We are one week into conference play and just two months from Selection Sunday. And it is perfectly fair to ask the question, “who’s good?” It’s even fair to ask it in a maddening inflection, like “Who’s good?!?” as in “who the hell is any good because it is really difficult to tell at this point.”

Here’s a few examples of the transitive property wreaking havoc on the college basketball universe.

Kentucky beat Duke and Louisville. But they lost to Ohio State. Who is 3-0 but has a loss to Texas Arlington. So is Kentucky good? After a blowout loss to LSU who has lost to Charleston who has lost to William and Mary and Coastal Carolina. So…

Or how about Virginia? They look like a Final Four type team when you watched them the last month. Until their last outing when they lost to Virginia Tech who has a blowout loss to St. Joe’s and a loss to Alabama State. Yup. So is UVA that good?

Or Iowa State? They looked legit in wins at Cincinnati and that awesome game at Oklahoma (despite losing) I think they are a Top 8 team. But they lost to Northern Iowa. Who also beat North Carolina. But whoa my friend, because Northern Iowa is 9-7 and 1-2 in the Valley after losses to Missouri State and Southern Illinois this week. So… is UNC fatally flawed along with the Cyclones?

North Carolina lost to Texas. Villanova got rolled by Oklahoma and Virginia. Duke lost to Utah, who is winless in Pac-12 play – ditto for UCLA (until last night’s Alford game-winner), by the way.

The point is, it is an INSANE season in college basketball. And it is a worthwhile question to ask, “Who is good?” So why don’t we start there, with a look at several categories of college basketball teams, in the humble opinion of yours truly, The March Maniac, and see if we can make some sense of this season.

If all else fails, a Coastal Carolina/Alabama State/Missouri State/Monmouth Final Four seems reasonable…

 

The “Denny Greens”

These are the teams that are who we thought they were – legitimately good. Kansas, Oklahoma, Maryland are elite and have proven it. No questions on any of those teams. I’d also put North Carolina comfortably in the “definitely good” pile. Forget a few early bobbles. This team is solid with a title-winning ceiling.

From there it gets a little more difficult. The only other teams I am willing to put in the “no doubt, absolutely good” pile are Michigan State and Virginia. The VA Tech loss was odd, but at least a rivalry game on the road. Michigan State has weathered the storm without the National POY candidate in Valentine, who is almost back. I don’t think Michigan State’s ceiling is as high as the first three teams in this category, but there is no doubt they are legit.

Kansas has been the best bet in the bunch at 9-3 ATS, Oklahoma is 7-4, and Michigan State is 9-6 with three failed covers coming without Valentine.

Pretty Sure They Are Good… But Don’t Bet Your Life

This category is really big, because there are real question marks on each resume. I’ll list them in my personal order of HOW good each team can be in March.

Iowa State, Villanova, Duke, Xavier, Purdue, Iowa, Louisville, Arizona , Providence, Miami

I’m becoming more and more convinced Louisville is actually a legit Final Four Contender. Pitino patched together transfers and JuCo’s – and has magically blended them together. They seem to really like each other and are starting to click. I am not sure they can finish Top Three in the ACC, but they are a really good contender for spot four, and a top four NCAA seed. Miami is their chief competition for fourth, a completely different team – veteran in makeup, but very dangerous. They took the loss to Northeastern and everyone forgot they were there. This team is 13-1 and absolutely dumptrucked Utah and Butler.

Iowa State is so, so talented and plays a frantic pace. They have some questionable items on the resume (Northern Iowa), but the narrow loss at Oklahoma and the road win at Cincinnati have me sold. This team has an All American in Niang and a veteran, fantastic point guard in Morris. I still really like this team.

Ditto for Villanova. Yeah, the early losses were ugly, but Virginia and Oklahoma both fell in my first, small, category for a reason. The bounce-back against Xavier to open the conference was a salvo of what is to come. This is still a Top Ten team, especially as Jalen Brunson develops and adds another dynamic to this offense.

The other two BEast teams, Xavier and Providence, I feel pretty good about. Each has a tough loss (Xavier’s by margin, Providence’s by opponent (at home to Marquette), but has ‘deep into March’ rosters. They will each take losses still by sheer virtue of depth in the BEast, but will be Top Four seeds in March.

Ditto for Purdue and Iowa. Purdue began the year as the sleeper I couldn’t shut up about. The nation soon woke up and the future odds shriveled quickly. If you had them at +10000 (they are now sixth-leanest at 10/1) you will enjoy March and the hedging opportunities that come your way. Now Iowa is my favorite. Jared Utoff is the First Team All American candidate no one has realized yet and the Hawkeyes are a legit threat to win the Big Ten. They are a clear peg below Maryland, but I am not sure Michigan State is that much better. They already have blowout wins over Michigan State and a comfortable road win at Purdue.

 

Forgotten, but Time to Remember:

LSU, Indiana, Cal, Michigan, VCU, Ohio State

It was easy to write off these teams as over-hyped and over-rated. But the first three especially still have big time NBA talent and are starting to play well. There is some good value in these teams. Ditto for the next three on a small extent. VCU will be a player in the competitive A-10, Ohio State is 3-0 in conference, and Michigan won six straight before last night’s set back in Purdue. Keep an eye on Caris Levert, if he is badly hurt again, my Michigan outlook changes.

 

Caution, My Friend:

South Carolina, UConn, Syracuse, Butler, Northwestern, Vanderbilt

This is a mixture of good starts against weak opponents, out-playing their talent level, or simply not being as good as people thought they were. South Carolina scares the hell out of me, even though they just keep on winning. They are another winning week from vaulting into the Top Ten in the polls which will start widening their lines. I’m looking to fade.

Syracuse is 0-4 in conference and had UNC this weekend. This is not a tournament team. Don’t let the name fool you. UConn is all over the place, good one day and lousy the next. In truth, despite flitting in and out of the rankings, they are a bubble team at best.

Vanderbilt, I loved preseason. I was wrong. They are 8-6 and can’t beat anyone of quality. I’m ready to move on. They will still get plenty of wins in the mediocre balance of the SEC, but are a bubble team at best.

Butler is a different case. They ARE good. Just not “top ten” good like they looked early. The Providence and Xavier games were clear evidence. It is still a nice ball club. They just played a little over their skis in that Purdue game (as Butler teams always seem capable of… as a matter of fact, take them off this list and just hide from them all together…)

And then there was Northwestern. We all want them to be good and to finally make the NCAA Tournament. But this isn’t the year. Their early schedule was dreadful, inflating their record. They are a low-middle Big Ten team this year. Sorry.

 

Not Much Press, But Solid:

Texas A&M, Pitt, SMU, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Baylor, Gonzaga

SMU may run the table and miss the tourney due to probation which would make them a fun bar trivia question in ten years “Name the last team to finish undefeated?” Answer: “1976 Indiana” Reply: “Nope. 2016 SMU”.

Pitt looks fierce and tourney ready, same for West Virginia. They both play in a conference with three BIG TIME teams and a few others viewed as ahead of them, so they can sneak up and be a real nice value wager at home. Same for Texas A&M. And people have forgotten Gonzaga as they failed some early season tests, but this is still a talented team if they can get some improved back court play.

Seton Hall and Baylor I am a little less sold on, simply because of the competition that is coming their way, but both look like NCAA Tournament teams to me, somewhere in that 7-10 seed range.

 

Small League, Big Game:

Dayton, St. Mary’s, Texas Arlington, Houston, Hawaii, Illinois in all directions (Northern, Southern), Arkansas Little-Rock

Dayton is big-time and probably belongs in a different category. The rest are potential sleepers for March, and teams you might be able to make some money on in small conference games that don’t have as much line movement or interest from the general betting public. Tx-Arlington and Little Rock will knock each other out in the conference tourney, but it isn’t impossible one could steal an at-large bid if they can run the conference table. Houston still needs to beat a few bigger conference foes to sell me; UConn, SMU, Cincinnati, but the murdering of Temple 77-50 was a good start. They also have a nice win over LSU in their hip pocket.

 

Pesky. Might Not Win, But Good to Cover:

Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Marquette

Love these teams as sneaky cover bets.

Georgia Tech is 8-5 ATS, Texas Tech is 8-2, Wake is 5-7 but 5-1 in true road games, and Marquette has been a losing wager but is an improving young and talented team.

 

The Entire Damn Pac-12:

Seriously. What to make of this league? Two of the presumed top three teams in the league, Utah and UCLA haven’t won a game. 11 of 12 teams have RPI’s in the Top 100 (obviously, they will cannibalize each other eventually, but still…) and it really seems like anyone can beat anyone on any given night. Arizona may well emerge as the clear favorite, but for now, it feels like anyone could be anywhere from 2 to 12 in this insane league. Last night’s Arizona vs. UCLA game was interesting to see if this conference is wide-open or if Arizona is a clear peg above. The Wildcats won by 12 against Arizona State in a rivalry game, but that was a one possession game until Bobby Hurley went apoplectic in the final minute.

So last night was a chance to grab the reigns by the reigning champs… And of course, Bryce Alford hit a cold-blooded step-back three with one second to go to win the game for the Bruins.

So, yeah. The Pac-12 baby.

Favorite long-term future value odds plays:

Here are my five favorite value plays as of January 8^th. These aren’t my five favorite teams, simply my five best value wagers based on hedging potential (or ability to cash a winning ticket)

Maryland 14/1 – This is lower than Purdue and Kentucky. Huh? Tremendous at all five starting positions, good shooting, toughness, elite point guard, challenging schedule. Nothing not to like about the Terps.

Iowa State 25/1 – I just can’t quit the Cyclones. Love this year’s team. Great value at 25/1, especially if the can return the favor when OU visits in two weeks and get back into the Top Ten and top two or three seed line mix. 25/1 for a #2 seed is an awesome value.

South Carolina 120/1 – I know. Speaking out both sides of my mouth. I JUST told you I wasn’t sold on SC. And I am not. But I do know they are ranked #17 and unbeaten with a real chance to do some damage in a weakened SEC. If they are a top four seed, which they would be today, 120/1 is INSANE. Lock it up as a flyer.

West Virginia 120/1 – Same deal. Not sold this team is really as good as their ranking, especially since they have yet to see the Big Three of KU, OU and ISU. But they are a top four seed today, and Bobby Huggins has a habit of extending tournament runs further than they have a right to live.

Iowa 100/1 – I just love this Iowa team. Maybe I’ll get humbled shortly. But the way they have played this year, and already owning wins over Michigan State, Purdue and a one-point loss to Iowa State (plus wins over Wichita State, Marquette and Florida State) has this team trending to top four seed status.