Merry Christmas everyone!  I hope the Holiday season, whatever and however you celebrate was a great one.  And regardless of what Holiday tradition (or none) you subscribe to, I feel pretty confident there is one religion we all share by the sheer virtue of you READING this article; the beautiful religion of college hoops.

I always say a college hoops season is a book with four chapters.  We have just completed the first one, the very underrated chapter by all the “season starts in March” crowd, the pre-con schedule.  It hasn’t disappointed either, with thrilling games between Kansas & Duke, Kentucky & UCLA, North Carolina & Kentucky, North Carolina at Indiana, Villanova & Notre Dame and dozens of other amazing and exciting matchups.  The first chapter is a nice chance to see teams be daring and step out of their comfort zone to take on other top teams, often on neutral floors, in a grand effort to prepare for Chapter Four, the NCAA Tournament.

Before we move on to Chapter Two: Conference Play and Chapters Three and Four; The Conference and NCAA Tournaments, it is good to take stock of the valuable evidence we have gained during this month and half ‘sneak preview.’  Records matter, but there is a LOT more to be gained from WATCHING teams play, observing strengths and weaknesses, gaps between reality and perception, and to look for some undervalued teams that might be able to deliver us some nice winners over the next few months.

SO let’s do two things today; first, I’ll give you MY Sweet Sixteen in a remix of a column I wrote for years entitled “Bracketeering.”  It’s MY Sweet Sixteen based SOLELY on my perception.  It will rankle a few people because it ignores the polls, in fact polls (sic) are for strippers and of little value when handicapping college hoops (unless you use dubious rankings to take down the bad lines).  It is my slant on IF these teams played tomorrow on a neutral NCAA Tourney court, who would I pick to win.  Secondly, let’s take a look at a handful of value teams that might be lurking under the radar from an ATS value perspective.

As always, troll away (politely) on Twitter @TheMarchManiacs

 

BRACKETEERING – SWEET SIXTEEN – DECEMBER 26^th 2016

 

Sweet Sixteen:

Purdue, Louisville, Xavier, Baylor, Creighton, Wisconsin, Oregon, USC, Florida State

Most of these are pretty obvious, but a few deserve some explanation.  Let me start with Baylor.  Again, no disrespect to what they have done so far – they DESERVE to be ranked in the Top Five in the country.  But they are not one of the four BEST teams in the country.  Just wait three weeks before trolling me on Twitter.  They just aren’t.  Sorry.

There are a few sleepers I like more than the polls, none more than Oregon.  This was a Top Five preseason team with early injuries who is now healthy.  They lost two of their first four games, but hasn’t lost since, reeling off seven straight including wins over UConn, Alabama, Fresno State and Boise State – all by comfortable margins.  Don’t be surprised if they clip high-flying UCLA this week in Eugene.

Purdue and Indiana were my debate for 8/9.  Purdue has been steadier, but I think Indiana has a higher ceiling, as evidenced by the North Carolina win.  IU is also are more prone to the stinker, as we saw with Ft. Wayne (obviously) and also the disappointing neutral court loss to Butler (whom I intentionally do NOT have in my rankings.  Butler was a narrow cut, but despite their early success I see them finishing fourth in the BEast and being no better than a six seed).  Purdue is solid; big and balanced with an All-American-like stud in Caleb Swanigan.

Louisville will be the trendy poll mover after the win over UK, but I’m still going to keep them on my third tier.  That was an emotional home game and the resume is otherwise a little thin for my liking.  I think they are clearly behind Duke and UNC, and not sure they are better than Virginia or even Notre Dame in the ACC.

I like Florida State’s NBA-level talent as an ACC sleeper and the last addition to my Sweet Sixteen.  They could be a fun team to catch some home value with when they take on the bigger name ACC schools over the next few weeks.

 

ELITE EIGHT:

Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Indiana

What to do with Kentucky?  They have TWO losses, including a home loss to UCLA and a tight loss to Louisville.  But they remain my #5 team with a real thought of moving them ahead of Kansas and Villanova because of the high ceiling they flashed in the North Carolina game in a Final Four-like atmosphere out in Vegas.  This team could wind up being the best team in the country.  OR their guards could go ice-cold (not a great shooting backcourt overall despite Monk’s Vegas brilliance) and bounce out in the first weekend of the Tourney.

Similar story for #6 North Carolina.  I’m not sure they aren’t the best team in the country after watching them, but head-up losses to UK and Indiana keep them down a peg.  They are seriously LOADED and have such a unique talent in Justin Jackson, a Kevin Durant-like physique and style game who burst onto the national consciousness in the UK game.

#7 Gonzaga is the sleeping giant.  The Zags have a REAL chance to enter March unbeaten with their toughest test remaining being a trip to St. Mary’s (just outside my Sweet Sixteen – still really like that club a lot) and a trip to BYU.  This team is complete, and stop me if this redundant sentence has grown tiresome over the last decade, might give Mark Few his best look at finally making a Final Four.

And then there is #8 Indiana.  If I am going to catch noise in Twitter for any team in my rankings, this is it (or Baylor, but by and large, the collective “you” don’t care much about Baylor).  I have them higher than just about anyone else, and again, it is the “ceiling” argument.  They have three pros in OG, Bryant and Blackmon and some nice role players.  They play at a quick tempo and have the potential to overwhelm just about anyone in the country if they are shooting well.  #8 is an aggressive ranking, but I’ll stick with my faith in the 2017 Hoosiers for one more poll…

 

FINAL FOUR:

#4 UCLA – This could easily be #1, and if they win in Oregon Wednesday, I revise my rankings immediately.  I just have a feeling they catch one on the chin this week.  Their freshman pair of Ball and Leaf are beautiful to watch and have been the biggest revelation in college basketball this season.  Bryce Alford is evolving into a JJ Reddick-like weapon for the Bruins now that he is off the ball instead of over-controlling it, and their bench is amazing led by Holliday, the best sixth man in the country.  Don’t get my wrong, I LOVE this team (and did preseason when I was banging on them at 50:1).  There was NO DOUBT they were in my Final Four, it was just a matter of WHERE to put them.

#3 Villanova – the defending national champs are currently #1 in the country and largely undisputedly so.  You can put them #1 if you’d like, and easily #2.  My criteria was a simple one – IF Duke can get right, who is the better team on a neutral floor?  I go Duke.  Now, with ALL the issues at Duke, it is very reasonable to drop them, maybe as low as fifth or sixth.

The Wildcats have done everything right.  Jalen Brunson hasn’t missed a beat replacing Arch, Josh Hart is this year’s Denzell Valentine – the senior with old-man Paul Pierce-like game who just makes plays and WINS.  He is most people’s National POY right now, though I lean Lonzo Ball as long as UCLA remains a Top Five team.  Villanova is going to be a tough out as they seem to have the smallest variance between “good” and “bad” of any team in the country.  You know what you are getting on any given night from Jay Wright’s squad, and MOST nights, that’ll be enough to win.  I think Kentucky, UNC, Duke, UCLA and Kansas all have higher ceilings when playing well, but can they reach that ceiling when it matters?

#2 Kansas – The best overlooked team in the country resides in the place where the best team or two in the country ALWAYS resides; Lawrence, Kansas.  So how are we missing the Jayhawks?  Is it because the Duke win is largely dismissed as “they were missing their freshman stars then”?  Is it because they lost the season opener to Indiana on a neutral floor?  Since the Duke game, no one has been within single digits of Self’s squad and freshman potential #1 pick Josh Johnson is starting to BALL.  Ffrank Mason is the senior-leader point guard, they have shooting in Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, a lock-down wing in Devonte Graham and size and a dynamic elite talent that has gotten lost in the Duke Trio/Lonzo/Malik Monk hype in Johnson (16.5/6.6/3.1 on 53.4% FG).

Bill Self’s team will easily win the Big Twelve yet again and enter March as a clear #1 seed.

#1 Duke – Stubborn me?  Am I trippin’ (low-hanging fruit pun!)?  This is still the most talented team in the country.  This is still the best coach in the World, and as Pete Gillen might say, “Duke is still Duke.”  Grayson will be back and all will be fine.  Tatum and Bolden will settle in, and veterans like Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones are calming influences when times get rough.  And Luke freakin’ Kennard.  Talk before the season was that the sophomore might not really get minutes this season.  All he has done is average 20.4 pgg and 5.9 boards on 53% shooting including 43% from behind the arc.

This team has the highest ceiling of any team in the country, and I think they will start flirting with it over by February.  The period without Grayson is a nice opportunity for Tatum to emerge as the best player on the team and get comfortable as a star on a team full of them.

If anyone can blend this talent over the next eight weeks it is Coach K, so until there is dominating evidence to drop them (a home loss or a loss to a non UNC/L’ville/UVA, I’ll stick to my guns while everyone else is panicking.

As always, troll away (politely) on Twitter @TheMarchManiacs

 

BEST VALUES in the COUNTRY

Here are some teams who are getting it DONE ATS:

 

UCLA 10-3, Kentucky 9-3, Louisville 8-2, Creighton 8-3, Gonzaga 7-3, Purdue 7-3, Baylor 6-1

Here are some who are NOT:

UConn 2-6, Syracuse 2-6, VCU 3-6, Michigan State 5-7, Xavier 5-6, Colorado 4-8, Oregon 4-8, Cal 4-8  (**BOTH OREGON AND CAL HAD early injuries, and are both teams I really LIKE moving forward)

 

Teams you DON’T watch on TV with some extreme early season value (in both directions..)

The GOOD: South Dakota 9-3, Eastern Illinois 8-3, Temple 8-3, Wyoming 8-3, Northern Kentucky 7-2, Northwestern 7-2-1, Oral Roberts 7-4 (after starting the season 1-10 SU, won three in a row), Arkansas State 6-2, Samford 5-1, Harvard 5-2, Chattanooga 5-2,

The UGLY:  DePaul 3-8, South Dakota St. 3-8, UAB 2-6, Miami (FL) 2-7, Cleveland St. 2-8, North Dakota St. 1-7, James Madison 1-8, Northern Iowa 3-7, Oregon St. 3-8,

 

As always, good luck this week!  We’ll be back this weekend with some New Year’s Picks to hopefully build on the 19-9 ATS mark here at The Saturday Edge!