National Semifinal #2: Alabama vs. Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl

At publication time, Alabama is a 10-point favorite over Michigan State in Thursday night’s Cotton Bowl. The betting markets see the Crimson Tide as significantly superior. On paper, it’s very tough to make a case that Michigan State is even in the same class.

Average Points-per-Game

Alabama 34.1 on offense, 14.4 allowed

Michigan State 32.1 on offense, 20.5 allowed

That’s almost +20 points for Alabama per game…and they played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Michigan State’s down at +11.6 in a weaker conference. Even if it’s pretty clear that the SEC West isn’t quite as tough as it used to be…and you want to try to make the case that the Big 10 is underrated…there’s still no way to even out the schedules. Alabama had the much tougher challenge. That’s how a margin differential of 8.1 rises to a betting pointspread of 10. The market says ‘Bama’s schedule was “about two points tougher.”

 

Same class difference on a per-play basis…

Average Yards-per-Play

Alabama 5.8 on offense, 4.1 allowed

Michigan State 5.6 on offense, 5.4 allowed

That’s +1.7 for the team that played the killer schedule, but barely above break even for the representative of the weaker conference. Importantly, Alabama has the much superior defense. If you believe that “defensive wins championships,” the respect you have for MSU is trumped by the awe that’s required for what Alabama’s defense accomplished this season.

 

We’ve been talking some about rush percentages this season. Both of these teams are relatively run heavy on offense, and stout against the run on defense.

Rush Percentages

Alabama 59% of the time

Michigan State 57% of the time

No wide-open passing attacks for these guys!

Rushing Yards-Allowed-per-Play

Alabama: 2.4 yards-allowed-per-carry

Michigan State: 3.6 yards-allowed-per-carry

Michigan State is a more than respectable #22 in the nation. But, Alabama’s off the charts…#1 overall and much better than the other major bowl teams. Better to think of it as MSU being stout, while Alabama is a brick wall.

 

At first glance, you might be thinking that this means Alabama has a huge advantage in terms of smash-mouth football. But, interestingly, numbers that low for the defenses can cancel out in terms of scoreboard impact. Imagine an extreme framework where one team always gains 30 yards before punting, while the other only gains 15 yards before punting. About 10 possessions in you have a yardage rout but a scoreboard tie! What seems like a big difference in stats could conceivably mean less of a difference on the scoreboard.

(This may seem like a reach to some of you. But, we’ve seen a phenomenon like this happen twice already in this year’s bowls. Georgia State won yards-per-play over San Jose State 4.7 to 3.9, but managed only 10% on third downs in a loss…and Utah State won yards-per-play over Akron  4.9 to 3.9, but lost because of three turnovers. This isn’t to suggest that Alabama should be compared to Georgia State or Akron…but to point out that teams gaining as little 3.9 yards-per-play can win scoreboard if the opponent isn’t turning a better YPP into meaningful points. Michigan State won’t necessarily be outclassed Thursday if BOTH defenses are forcing a lot of punts.)

Part of the challenge of handicapping this game is determining whether or not that type of scenario comes into play. Extreme ends of the spectrum can create headaches for stat handicappers.

 

 

Here’s something that might create headaches for Alabama. There’s been a very clear “change of focus” from September to November in terms of offensive gameplans. You can almost hear Nick Saban yelling at Lane Kiffin in the numbers. Heck, you can hear the curse words.

Alabama Rush Percentages (first four games)

56% vs. Wisconsin

48% vs. Middle Tennessee

42% vs. Ole Miss (59 passes, and 5 turnovers in a loss!)

52% vs. Louisiana Monroe (an awful 2 or 13 on third downs in a 34-0 win)

Or, “Bleep-Bleep it Kiffin…this bleepity-bleep offense of yours is going to ruin our season! We have national championship talent but we just committed 5 turnovers vs. Ole Miss and only went 2 of 13 on third downs vs. a Monroe team we should have just bulldozed! We’re going to keep it simple from now on so you don’t bleep up my championship!”

Alabama Rush Percentages (next five games)

75% vs. Georgia (47 runs and only 16 passes)

58% vs. Arkansas

64% vs. Texas A&M

61% vs. Tennessee

70% vs. LSU (55 runs and only 24 passes)

After peaking at 56% in the first month of action, the low point for the next five games was 58% vs. Arkansas. Alabama cracked 70% twice…and was over 60% rushing 80% of the time. It was working. Saban was back in the national championship race because other powers were losing. After a virtual scrimmage with Charleston Southern, he put the hammer back down in the Crimson Tide’s last two games…

Alabama Rush Percentages (last two games)

66% vs. Auburn (50 runs and only 26 passes)

69% vs. Florida (58 runs and only 26 passes)

If you watched either (or both), you’ll remember long stretches where ALL Alabama did was run the ball. Play after play after play…pounding the line with Derrick Henry. Definitely throwback football. And, even more definitely, Saban “yelling” at Kiffin about how big games are supposed to be won.

Could this dynamic be the monkey wrench that derails Alabama in the Final Four? Or at least makes it harder for them to cover a 10-point spread in a victory? Michigan State is strong against the run. What happens in the second half if Saban’s approach isn’t working…and there’s a crisis in confidence in the huddle and on the sideline? Doesn’t throwback football play right into the hands of smash mouth bruisers from the Big 10?

The case for Alabama (-10): Regardless of what’s going on behind the scenes with the Crimson Tide offense, Michigan State just isn’t going to score much. Alabama’s defense is fantastic. The MSU offense that struggled to get much done vs. both Ohio State and Iowa in low scoring nailbiters will be in much bigger trouble against Alabama’s speed and athleticism. Ten points may seem high in a big game…but it’s a manageable hurdle for a favorite if the losing team will have trouble making it past 13-14 on the scoreboard. The betting markets (and Alabama fans) are right that the Crimson Tide is the best team in the country. They’ll prove it here.

The case for Michigan State (+10): Alabama is now locked in on a playing style that lines up perfectly with the underdog’s preferred approach. Both teams will be running clock with ultra-conservative offensive gameplans. In fact, Alabama isn’t trying to “run away and hide.” Saban just wants to get the game over with while he’s ahead so he can win a championship a week from Monday. Points will be at a premium. A break here or there…or some sideline turmoil from the favorite…and MSU could even spring the upset.

Things could get really interesting here! Or, it’s going to be a boring Alabama squash with handoff after handoff through the second half. Let’s see how it plays out. Back with you next week to review the Final Four boxscores and outline stat expectations for the National Championship showdown matching this Thursday’s winners.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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