An absolutely dreadful week of college basketball has proven to be worth it. The wait is over, let the games begin.

Final exams are over, and in their stead a host of college basketball blue bloods have decided to give themselves a pre-conference final exam today with some dynamite matchups. We turned in a winning weekend last week, so let’s see if we can do even better with five picks to span the country this afternoon.

Today’s Free Picks:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -1.5 at Georgia Bulldogs

I usually lean towards the home team in rivalry games, but I think Georgia Tech has something good brewing right now, while the cupboard is still a little bare in Athens. The Wreck have won four of their last five, with the lone loss coming at Villanova, and double-digit wins over VCU and Arkansas.   This isn’t a team that can win the ACC, but a win today puts them in a spot where a .500 conference record could get them back into March Madness for the first time in a long time.

Meanwhile, Georgia enters at 4-3. They have close two-point home losses to Chattanooga and Kansas State; neither one an embarrassment, and a loss at Seton Hall (not good). Their best wins are a three point win over High Point and a four point win over Winthrop – both at home. That tells me today’s home court edge might not quite be all it’s cracked up to be.

Georgia Tech is four percentage points more efficient shooting the basketball and has a +6 rebounding differential over the Bulldogs. Both of those will come into play heavily today. If you shoot better and rebound more effectively, you usually win. Georgia Tech enters with a +10.67 point per game differential while Georgia’s is just +2.6 after a fairly comparable slate of games.

Yes, they are on the road in a rivalry game, but the Yellow Jackets are the better team.

My Pick: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -1.5

 

Wichita State Shockers -4 at Seton Hall Pirates

Wait, 5-4 mid-major Wichita State is a four point road favorite at 8-2 Big East Seton Hall?? Yep. And Vegas ain’t crazy. Wichita State has Fred Van Vleet back, and they are a completely different team than the one who took four straight losses three weeks ago. They already went into UNLV and kicked butt with their general back, and are looking to notch another road win today.

This game is a noon tip on Fox, and it is a nice rare chance for Baker and Van Vleet to say hello to a national audience that is getting used to seeing them play in March. Seton Hall is 8-2, but it is a lot of fool’s gold. They have wins over Dartmouth, Rutgers, Wagner, Bradley, Troy and something called St. Petersburg (maybe the Rays?). They did win home games against Georgia and Mississippi, giving them two quality wins. But their one real game, against George Washington, they got slapped, and they also have a home loss to Long Beach. This team isn’t nearly as good as their record, and of course, Wichita State, isn’t nearly as BAD as theirs.

Look for Wichita State to get better shots and play with more poise, even on the road. They are a tournament quality team, while Seton Hall will be lucky to finish sixth in the Big East if they can edge out Creighton and DePaul (St. John’s should be relegated, barf).

I’ll take my second road team in an early afternoon matchup. I’ll lay the points and take the Shockers to roll in Seton Hall.

My Pick: Wichita State Shockers

 

North Carolina Tarheels -6.5 at UCLA Bruins

This is a points-play only. UCLA is not as good as North Carolina. But they aren’t as bad as I thought they were either. Over the past few weeks they have beaten Kentucky and Gonzaga straight-up, forget the spread, they are winning big-time games. It feels a little fool-hearty NOT to take a half dozen points today.

Then call me a fool.

Yes, last weekend UNC LOST to a mediocre Texas team and UCLA went INTO Gonzaga and beat a good Zags squad. I am STILL not convinced. Today is on a neutral floor, but it is one much closer to home (and in the same time zone) for the Tarheels. They are already the much better team. Add in the cross-country flight and 10am body-clock start for the Bruins? This one has UNC romp written all over it.

Look for UNC to push tempo to a place UCLA’s guards are not ready to follow. I expect at least 16-18 turnovers and about 20 points in easy fashion off of said turnovers. Don’t be surprised if UNC scores 90 points today in the Barclays Center.

UCLA has an impressive resume. I’m not disputing that. Wins over Kentucky and a road win at Gonzaga are probably the two best wins on anyone’s hit list. Keep in mind Karnowski didn’t play for Gonzaga and Poythress got hurt in the UK game. UNC is big AND healthy. I exepect Meeks and Jackson to fare well today. UCLA also has losses to Wake and narrow escapes to Cal Poly, Long Beach and UNLV, all at home.

It’s a fair amount of points to lay on a neutral floor, but I really think we see both team’s true colors this morning in Brooklyn.

My Pick: North Carolina Tarheels -6.5

 

Butler Bulldogs vs. Purdue Boilermakers -4.5 (Indianapolis, IN)

The Bulldogs have made a living out of winning (or at least covering) games on neutral floors they have no business winning. Is today setting up for another Butler special? Well, I might have bought in had Vegas not corrected so heavily for the Butler love. This line is only four? Really? Purdue has steamrolled through their schedule so far, being the ONLY team in Division I to win every single game on its schedule by double-digit margins. They’ve throttled Florida (something Michigan State couldn’t do). They’ve gone into Pitt and steamrolled the Panthers. The rest of their schedule is admittedly weak, but this team is NOT. They are good, athletic, and HUGE. Watch this game on CBS this afternoon – I’ve been writing if for a month now, but this physically LOOKS like an NBA team.

Butler always sounds like team that is the great wager because of their upset pedigree; the tradition of regardless of the roster discrepancy, they have a chance to win. However, they are just 4-5 ATS this season. Purdue is 7-1. It is a true neutral court, being played at Banker’s Life Arena in the hometown of Butler but in the fertile Purdue alumni base. I’d expect the crowd to be pretty split (with any Indiana hold overs from Game One to appropriately root against the Boilermakers).

This should be a fun game, but ultimately, I see another Purdue double-digit winner.

Free Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -4.5

 

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Florida Gators -8

Let’s not get too carried away from the gallant losing effort in East Lansing last week. This isn’t a great Gators team. It’d be a long-shot for them to make the Tournament and I have a hard time laying eight points on them against anyone right now.

Yes, Okie State is ALSO way down this year. They are 7-3 and have lost two of their last four games including losses to Missouri State and Tulsa. They have struggled at home with Minnesota. They struggled with Long Beach. They aren’t great.

But getting eight? I’ll take that cushion against a similarly mediocre Gator squad. The Michigan State trip was an impressive effort. But they’ve been mangled by Purdue and slapped by Miami and their best wins are Florida Gulf Coast and Richmond. They should get a name-brand win today, but I don’t think it will be easy.

Free Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys +8

Enjoy some great hoops today from noon until as late as you can watch. Hopefully it is full of some winners as well! (Arizona vs. UNLV at 9:30 EST or Texas vs. Stanford at 11:30pm EST anyone???)