regularly or follow on Twitter (@TheMarchManiacs) know I am not a huge historical matchup fan in college hoops.  The reason?  It isn’t that relevant in most major programs.  The teams and rosters flip every few years (or less if you are KU) so the teams are completely different.  I don’t subscribe to the “coach owning another coach” theory is MOST instances (Tony Bennett is, however, Rick Pitino’s Daddy).  But does Bill Self “own” Scott Drew?  No more than he owns any other Big XII coach.  And today is Baylor’s GOLDEN opportunity to finally slay the dragon.

Baylor is 5-1 at home in conference and 22-3 overall this season with a narrow loss at Kansas and then the hangover lone home loss to K-State 56-54.  Aside from that three day stretch and a pasting in Morgantown, this team has been as consistent as any non-Gonzaga team in the nation.

Here’s an interesting fact:  Kansas is 1-8-1 ATS in conference play this season and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five – all since the off-court trouble started swirling around this team.  Is it causal? I have no idea – we aren’t there – but it sure as heck can’t HELP.

I think Baylor gets ‘em today and I wouldn’t be surprised if they stretch it out a bit at the end similar to how West Virginia did when they hosted the ‘Hawks a few weeks back.

And for the record – I still think Kansas is in the top three in the country, but this is a road game against a Top 7-8 team.  KU isn’t covering against anyone, so it doesn’t seem wise to think they’d reverse course on the road against a team of this caliber.

Today’s Pick:  BAYLOR BEARS -1.5

 

St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Dayton Flyers -7

This probably isn’t a game anyone is watching with so many other delicious options on the buffet table, but it is a line I like.  Dayton is a blistering 14-7-1 ATS this season and is 8-3-1 ATS in conference play.  They are a solid NCAA Tourney team that got lost a little bit in the shuffle and the din of mid-major mediocrity this season.  They have a decent wins at Alabama and over Vandy, but narrowly missed in their big opportunities against St. Mary’s and Northwestern, losing by a combined 5 points and thus failing to get the marquee non-con win that it takes for respect in today’s A-10.  But don’t sleep on Archie Miller (you know NC State isn’t!) and the Flyers.

Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure, in addition to having the dumbest mascot name in the league (seriously, Gonzaga are “the Zags” and Duke are “the Dookies” only as colloquialisms, not as intended literal mascots), is also a mediocre ballclub.  They enter at a respectable 16-9 (8-5) but thy have losses to Little Rock, UNC Wilmington, Canisius, and a 90-74 home loss to Dayton.  To think they are going to turn it around that much on the ROAD today is ambitious.

Dayton is eyeing a respectable seed in a few weeks and is unlikely to let their focus wane this afternoon at home.  They’ve won five in a row and 13 of 15.  I look for them to notch an easy sixth today.

Today’s Pick:  DAYTON FLYERS -7

 

Good luck today everyone – and as always, feel free to chat, argue, agree or (gently) troll on Twitter @TheMarchManiacs