National Championship Stat Preview: Alabama vs. Clemson

Monday Night, the Alabama Crimson Tide will try to cap off what’s been an amazing postseason for the SEC with a National Championship victory over the Clemson Tigers.

It was understood entering the bowls that Alabama had played a very tough schedule. 11 of their 13 opponents from September through December would go on to play in bowls. NOW that bowl results are in the books, Alabama’s 12-1 record seems almost unbelievable. Check this out…

 

Results for ALABAMA’S Bowl-Bound Opponents

LSU beat Texas Tech 56-27, winning YPP 10.3 to 4.9

Ole Miss beat Oklahoma State 48-20, winning yards-per-play 7.7 to 4.9

Mississippi State beat NC State 51-28, winning YPP 7.4 to 5.4

Arkansas beat Kansas State 45-23, winning YPP 8.4 to 5.1

Tennessee beat Northwestern 45-6, winning YPP 5.1 to 3.7

Auburn beat Memphis 31-10, winning YPP 5.5 to 3.0

Georgia beat Penn State 24-17, losing YPP 5.4 to 5.1

Wisconsin beat USC 23-21, winning YPP 5.3 to 4.7

Texas A&M lost to Louisville 27-21, losing YPP 7.4 to 5.1

Middle Tennessee lost to W. Michigan 45-31, losing YPP 9.0 to 6.8

Florida lost to Michigan 41-7, losing YPP 6.5 to 5.3

That’s ELEVEN games vs. teams who played in bowls. Alabama went 10-1 in those games…and those 11 teams went 8-3 bowls! Alabama was dominant against a brutal schedule featuring many opponents who were themselves dominant in bowl games. A cut above those who were a cut above.

Alabama won the SEC West. Thus far, the SEC West is 6-1 in bowl games (counting Alabama’s win over Michigan State), with a combined scoreboard victory of 290-130 (!!!). The division as a composite has beaten market expectations by 119 points even though they were respected as favorites in six of the seven games! It’s no secret that the SEC West was very good…but apparently it was a big secret how MUCH better they were than everyone else. The market has undershot the scoreboard so far by an average of 17 points per SEC West game.

Let’s walk the same path for Clemson’s bowl caliber opponents…

 

Results for CLEMSON’S Bowl-Bound Opponents

Louisville beat Texas A&M 27-21, winning yards-per-play 7.4 to 5.1

Miami lost to Washington State 20-14, winning YPP 5.5 to 5.0

North Carolina lost to Baylor 49-38, losing YPP 7.4 to 6.8

Florida State lost to Houston 38-24, winning YPP 5.8 to 4.5

Notre Dame lost to Ohio State 44-28, tying YPP at 5.8

NC State lost to Mississippi State 51-28, losing YPP 7.4 to 5.4

Clemson did go 6-0 this year vs. teams who played in bowls…but those six teams went 1-5 straight up and against market expectations in the postseason. And, the only win was by less than a TD over a team forced to start its third string quarterback!

Note that Clemson didn’t face bowl-bound ACC teams Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Duke in the regular season. Those teams went 1-1-1 in regulation and 1-2 against the spread. The ACC is not the SEC West!

What those downlines may be telling us…Clemson is clearly one of the best teams of 2015…but this Alabama squad may be one of the best teams in college football history. Team after team after team that Alabama defeated in the regular season then when on to obliterate their bowl opponent.

 

 

Scores and stats from the semifinals are consistent with this storyline. Both teams won and covered in impressive fashion. Yet…

• Alabama won by 38 points, winning YPP 6.7 to 3.7

• Clemson won by 20 points, winning YPP 5.9 to 5.0

Sure, Oklahoma was a superior caliber opponent than Michigan State. But probably not by enough to derail this narrative juggernaut.

This all looms very large over any stat comparison because Alabama was accumulating its stats in a significantly tougher environment. Let’s keep that in mind as we run through the following…

Average Points-per-Game

Alabama: 34.4 on offense, 13.4 allowed

Clemson: 38.4 on offense, 20.0 allowed

That’s +21.0 for Alabama, +18.4 for Clemson. The market is making about a four point adjustment for strength of schedule. Are bowl results suggesting a bigger adjustment should be made?

Average Yards-per-Play

Alabama: 5.8 on offense, 4.1 allowed

Clemson: 6.4 on offense, 4.7 allowed

That’s +1.7 for both, though Alabama has the better defense and is more likely to grind clock with a lead. What would Alabama’s YPP stats have been if they had faced Clemson’s schedule instead of their own?

Rush Percentages

Alabama: 59% of the time

Clemson: 54% of the time

Alabama did open things back up vs. Michigan State after being super run-heavy late in the season. It took them awhile to make that work (only 10-0 at the half, and only 33% on third downs for the game even in a blowout). Clemson probably won’t even make it to 50% passing in Monday’s championship because of the stat you’re about to see.

Rushing Yards-Allowed-per-Play

Alabama: 2.3 yards-allowed-per-carry

Clemson: 3.6 yards-allowed-per-carry

I guess I should do another quick bowl list. Alabama was historically FANTASTIC against the run, while facing a schedule featuring several quality teams who could run…

LSU outrushed Texas Tech 384-29

Arkansas outrushed Kanas State 254-79

Auburn outrushed Memphis 254-102

Tennessee outrushed Northwestern 226-132

Ole Miss outrushed Oklahoma State 207-63

Wisconsin outrushed USC 177-65

Georgia outrushed Penn State 166-120

Oh…and Alabama outrushed Michigan State 154-29. Michigan State is a smash mouth team that couldn’t even land any blows.

The case for Clemson (+7): Is there any hope?! Today’s discussion has provided deeper context than the mainstream media has for why 2015 Alabama should be celebrated in historic terms. But, Clemson is certainly a high quality team. Maybe Alabama comes in flat because they were so focused on not losing in the semi-finals that they take their foot off the gas. You probably heard all the media coverage about Alabama’s super-intense focus for MSU. Can they do that twice in a row? Maybe Clemson strikes for a couple of big plays, and Alabama tries to out-Clemson Clemson in a way that leads to turnovers. Maybe we have a super-conservative defensive struggle that allows Clemson some back-door cover potential in the fourth quarter. Clemson can win and cover if they can make Alabama lose its composure. Distract and confuse the giant before scampering through his legs.

The case for Alabama (-7): The juggernaut keeps juggernauting. The SEC West was a beast this year and Alabama was King of the Beasts in a way that no team from another conference can derail. Bowl results were making that crystal clear day by day. It’s still men vs. boys and Clemson is just best of the boys. It’s not hard to win by more than a touchdown if the underdog’s offense struggles vs. a super-elite defense it’s never seen before.

Enjoy the game! You’ll either be watching one of history’s greatest teams claim another trophy for one of history’s most storied programs. Or, you’ll see an “us against the world” underdog figure out how to topple the giant. Dynasty, or Dabo and Goliath.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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