Bucs -3

I think this is a great price to back the Buccaneers at home against the Bears. Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and I look for Tampa Bay to be the more motivated team to close out the season. 

The Buccaneers are a young team with a rookie quarterback and these games can have a huge impact on Jameis Winston and his development going into next season. I know Tampa Bay didn’t look good last week in their loss at St Louis, but they at least showed some fight in a 23-31 defeat. I look for that to carry over into this game. The Buccaneers still have a shot at finishing the season at .500, which would be quite an accomplishment for a team that finished with the worst record in the NFL at 2-14 last year.  

Chicago on the other hand didn’t look interested at all against the Vikings and it showed in a 17-38 loss. If the Bears can’t get up for a division opponent who is fighting to make the playoffs, I have a hard time seeing them get motivated to face the Buccaneers. 

I know these two teams played last year, but I still think there’s some added motivation here for Tampa Bay to get a win for their head coach, especially given they lost the meeting at Chicago last season. It might not be something that is brought up a lot by the media, but you can be assured that’s something the players are well aware of. 

Something else to keep in mind with this matchup in terms of motivation, is the Buccaneers’ offensive line has made it clear that they want to get running back Doug Martin the rushing title. Martin currently trails Adrian Peterson by just 9-yards and is nearly 300 yards ahead of Todd Gurley. This definitely figures to be a matchup where Martin can have a big day, as the Bears come into this game ranked 26th against the run, giving up 125.9 ypg. 

Another thing that you can’t overlook in this game, is the struggles the Bears are having offensively of late. Chicago has scored 21 or fewer points in 5 straight games. Prior to giving up 31 to the Rams last week, Tampa Bay was only allowing 18.2 ppg over their previous 5 games. 

It’s also worth noting that Tampa Bay comes into this game with an extra 3 days of rest/preparation due to playing last week on Thursday Night Football. That’s a huge advantage that often gets overlooked, especially this late in the season when teams are really battling injuries and fatigue. 

Chicago is 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games in the 2nd half o the season against strong offensive teams that are averaging 6 or more yards/play and have lost these games on average by 11.8 ppg (17.0 to 28.8). Bears are also just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing more than 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 30+ points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take Tampa Bay! 

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.