The craziness continues. Duke was the latest victim of the parity/’no one is great and no one is bad’ bug. Clemson continued their improbable resurgence with yet another win against a ranked opponent, their second such win in a week for the first time since 1989. This is the same Clemson team that lost three games in a row before Christmas, getting pummeled by both UMass and Minnesota. Yet now they sit at 4-1 in conference play and in a decent position to resurrect their once-dormant NCAA Tournament hopes.

 

They aren’t the only ones tipping over the establishment cart. South Carolina’s perfect season ended, not with a bang but a whimper, as they got absolutely smoked by Avery Johnson’s Alabama Crimson Tide in front of Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and a few of his title-winning teammates. Time will tell whether it was simply an off night or a sign of the long-anticipated regression to the norm.

Teams we left for dead are resurfacing everywhere. USC leads the Pac-12 after being predicted tenth by the coaches after consecutive wins over Arizona and UCLA. Clemson and Pitt trial only North Carolina in the 16-team ACC, and Virginia Tech sits right with them at 3-1 despite an RPI in the mid-hundreds. Remember Georgetown? Well, they are 4-1 in the deep and balanced Big East, trailing only Villanova. St. Bonaventure leads the A-10 after beating Rhode Island last night, and Indiana and Iowa are the only remaining unbeaten teams in the Big Ten (though Iowa gets a return trip to East Lansing tonight…).

And for even more fun, #1 Kansas got knocked off this week, #3 Maryland lost at unranked Michigan and #2 Oklahoma had to survive a buzzer-beater miss from Oklahoma State last night. Now leading the Big 12? West Virginia at a perfect 4-0 while Iowa State (admittedly, a team I was possibly overly high on) is 1-3. It’s a crazy mixed-up world in college hoops right now, so maybe the smaller leagues are the place to look for a winning edge. Here are a few of the best mid-major teams in the country.

 

Mid Major Best Bets (ATS record):

 

IPFW Mastodons (12-1) – Besides nothing being much more fun than writing legitimately about “Mastodons,” IPFW is also one heck of a wager in 2016.   They are a staggering 92% ATS and are actually a pretty good team as well at 14-4 overall and 3-0 in the Summit League. They are in with an also-good Omaha squad, so a tourney berth is far from assured, but it seems like a game by game payout is. I’m loving the Mastodons and their +5.6 ATS point differential. Their four losses, all against decent opponents, have all been massive blowouts. But remember, we are talking about wagering, not overall quality of team and they aren’t getting any Indiana’s now that they are in conference play.

 

St. Mary’s Gaels (12-1) – This has been hands-down the best wager in the country. They own a +10.4 ATS point differential, and still appear to be under the radar nationally, despite some historical program success and a 14-2 record and Top 50 RPI. They are definitely a team to keep an eye on.

South Carolina (11-2) – No, the Gamecocks are NOT a mid-major, but they are worth a mention. I brought up my willingness to FADE Cocky, despite the gaudy record, and I stand firm. Last night they got HOUSED by Alabama, and despite all these ATS wins, they only have a +1.8 ATS margin for the season. A lot of CLOSE covers and that was way before Vegas caught up and the general public noticed they were ranked. I’m still bearish on the Gamecocks.

UCF Knights (10-2) – I’ve mentioned my alma matter before, and they just keep on covering. This isn’t a good team. Not at all. But they aren’t dreadful. That makes the fact they catch double-digits most games pretty attractive. They will be underdogs in most of their games this year, so keep an eye on the Knights as a value play.

Long Beach State 49’ers (10-3-2) – The Beach is just 8-9 on the season, but don’t let the losses from their standard insane non-con schedule sway you. Their nine losses include Virgina, Oklahoma, UCLA, Duke, Oklahoma State twice, and Oregon. They also have wins over Colorado State, BYU and Seton Hall. This isn’t a bad team, despite a losing record and they are already 3-0 in the Big West. Expect a bunch of conference wins for the 49’ers the rest of the season as their schedule ceases being the most ambitious in the nation.

Texas Arlington & Arkansas Little Rock – (10-2), (8-3) – These two Sun Belt teams are both perfect in league play, so obviously something has to give when they go head-to-head. But in the meantime, both are flirting with long shot at-large candidacy and have been two of the best bets in the country to boot. Add in Georgia State and this is the best low-major league in the country this season and quite possibly the only that is eyeing multiple bids regardless of their tourney champion. Their +8.3 and +7.2 ATS averages are among the best in the nation as well.

 

Idaho State (9-3) – This one kind of defies logic. They are 6-9 with an RPI of 314, making them literally one of the worst teams in the country. But they cover a helluva lot. I don’t know. Not much to add here, but it you have that “It’s 10:30 EST and I need to put a late night bet down to give me something to do” here is a decent option. Oh, and you MIGHT want to consider talking to someone or seeking some help. Just sayin’…

St. Bonaventure (7-3) – I’m loving the Bonnies in the A-10 right now. They don’t feel like they should be leading the league, but at 12-3 overall and 4-0 in the A-10, they seem to be legit. The schedule isn’t great, but home wins over Davidson and Rhode Island are top-half of the league wins. The schedule gets real this week with road game at Duquesne and VCU sandwiched around conference favorite Dayton. I expect them to catch points, significant in two, in those games, and depending upon the number, might be a nice value play. They were competitive in all three losses; Hofstra, and at Syracuse and at Siena.

VCU (6-0 as favorite) – The early start had some bobbles. Now VCU is in conference play and they will be favored most often. Their 6-0 ATS mark as the favorite says do not be afraid of the HAVOC… they can win and cover as teams wilt under their relentless pressure.

 

Indiana State (12-3-1) – The Valley belongs to Wichita State, and public perception won’t let go of Northern Iowa, despite a losing conference record and a 10-8 mark overall. But it’s the Sycamores who are cashing the checks. They are also a nice 6-1-1 as an underdog, which they should be in around half of their remaining games. I still expect Wichita to win the league and Evansville to be a nice at-large bid sleeper team, but keep an eye on the Sycamores.

It’s a wacky, topsy-turvy season with major conference games seemingly nightly toss-ups. There is some credence to the home court edge, as most of the upsets have been sprung on home courts, but there have been road upsets as well; Baylor hammering Iowa State, Temple waxing Cincinnati and UConn, etc. I’m liking the value of focusing on some of the smaller leagues for a while. Hopefully this primer helped give you some teams to look deeper into –and as always – have a great week and best of luck!

Enjoy some hoops. And cash some winners!