It’s a pretty loaded day of college hoops today, with the typical Saturday slate starting bright and early at noon Eastern, and heading well past midnight. I like to make sure you have some entertainment throughout the day (though many of you will probably be watching NFL Playoffs in the evening anyhow), so let’s work in chronological order for today college basketball picks.

 

TODAY’S FAVORITE PICKS:

Maryland Terrapins -3.5 at Wisconsin Badgers

Am I missing something here? I get that the Kohl Center is a historically difficult place to play, but Latin is also a historically significant language. No one’s speaking round these parts.

Wisconsin is 9-7 on the season and in their last ten games they have lost five of them, including home losses to Wisconsin Milwaukee and Marquette. They opened the season with a loss to Western Illinois, also at home. Suffice it to say that the Badgers are better than their 9-7 record, but they are no longer unbeatable at the Kohl Center. In fact, their last three home games included a loss to Purdue (acceptable) and a narrow escape against Green Bay. The point is, this Wisconsin team is probably going to the NIT. Maryland is as good a Final Four bet as there is in the country.

The Terrapins are somewhat underrated considering they are ranked third in the country. I am not saying they should be ahead of Kansas or Oklahoma, simply noting that it seems like there isn’t as much buzz around this team as there should be nationally. Melo Trimble is fantastic. The sophomore point guard is on par with the best in the country. This season he is averaging 14.4 anf 5.7 assists. I’d like to see a little better than his current 2.4 Asst/TO ration (i.e. better value of the basketball), but he can get a bucket OR create a bucket basically on command. Their freshman center Diamond Stone has emerged as one of the best post threats in the conference and Rasheed Sulaimon is now shooting 50% from behind the arc this season.

And we haven’t even mentioned do-everything stretch-four Jake Layman. Layman is the X-factor that makes this team unique. He is efficient from the floor (48%), he can drive and get fouled (84% FT) and he can step back and hit threes (38%). He rebounds (5.5) and blocks a shot and record a steal a game. Wisky can’t match him tonight and I expect him to have a big impact.

Wisconsin is 4-7 ATS at home this season, while Maryland is 3-1 ATS on the road with their failed cover coming in a competitive to the last minute 89-81 loss at UNC. Maryland is the vastly superior team. Yes, it is tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but it becomes more manageable when five of the best six players in the gym are on your team. Maryland shoots 51% as a team, Wisconsin shoots 42%. I’ll allow for a two or three point wiggle given that Maryland’s schedule pre-conference was a little bit softer – but not by a ton. The data and the eyes both tell the same story. Maryland is way better. Eat the 3.5.

Today’s Pick: Maryland Terrapins -3.5

 

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia -13.5

I wrote yesterday that I liked West Virginia, but am not completely sold yet. The reason why? Their best wins are San Diego State and Richmond, as well as a blowout win over Virginia Tech (which would be all but irrelevant had VA Tech not stunned UVA last week) and a pair of conference opening road wins at Kansas State and TCU. Their only top 25 game was a 18 point loss to Virgina. Yes, this team is pretty good, I think, and could be a solid #4 in the Big Twelve, but a 13.5 point favorite against a competent basketball team feels aggressive.

Oklahoma State enters at 9-5, and no one in their right mind is banking on a Tourney berth with this daunting conference gautlet awaiting. But of their five losses, three were single possession-type games; a two point loss at Florida, a three point loss to George Mason in a Thanksgiving Tourney and a two point loss to Missouri State. Now, those aren’t great losses, granted, but it isn’t like they are getting punked – and those are at least Top 100 type teams, especially Florida. The conference opening 17-point loss at Baylor wasn’t great, and is probably the basis for this line.

However, I would put Baylor a notch above West Virginia at this point. They have been a little disappointing, but at least they have went out and PLAYED people; Vandy, Oregon, @ Kansas, etc.

I think West Virginia wins at home, and may even win without tremendous game pressure. But I like the Cowboys to hang around close enough to cover. 13.5 is a TON of points. West Virginia is only 3-4 ATS at home this season despite ten home games (three opponents were so bad there wasn’t even a line). This was supposed to be a bit of a retooling year for West Virginia and they have exceeded expectations, but I still think it is fair to wait and see if they are actually as good as last year’s team (I think no). In the meantime, I’ll take the pile of points and the ‘Pokes.

Free Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +13.5

 

North Carolina Tarheels -6.5 at Syracuse Orange

Jim Boeheim returns to the bench tonight after serving his well-documented nine-game suspension. I feel like this factored; both Coach and emotion, heavily into the line. Syracuse made my list of teams to be wary of yesterday, and I am heeding my own advice. This team is 0-3 in the ACC and now they are only getting six and a half against the most explosive, scary, freaky athletic team in the country??

Carolina is fresh off a performance where they scored 106 points at Florida State (a better team than Syracuse) and Brice Johnson became the first ever Carolina player to go for 39 points and 20 rebounds EVER. The best part of that for Carolina? As gaudy as his numbers are, he STILL isn’t their best player. That honor is reserved for Marcus Paige. While all the point guard national love goes to Kris Dunn, Paige remains the best floor general in the nation. He spearheads an offense that averages 87.7 points a contest and a whopping +16 point differential (and that is including a few games he missed where they played really poorly).

In their last ten games, they have the two-point road loss at the buzzer to Texas, and no one else has come closer than eight points (Maryland by 8 and a road game at undervalued – see yesterday’s column – GA Tech by 8). Everyone else has gotten pummeled, including a good Florida State in their home gym and UCLA in Westwood.

Meanwhile, the recent run for the Cuse is bloody. They are 4-6 in their last ten games and have lost three in a row. They are 3-7 ATS over their last ten. Their wins are over Colgate, Cornell, Texas Southern and Montana State. Their losses are by an average of nine points and include Clemson, Wisconsin and Georgetown.

I get the emotional lift of having your Hall of Fame coach returning to thunderous support from the home fans. But unless Jim Boeheim can put a body on Brice Johnson or run with Marcus Paige in transition, it is going to be a tough night for the Cuse. Emotion is great. Overwhelming talent and athleticism is another thing altogether.

I’ll take the Tarheels to romp and roll in grand fashion, and happily lay the half dozen points.

Today’s Pick: North Carolina -6.5

Other games to watch:

Arizona -2.5 at USC – Every Pac-12 game is a good one. This is an interesting case for USC to prove they are legit and for Arizona to bounce back after a tough loss at UCLA and regain their footing. I lean Arizona in a bounce-back effort.

Kansas -7.5 at Texas Tech – Tech is 11-2 and has been one of the best ATS bets in college basketball this season (including handing Little Rock their only loss of the season). But this is the #1 team in the country visiting Lubbock… can they even compete? It will tell a lot about their chances of hanging around .500 in the conference and trying to sneak into March for the first time in a long time. I lean Kansas, though would LIKE to see a good interesting game.

Pitt at Notre Dame -4.5 – I liked Notre Dame before the season. I like Pitt more now. This line feels right, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pitt out-tough the Irish and steal a road win.

Wichita State -8 at Southern Illinois – Southern Illinois is 14-2 and leading the Valley. Wichita State is 9-5 after a tumultuous pre-conference (and difficult schedule and injuries to Van Vleet and others, etc.) Today is a chance to reassert their rightful place on the throne. OR a BIG CHANCE in Carbondale for the reemergence of the Salukis. I know no one is watching this game, but it is going to be a REALLY good game if you can catch it (I believe it is on CBS Sports Network).

Vanderbilt at South Carolina -4 — So, apparently Vegas isn’t going overboard on the Gamecocks despite their perfect record. Nor are they as down on Vandy as I have been. I liked (past tense) Vandy as a Final Four sleeper back in early November. Now, at 8-6, I think it is fair to say if they have NCAA Tourney hopes, they better start with a win today. I’m not sure they can dig out of a much deeper hole, despite the Field now being 68 teams. I don’t have a pick either way – as nothing would stun me. I wouldn’t bet this game. But it is going to be one of the better watches of the day and a pretty high-stakes game considering it is only the first full week of January.

Good luck today – hopefully you stack some winners. My three favorite plays are Maryland -3.5, Oklahoma State +13.5, and North Carolina laying 6.5.

I have leans on Arizona -2.5, Kansas -7.5, Pitt +4.5, and So. Illinois +8.

If you are looking for a round-robin upset parlay, my favorite ‘upset watch’ teams are: Pitt, Southern Illinois, Oregon State, Auburn, and LSU.

 

Have an awesome day of hoops!