2016 Big Ten Football Pick of the Week – Week # 5

 

 

 

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10) – 3:30 on ABC

Make no mistake, I was about as wrong as one can be about last week’s Wisconsin-Michigan State match-up. The Badgers were very impressive as they dominated the MSU Spartans 30-6. They were the rightful victors and their rushing defense suffocated MSU, limiting them to 2.8 yards per carry.

However, the game’s final score was not indicative of how close it could have been. MSU actually outgained the Badgers, 325-317 and Wisconsin’s offense only gained 122 yards on the ground on three yards per carry. Alex Hornibrook got the start and looked good against a Michigan State defense playing without top linebacker Riley Bullough, completing 16-26 passes for 195 yards with a touchdown.

Wisconsin was very good last Saturday but the score was a bit deceiving and I still question whether or not their run game is capable of controlling games like they did during their recent Rose Bowl seasons. Wisconsin is much better than I thought they would be and this is not a bet against them, this is a bet endorsing one of the best teams in the country: the Michigan Wolverines.

The Michigan Wolverines were incredibly impressive during their dominant 49-10 romping of the Penn State Nittany Lions. The most encouraging individual stat of the game was 326. As in, 326 rushing yards and an average of 6.7 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns. The running game hadn’t been dominant yet but it certainly was against Penn State and I like their ability to churn out yards with a bevy of running backs including De’Veon Smith, Karan Higdon, Ty Isaac and Chris Evans.

The Wolverines have now scored 45 points or more in every game this season and their week three opponent, the Colorado Buffaloes, just went on the road and knocked off the Oregon Ducks. Wisconsin has surrendered only three offensive touchdowns in four games but Wilton Speight has looked good, UM has three receiving targets (Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt) and a running game that appears to have found its stride.

I love the physicality and aggressive mentality it appears Michigan is playing with right now. While I have immense respect for what Wisconsin has managed to do so far, I don’t think they can keep this one within two touchdowns as Michigan wears them down and gets a comfortable victory. Take Michigan at -10.

 

 

ATS Upset Pick

Northwestern (+13) at Iowa – Noon

I nearly took the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as massive 38-point underdogs in Columbus against the Ohio State Buckeyes but I’m not sure Rutgers can find the end zone without Janarion Grant (out for the year) and OSU has an incredibly explosive offense so I eventually shied away from that pick and settled on the Northwestern Wildcats as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

After opening the season with two comfortable victories over Miami (OH) and Iowa State, the Iowa Hawkeyes have fallen apart offensively, losing to North Dakota State while producing only 231 yards and narrowly escaping Rutgers and gaining only 355 yards.

The playcalling has fallen back into the conservative mode Iowa fans grew so frustrated with before last season and C.J. Beathard is struggling to get anything going with any of his receivers. Thus far, only tight end George Kittle and Matt VandeBerg have produced any kind of consistent production.

The rushing tandem of Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. has been fine but the Hawkeyes need much better from Beathard.

Northwestern’s offense is also a head-scratching unit. They’ve been unable to get Justin Jackson on-track, or at least to the level in which we’ve grown accustomed to watching him play at. They’ve also struggled to develop anyone other than Austin Carr into a good passing game threat. Clayton Thorson has had the best two weeks of his young career during the past two contests, a win over Duke and a loss to Nebraska.

The defense isn’t anywhere near what they were a season ago but I think they’ll be able to hold Iowa to something in the low 20s. If that ends up being the case, the Wildcats could cover just by reaching the end-zone once and adding a field goal. Iowa should win this game somewhat comfortably but I like Northwestern to cover. Take the Wildcats at +13.

 

Trending Up/Trending Down

Trending Up – Nebraska’s run game: The Cornhuskers were not particularly prolific on the ground in 2015 and their lack of running game forced them into throwing more than you ideally would with Tommy Armstrong at quarterback. This led to too many turnovers and some frustrating shootouts (and close losses) as Nebraska was unable to put games away on the ground.

They were very successful in their bowl game victory over UCLA and it appears that has carried over into this season. They ran for 292 yards (5.7 ypc) in the opener against Fresno State but then struggled in week two against Wyoming, gaining only 138 yards with a 3.2 yards per carry average. Fans could have been forgiven for thinking “here we go again” but they bounced back with a 228 yard (4.9 ypc) performance against Oregon and a dominant 310 yards rushing (6.6 ypc) at Northwestern last week.

Tommy Armstrong is using his legs effectively and they are getting good performances from the trio of Terrell Newby, Mikale Wilbon (who finally saw the field this past week) and Devine Ozigbo. Ozigbo has the most carries and an average of 4.3 yards per carry while Terrell Newby is averaging a team-high 5.8 yards per carry. The Huskers will look to continue the renewed focus on their rushing game as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini, a team that gave up 197 rushing yards to North Carolina and 287 yards rushing to Western Michigan.

 

Trending Down – Penn State’s run defense: While Nebraska has found success running the ball, Penn State has been on the opposite end of things. The Nittany Lions have been hammered on the ground in nearly each of their games. Kent State’s woeful offense managed 150 yards rushing in the opener before Pittsburgh overwhelmed the wounded Nittany Lions, gaining 341 yards on the ground on 56 carries.

PSU responded well to that disheartening performance and bounced back in week three against Temple, holding the Owls to only 38 yards on 28 carries. However, any positive thoughts of progress were quickly dashed last week as Michigan walloped the PSU defensive line and their battered linebacker corps for 326 yards, an average of 6.7 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns. If Penn State can’t get healthy in their front seven, it’s hard to imagine this will get much better as they now face run-heavy teams Minnesota, Maryland and Ohio State.

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