National Semifinal #1: Oklahoma vs. Clemson in the Orange Bowl

Unfortunately, it’s the nature of college football this season that it’s going to be very tough to pin down truly accurate stat projections for the major postseason matchups. There wasn’t much meaningful interconnectivity before league play began. Most highly regarded teams (other than Alabama) didn’t have particularly tough conference slates. Fans and handicappers are going to be flying blind in a lot of ways.

How do we attack Oklahoma/Clemson? Oklahoma is the market betting favorite by more than a field goal on a neutral field even though Clemson is “ranked” #1 in the country. That right there tells you there’s a lack of consensus amongst football followers. Both teams have playmakers on offense and decent defenses…

 

Offensive Yards-per-Play

Oklahoma 7.0

Clemson 6.4

Defensive Yards-per-Play (rush defense in parenthesis)

Oklahoma 4.7 (3.6 yards-allowed-per-carry)

Clemson 4.7 (3.7 yards-allowed-per-carry)

Both teams have wide open attacks that run the ball a bit more than their hype might suggest…

 

Rush Percentages

Oklahoma 58% of the time

Clemson 56% of the time

The general perception is that Oklahoma played the tougher schedule. But, the margin for error this year is such that it’s possible they didn’t. They did draw opposing backup quarterbacks in all of the Baylor game and much of the TCU game.

 

Why is OU favored by more than a field goal? The key reasons would seem to be the following…

• The market is trying to get in synch with the current form of both teams. Oklahoma has closed on fire, covering six of their last seven pointspreads as it became glaringly obvious they were peaking late. The betting line is still trying to find the right spot. Clemson is 4-7 against the spread its last 11 games…meaning they’ve been overrated most of the season. They kept winning games…but not often enough by expected margins.

• Clemson is the much more turnover prone of the two teams. Oklahoma has a +10 turnover differential because they only lost the ball 16 times in 12 games. That level of sharpness is amazing for a team playing at pace vs. a reasonably tough schedule. Clemson is at -2 for the year thanks to 25 giveaways. Clemson is more likely to “lose” the game on high impact mistakes.

• Clemson’s offense really struggled to put points on the board in a “litmus test” game vs. Florida State that most of the country watched. That deserves some extra attention because that’s about the closest thing Clemson saw in terms of defensive athletes to what OU will bring to the table.

Clemson’s First 11 Drives vs. FSU

4 plays, 11 yards…punt

11 plays, 43 yards…punt

7 plays, 44 yards…field goal (down 7-3)

8 plays, 35 yards…punt

6 plays, 32 yards…loss on downs

8 plays, 75 yards…field goal (down 10-6 at halftime)

3 plays, 8 yards…punt

7 plays, 80 yards…touchdown (now leading 13-10)

3 plays, 7 yards…punt

8 plays, 48 yards…punt

11 plays, 75 yards…field goal (to take a 16-13 lead)

That’s 10 of their first 11 drives ending in either a punt, loss on downs, or a field goal. And, that’s 458 “drive” yards leading to only 16 points! Remember, this was at HOME in a huge game against an opponent that’s not as good as Oklahoma. (As you probably remember, Clemson scored a late touchdown in what was ultimately a 23-13 victory that fell just below market expectations.)

Clemson will have big trouble staying with Oklahoma on the scoreboard if they’re just going to gobble up midfield yards on the way to punts and field goal attempts. Just one sample…but a decent-enough match for evaluating Clemson’s offense when challenged by athletes.

After digging through all the numbers, the best hope for Clemson would seem to involve this category:

Third Down Defense

Oklahoma: 40% conversions allowed

Clemson: 25% conversions allowed

Wow…that’s a favorite showing a tendency to let opponents move the ball…and an underdog that has been getting a lot of stops. This could be the category that trumps Clemson’s turnover potential to create an upset. If Oklahoma’s offense can’t get any rhythm going because Clemson’s able to keep thriving on third down defense…then we have a ball game.

 

The case for Oklahoma (-3.5): They have more explosive athletes on both sides of the ball. They have the better per-play offense that looks to be better suited to finishing drives well vs. quality. And, they’ve played such clean football this season (37-7 TD/INT ratio for quarterback Baker Mayfield) that they are truly in control of their own destiny. OU getting a lead will only magnify Clemson’s turnover potential in catch-up mode…leading to a comfortable Sooners victory.

The case for Clemson (+3.5): Oklahoma’s defense worries a bit too much about getting takeaways and not enough about getting stops. That allows Clemson to drive the field consistently and score some touchdowns. If the OU offense stumbles on third downs against the Clemson defense, we have a nailbiter that the underdog could certainly win. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson (30 TDs and 13 INT’s) has to avoid giveaways.

Back with you next week to look at Alabama-Michigan State in the other national semifinal. Merry Christmas!

---

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

---