The ACC picks went 3-1 last week, and with that let’s move ahead to week five. The big showdown between No. 3 Louisville and No. 5 Clemson will catch a lot of national attention this weekend. And it could very likely decide the winner of the ACC Atlantic. Let’s take a look at that matchup.

3 Reasons Why Louisville (-2) Can Cover

• The last two matchups with Clemson have been close, and the Cardinals now have the best team they’ve had in Bobby Petrino’s second stint. Clemson has won by a combined 9 points the last two meetings, but Louisville’s offense could give them the edge this season.
• The Cardinals defense has given Clemson’s offense more trouble than other teams. The Tigers have a combined 630 total yards in the last two matchups against Louisville.
• The Tigers defense has played well through four games, but it is still very young. Louisville will attack a secondary with three new starters, and with the way the Cards have ran the ball, the 50/50 balls down the field will be something to watch.

3 Reasons Why Clemson (+2) Can Cover

• Deshaun Watson is 22-2 as a starting quarterback at Clemson, and the Tigers defeated three top-ten opponents in 2015. The Tigers have more experience in big games like this, and the home crowd will give them another advantage. Dabo Swinney’s group currently has an 18-game winning streak at home, which is a school record.
• Brent Venables is one of the best in the business, and he’s had a few extra days to prepare, with the Tigers playing on Thursday night last week. There’s no stopping Lamar Jackson right now, but the Tigers have enough talent in the front seven to contain him. Clemson is holding opponents to just 92.75 rushing yards per game this year.
• Clemson’s offense is back to form after a slow start. The Tigers totaled 442 yards last week versus Georgia Tech, and Watson comfortably completed 32 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Williams and Artavis Scott are still the go-to guys, but Ray-Ray McCloud has emerged as a reliable target with a team-leading 21 receptions through four games.

 

ACC Pick of the Week- Miami (-7) @ Georgia Tech

The Hurricanes have won six of the last seven in this series, and five of those victories have come by 15 or more points. Also, Miami football has a different feel to it this year under first-year head coach Mark Richt.

We haven’t really seen a defining game for this team yet, but they beat Appalachian State 45-10 in a tougher-than-usual road game. The Yellow Jackets secondary was beat up by Watson a week ago, and Brad Kaaya could do the same. He is off to a great start, completing over 65 percent of his passes. The Yellow Jackets are 1-2 ATS this season, and Miami has covered the spread in all three games.

Georgia Tech’s offense has been spotty, and Miami’s defense is giving up a national best 7.7 points per game. Richt’s defense is also ranked second in yards per game at 217.3. Take the Hurricanes -7.

The Pick: Miami (-7)

 

Confidence Pick: Notre Dame (-10) @ Syracuse 

I picked Notre Dame a week ago and was dead wrong, with the Duke Blue Devils shocking the Irish at home. That won’t happen two weeks in a row. The Irish fired its defensive coordinator this week, and Brian Kelly is now on the hot seat at 1-3. He needs an impressive win this week.

Syracuse’s defense has allowed 466.8 yards per game, and it will face a Notre Dame offense that is rolling right now. The Irish have scored 37.3 points per game, and they will challenge a Syracuse defense that is tied for 92nd nationally against the pass. With a little extra fire this week, the Irish defense will make enough stops to cover the spread.

The Pick: Notre Dame (-10) 

 

Potential Upset Alert: Wake Forest @ N.C. State

The Demon Deacons (+11) may not outright win the game, but they certainly have a chance to cover the spread. Wake Forest is quietly 4-0, with wins over Duke and Indiana. That’s due in part to a Demon Deacons defense that is giving up just 16.5 points per game. The N.C. State offense is off to a good start, but this could be a trap game to watch.

Trending Up: Florida State’s offense 

After a disappointing 20-point effort against Louisville, FSU’s offense appears to be back to normal. The Seminoles rolled South Florida 55-35 a week ago behind 647 total yards. Dalvin Cook led the way with 267 rushing yards and 62 receiving yards. With just one loss, we still shouldn’t count the Seminoles out of anything. Especially if the offense keeps this up.

Trending Down: Pittsburgh’s defense 

Pat Narduzzi was one of the most talented coordinators in the country when he won the Broyles Award in 2013, given to the nation’s top assistant coach. He hasn’t had the same type of success at Pittsburgh so far, though. The Panthers are giving up 32.0 points per game and 422.3 yards per game this season. With James Conner and Nathan Peterman back on offense, this Panthers defense has been a big disappointment through four weeks.

 

Other Picks 

• Duke (-3.5) vs. Virginia– The Blue Devils offense is rolling after 38 points last week, and the Cavaliers defense still has a lot of questions. It has allowed 482.0 yards per game and 32.3 points per game this season, and that will be enough for Duke to cover the spread.