The preconference slate is all but over with yesterday’s tense Holy War in Lexington between Kentucky and visiting Louisville a nice bow on the preconference package. We’ve had some great matchups; Iowa State vs. Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Villanova, Arizona vs. Gonzaga, Purdue vs. Butler, Kentucky vs. Duke, Kansas vs. Michigan State, and the list goes on and on. Unlike other sports, college basketball gives the fans a chance to see the best teams in the nation square off in a variety of venues.   In addition to being a lot of fun, it also provides an interesting glimpse of where teams are in their development and where some of the potential sleepers as well as some slightly overvalued teams may be lurking.

So, to get you ready for conference play, here is a quick look at the top six conferences in America (sorry A10 – I sincerely love your conference, but no preview today, I have ya 7th); teams to keep an eye on and a few to be wary. Hopefully this helps get you ready for a monster conference basketball run! (And just for fun, the rundowns are in the order I’d personally rank the conferences from top to bottom. Feel free to agree, disagree with me or offer a counter-view @TheMarchManiacs on Twitter)

 

Conference Outlooks:

Big 12 – This league is the strongest at the tippy-top, with three legit Final Four contenders in Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. Kansas was my preseason National Champ and I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me of that view. Oklahoma and Iowa State are legit as well, and despite the loss to Northern Iowa, ISU might be one of the five best teams in the country. They are balanced, veteran-laden with a big time All American in Niang and excellent point guard in Morris. Plus, they are absolutely explosive offensively.

The reason I have the Big 12 ranked first is the strength in the middle. West Virginia, Texas, Baylor, and Texas Tech all have Top 50 RPIs and Kansas State, who has been very impressive, checks in at 55. That leaves just TCU and Oklahoma State and Okie State isn’t awful. That’s a pretty deep conference, which can hurt in the polls and seeding with the inevitable attrition, but will make for some fun viewing.

My sleeper is Texas Tech. They are 9^th in the RPI, and while they don’t have a single dazzling win, they do have double-digit wins over a good Arkansas Little-Rock team as well as double-digit wins over High Point, Minnesota, Hawaii and South Dakota State as well as a win over Minnesota. They are not going to have a winning record in the Big Twelve. Repeat THEY WILL HAVE A LOSING RECORD. But they will be more competitive than the lines will likely allow. Might be a nice +10 to +14 hidden wager a few times.

My other sleeper is West Virginia. The 70-54 loss at Virginia is a concern. But losing at a Final Four caliber team is not the worst thing in the world. The rest of their schedule is a little soft, but they have absolutely mauled everyone they’ve played and Bobby Huggins knows how to nurture a team long during the season. Don’t sleep on the Mountaineers.

I’d be a little wary of Baylor and Texas. Both have better reputations than teams this season. Texas will get a perception spike from the win over North Carolina but I don’t think this team is ready to be a top half of the conference team this year.

I love Kansas to win the league for an insane 13^th time in a row, but also like Iowa State to have a good shot to equal them. The opener at Oklahoma on Jan 2^nd is enormous.

Here’s some ATS numbers for the early season:

Winners: Kansas 7-2, Texas Tech 6-2, Oklahoma 6-3, West Virginia 6-3

Losers: Baylor 1-4, Texas 4-6, TCU 3-4

 

Pac 12 – Ranking this league second overall might be a little ambitious, given that there is not a jump-off-the-page Final Four candidate anywhere to be found. I’d listen to arguments putting the ACC and even Big East ahead of them (if you want to jump the Big Ten you have to really ignore Rutgers, Penn State, Minnesota, etc…) However, the overall depth and balance give the Pac 12 the very slight nod in my humble estimation. The top of the league isn’t amazing; Arizona isn’t quite as good as they usually are (though still a solid Top 4 seed), Utah is good not great, and big-name UCLA is a little fool’s gold. But it is also hard to find a BAD team anywhere either. Washington State and Stanford might be the two weakest, and neither is anywhere close to as bad as the bottom of the ACC and Big Ten. Meanwhile, USC, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Arizona State are all in the RPI Top 50 and Cal at 88 might wind up being the best team in the league.

My number one sleeper is Cal. They have young NBA talent just starting to figure things out. Their close loss at Virginia was a big step. Expect them to take a few more once conference play begins. I also really like Oregon State. Gary Payton Jr. can play and Tres Trinkle is a good supporting player.

I am wary of UCLA. They played so well against Kentucky that the “UCLA is good” perception will linger. I am not sure they are better than middle of the pack in a crowded Pac 12. Also watch out for Stanford. This is not one of their better recent teams. Smaller name teams like Oregon State and Wazzou could really creep up on them.

WINNERS: USC 9-4, Colorado 7-3, Washington St 7-4

LOSERS: UCLA 4-9, Utah 5-6-1, Cal 5-7, Stanford 4-5

ACC – This is an interesting league. There are three Final Four front-runners in North Carolina, Duke and Virginia. Yet each already has a not-so-great loss; Texas, Utah and George Washington, making all three feel less dangerous than they actually are. Then there is a jumbled middle-of-the-pack which I’d put Miami the class of, then Louisville slightly ahead of Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt and NC State. Then there are interesting cases with Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Florida State which have shown flashes but also taken some not-awesome losses. And then the bottom of Virginia Tech, Boston College and Clemson drag down the pack.

You could argue it is the best league in the country. Or you could argue it all the way down to fifth. I settled in the middle based on the great strength at the top and the depth of the middle of the pack. My favorite sleeper is Pitt. They are tough and better offensively then they have been in year’s past. Look for them to surprise. My other sleeper is Miami. They started the year in stunning dominating fashion, rolling Butler and Utah – both wins look even better after Butler beat Cincinnati and Purdue and Utah beat Duke. They took one weird loss to Northeastern and then seemed to get forgotten, but are still a potential spoiler to the Big Three in the ACC.

I also like Wake Forest. They looked awesome against Indiana. They played well against Xavier for 25 minutes and own wins over Arkansas and UCLA. They won’t make the NCAA Tournament, but they will compete against some teams along the way and get their fair share of covers.

I have already warned you against Clemson back when they were unbeaten. They still stink. Also, fade Syracuse. They SOUND like they should be good, but with losses to Georgetown, Wisconsin and St. John’s, they’ve lost to three of the most under-performing teams in the country and the schedule hasn’t even gotten tough yet.

 

WINNERS: Miami 8-2, Louisville 6-3, Georgia Tech 6-4

LOSERS: Wake Forest 3-7, Duke 4-6, North Carolina 4-6-2, Clemson 3-5

 

Big Ten – OK, I’ll say it now. I’m not sold on Michigan State. They have been #1 in the country for over a month. They are not the best team in the country. Valentine being out gives them an excuse, but don’t be afraid to fade them even once he returns.

Northwestern also scares me a bit. They are SO EASY to root for; the perennial underdog trying to finally make the Big Dance. But their 11-1 record is a mirage. Their best wins are all single digit wins over conference bottom feeders Missouri, DePaul and Virginia Tech. Things are about to get really REAL, and fast. Expect Northwestern to sadly fade. And Minnesota and Wisconsin both reek, but with Penn State, Rutgers and Nebraska around they will get some wins.

Purdue took the loss to Butler, but I still love this team and think they can win the Big Ten and will wind up being Maryland’s biggest challenge. Speaking of the Terps, I’m still very high on Maryland, who might be the best under the radar National Champ threat. I am also still not 100% giving up on Indiana. They are SO talented and the Notre Dame comeback was a nice start.

WINNERS: Purdue 7-2, Michigan State 8-4, Northwestern 6-4-2, Michigan 7-5

LOSERS: Wisconsin 4-9, Minnesota 2-8

 

Big East – If someone ranked the Big East as the best conference in the nation, I wouldn’t balk. If you think Villanova is still a Final Four candidate despite the Oklahoma and Virginia undressings (I do), and you think Xavier’s start is legit (I do), and you buy Butler and Providence as Top Ten teams (I do not), then you have an argument for best league in America.

You already know my affinity for this year’s Xavier squad. I am on the hook this week as they open with Villanova and Butler. I’m either a genius or a dunce. We shall know in seven days. I also like Marquette lurking as a nice sleeper despite their 154 RPI. I’d fade Georgetown and I am not sure Providence is really the 10^th best team in the country. DePaul took a step back after a nice spike last year and Creighton is a little better than expected. Oh, and there may be no depth to how low St. John’s can sink this season. They are freaking awful.

 

WINNERS: Xavier 9-3, Villanova 7-3, Seton Hall 7-4, Creighton 7-4

LOSERS: St. John’s 4-9, DePaul 4-7, Georgetown 5-7

 

SEC – When’s football season start up again? The infusion of coaching talent and facility money hasn’t yet reaped benefits for the SEC conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ranking changes drastically in the next three years, but for now, with underwhelming starts from hopefuls like Vanderbilt and LSU (and Kentucky, frankly), this league is pretty devoid of top shelf talent.

It makes for some interesting possibilities with sleepers like Texas A&M, who appears legit, and Florida, who appears a little better than expected. I’d fade Arkansas and Tennessee. I’m a little higher on Auburn and Ole Miss than most. Oh, and there is a reason South Carolina is one of only five unbeaten teams in the country and ranked just 25^th, LOOK at their vominous schedule. Wager money on them in their first few road games at your own peril.

This league is going to be a really tough league to wager this season as every team seems about the same. Look for value home teams throughout conference play. I’d almost ignore the name on the front of the jersey if I can get points and any home team this season.

 

WINNERS: South Carolina 8-1, Tennessee 7-3, Mississippi St 7-3, Florida 6-3-1, Alabama 6-3, Texas A&M 4-2-1

LOSERS: Kentucky 4-8, LSU 3-7, Arkansas 4-5, Georgia 4-5

 

A couple quick notes before departing: several conferences like the Pac-12 have exceptionally good ATS numbers. Obviously that will level off as they engage in head-to-head play. Also, take ATS records for what they are worth. An ATS loss could be a failed cover by a half point when favored by 17 and tell you very little OR it could be a string indicator that a team is playing worse than their perception, a la Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke or UCLA.

It’s going to be a fantastic conference slate and it starts IMMEDIATELY with Xavier playing Villanova and Butler playing Providence to open the Big East (Xavier v Butler is two days later), Michigan State plays Iowa in the Big Ten, and the Big 12 opens with Oklahoma vs. Iowa State and Baylor vs. Kansas. We will be back mid-week with a host of picks. Until then – Happy New Year (and Happy Hoops).

Feedback? Thoughts? Troll me (politely please and with some witty humour) @TheMarchManiacs