2016-17 Big Ten Bowl Preview

One bowl game featuring a Big Ten team is in the books as the Maryland Terrapins fell to 6-7 with a close loss to Boston College. The rest of the Big Ten bowl action is comprehensively previewed below:

 

-National Funding Holiday Bowl-

Minnesota vs. Washington State (-10)

Tuesday – December 27 – 7 p.m.

This is traditionally a very fun bowl game and it annually serves as a “Rose Bowl-lite” contest between mid-tier Big Ten and PAC-12 teams. This year’s matchup  features a pair of 8-4 teams in the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Washington State Cougars. Washington State dropped their final two games of the season and fell from a potential spot in the Rose Bowl into this game. Minnesota held serve all season and won the games they were expected to, falling in line behind Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska in the Big Ten West. It has been an eventful couple of weeks for the Gophers as a player boycott threatened to alter this game but they are in San Diego and presumably ready to notch what would be their best win of the season. This game opened at 6.5 and has climbed to ten points due to the unrest surrounding the Gopher program. Washington State is averaging 39 points per game and surrendering 29 points per game while the Gophers are giving up only 22 points per game. The Cougars passing attack, led by the accurate Luke Falk, is one of the best in the country and I expect WSU to find some success through the air. The game plan for Minnesota will undoubtedly be to control the ball with the rushing duo of Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks. Both are averaging nearly five yards per carry. Add in the running ability of senior Mitch Leidner and Minnesota is capable of pounding the rock and killing the clock. I think the Cougars have too much firepower and they’ll ultimately take this victory but I would bet on the Gophers at +10. As a bonus, I’d bet on the under with the total set at 61.

 

-New Era Pinstripe Bowl-

Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs. Northwestern

Wednesday – December 28 – 2 p.m.

The Pinstripe Bowl saw an overtime thriller between Duke and Indiana in 2015. I do not think this game will nearly as thrilling but the Panthers are a blast to watch and I think they will cruise to a win over the Northwestern Wildcats in New York City. Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator Matt Canada is now the OC for Ed Orgeron and the LSU Tigers and he helped build this offense into a real juggernaut as Pitt turned into the fourth best offense in the country (S&P+) this season. They are strong on the ground with James Conner (playing his final college game), Quadree Henderson and Chawntez Moss plus quarterback Nathan Peterman can run as well. Peterman has been a revelation through the air though as he thrown for 26 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Jester Weah and tight end Scott Orndoff are both very good receivers and Pittsburgh uses their personnel in very unique ways that has maximized their skills. Northwestern’s defense has been okay but they gave up 21 points to Illinois, 21 to Wisconsin, 24 to Ohio State, 40 to Michigan State and 31 to Iowa. This is not an elite unit. In addition, Northwestern has the 67^th ranked offense and I don’t think they have nearly enough firepower to stick with the Pittsburgh Panthers. I like the over (listed at 65) and I love Pittsburgh as 4.5 point favorites on the back of a big game for James Conner.

 

-Foster Farms Bowl-

Indiana vs. Utah (-5.5)

Wednesday, December 28 at 8:30 p.m. 

The Utah Utes are a terrific 9-1 in bowl games under head coach Kyle Whittingham while IU head coach Tom Allen will be making his debut as an FBS head coach (he was promoted from DC to head coach when Kevin Wilson resigned). The disparity between bowl experience and general program prestige is quite vast. The Utes are ranked in the top 25 and they had a shot at the Rose Bowl just a few short weeks ago. That being said, the gap between these two squads isn’t nearly as big as a first glance would suggest. The two teams are very similar in S&P+ offensive and defensive rankings and the intangible motivation factor would seem to heavily favor the underdog Hoosiers. IU has played a very difficult schedule and they battled elite teams like Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State tooth and nail before eventually falling and finishing at 6-6. The Hoosiers will have an opportunity to find success through the air if the offensive line, which should be healthy now, can protect Richard Lagow from Utah’s ferocious defensive line. IU’s trio of receivers is better than people think and I think they can beat Utah’s secondary. The Utes are streaky on offense and there’s no telling which Troy Williams will show up but IU has been stout against the run so the erratic Williams will need to have a good game when given a chance. I can understand why Utah is favored and the 5.5 point spread isn’t nearly as juicy as the 12 points you could have gotten when this game opened but I like the Hoosiers as underdogs and I like betting the under on a posted total of 56.

 

 

-Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl-

Nebraska vs. Tennessee (-4)

Friday, December 30 at 3:30 p.m.

One of the best mid-tier bowl matchups of the season is the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Tennessee Volunteers battling in a Big Ten versus SEC clash. Both teams were likely hoping for more a month or two into the season but some disappointing losses dropped them to Nashville. The Vols are four point favorites but most advanced statistics models project the Nebraska Cornhuskers as victors. Tennessee is 8-4 with losses to Vanderbilt (who just got shellacked by NC State) and South Carolina while Nebraska is 9-3 a close loss to Wisconsin and blowout defeats to Iowa and Ohio State. Tommy Armstrong is healthy now and I like the Huskers offense to be able to move the ball against the beaten up Volunteers defense. Tennessee’s attack has been inconsistent but they are certainly capable. These are two very similar teams and I’d expect a very close and high-scoring game. In those instances, give me the team getting points. I’ll take Nebraska at +4.

 

-Capital One Orange Bowl-

Michigan (-7) vs. Florida State

Friday, December 30 at 8:00 p.m.

The Michigan Wolverines had dreams of a Big Ten Championship, a trip to the College Football Playoff and a national title all dashed in a heartbreaking loss in Columbus to archrival Ohio State. However, they still get to play in a great bowl game and this is one of the best non-playoff matchups this season as two traditional powers with terrific talent clash. Michigan is loaded with upperclassmen that are playing in their final collegiate bowl game and this is being viewed by many as a chance for that group to validate the progress they’ve made in bringing UM back to the forefront of college football and I think they’ll play an inspired game and handle a Seminoles team that never quite added up to the sum of its parts. Michigan’s defense will be the best unit for either team and I think they’ll lock up Florida State’s offense, which can become one-dimensional at times. I think Deondre Francois has shown he can be a terrific quarterback as soon as next season but he’s not quite there yet and I don’t love the Florida State receivers (the talent is there, they’ve underwhelmed for me though). Dalvin Cook is underappreciated nationally but when this Michigan defense has this much time to prepare and key in on someone, I think they’ll be able to contain him. Michigan’s offense struggled without a 100% healthy Wilton Speight but he’s back and ready to go and I definitely believe they would have knocked off the Buckeyes if he was healthy in that game. While I’m not anticipating a complete blowout, give me the Wolverines at -7.

 

-Playstation Fiesta Bowl-

Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Clemson

Saturday, December 31 at 7:00 p.m.

There’s not many closer games, on paper, than this one as Ohio State and Clemson will battle in Glendale in one of the two College Football Playoff semifinals. The biggest advantage for the Buckeyes appears to be their second ranked rushing attack against Clemson’s 32^nd ranked rush defense. Mike Weber, J.T. Barrett, Curtis Samuel and Demario McCall all average more than five yards per carry (McCall only has 49 carries and he’s unlikely to be a large factor in this one) and Clemson has been dinged by strong rushing attacks. While the Tigers have elite talent on their defense, particularly along the defensive line when opponents try to pass, I’m underwhelmed by their level of consistency and some lapses in their secondary. I expect Ohio State’s Urban Meyer to use the long layoff to find some ways to hurt the Tigers defense. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes have been a terrific defense all season but Clemson has a quarterback capable of getting red hot and carrying his team to a victory over anyone. In addition, Deshaun Watson has perhaps the best array of weapons in the country at his disposal. Wayne Gallman has 15 touchdowns and an average of 5.1 yards per carry. Mike Williams, Artavis Scott, Deon Cain, Jordan Leggett and Hunter Renfrow are all very dangerous and the Clemson offense will be Ohio State’s toughest challenge of the season. I’m not confident of any pick in this game but I’ve learned it is never wise to bet against Urban Meyer when he’s given ample time to prepare so I’d lean towards Ohio State as small favorites.

 

–Outback Bowl-

Florida (-3) vs. Iowa

Monday, January 2, 1:00

Beyond the general perception of “SEC” and “Florida”, I have no clue why the Gators are favored in this matchup. Iowa played the best football of their season over the final three games as they stomped Nebraska and Illinois and stunned Michigan to finish at 8-4. Florida is also 8-4 but they lost three of their last five games and their offense is, well, bad. There’s no sugar-coating it. They struggled mightily against every solid defense they played and I see no reason for optimism as they take on Iowa’s 12^th-ranked defense. While the Hawkeyes will probably struggle to score against Florida’s very good defense, there is at least evidence that they are capable of moving the ball against good defenses (40 against Nebraska, 31 against Northwestern). I don’t see the Hawkeyes putting up a ton of points and I certainly don’t expect this game to be a pleasure to watch but I’m taking Iowa to win outright.

 

-Cotton Bowl-

Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5)

Monday, January 2, 1:00

The Western Michigan Broncos earned the spot in a “New Year’s Six” bowl game as the nation’s highest ranked “Group of Five” team. The Wisconsin Badgers came up just short of a trip to the Rose Bowl as they fell to Penn State in a thrilling Big Ten Championship Game. WMU is unbeaten with wins over Northwestern and Illinois in addition to running the table in the MAC. Wisconsin faced a brutal schedule and fell by seven points to Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, finishing at 10-3. This is a very interesting matchup because of WMU’s previous success against Big Ten West opposition but Wisconsin is in a different class than Northwestern and Illinois and I expect that to show up at the Cotton Bowl. The Badgers have the fifth best defense in the country (S&P+) and they are equally comfortable against the run and the pass. That balance will be vital against a Broncos offense that is adept on the ground and in the air. Zach Terrell has 32 touchdowns and only three interceptions but this will be the best pass defense and pass rush that he has seen. I’m a big fan of the running back duo of Jarvion Franklin and Jamaui Bogan but I don’t think they’ll find a ton of running room against this Wisconsin defensive front. I think Western Michigan’s offense will have some success but it will be below their season average of 37.3 points per game and I have serious concerns about their ability to hold up on defense against this Wisconsin offensive line. The Badgers will bludgeon the ball with Corey Clement, Bradrick Shaw and Dare Ogunbowale and WMU has the 94^th best run defense in the nation. That’s a major weakness against an opponent capable of grinding out a game like Wisconsin is. Western Michigan won’t look out of place in this matchup but the Badgers are a tough draw for a team that doesn’t defend the run well. I like Wisconsin to win by a couple of scores and cover the spread.

 

-Rose Bowl-

USC (-6.5) vs. Penn State

Monday, January 2, 5:00

Every year, the late afternoon broadcast from sunny and picturesque Pasadena is one of my favorite things to watch from the cold and gray Midwest. I sit in front of a roaring fire and watch as the Big Ten often gets humbled by a superior team from the PAC-12. This year’s game features undoubtedly two of the nation’s hottest teams as the USC Trojans and Penn State Nittany Lions will duel. Since back-to-back losses at Stanford and Utah, the Trojans have rattled off eight straight victories and propelled themselves into the top ten. They have the 17^th ranked offense (and they’ve scored at least 36 points in five of six games) and the 13^th ranked defense and there are stars all over both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold has been outstanding since taking over for Max Browne and the duo of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers is incredibly dangerous for opponents. Sophomore Ronald Jones is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and he’s an outstanding lead back for this attack. Penn State is very good on defense but they just surrendered 31 to Wisconsin and I don’t think they’ll be able to rattle Darnold or stop USC’s elite passing attack. I think the Trojans get into the mid-30s. The strength of this PSU squad has surprisingly been the offense as OC Joe Moorhead has invigorated this attack and helped turn the Nittany Lions into an exciting squad to watch. Saquon Barkley has had a very nice sophomore season and Trace McSorley has more than 3300 yards with 25 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He’s thrown to a well-balanced and deep receiving corps but Chris Godwin has been the best of the bunch and he’ll draw the most attention from USC’s defense. While I certainly don’t expect this game to resemble the spanking Iowa received from Stanford last season, I do expect the PAC-12 to come out on top once again and I expect the Trojans to cover the 6.5 point spread.