Falcons +3

The betting public is going to be all over Jacksonville in this game, as the Jaguars come in off a 51-16 blowout win at home over the Colts, while the Falcons were absolutely destroyed in a 0-38 loss on the road the Panthers. The perception here is that Atlanta is finished, as they have now lost 6 straight games. However, the Falcons are still mathematically alive for the NFC Wild Card race and sometimes it’s the ugly losses that light a fire under a team. 

I look for Atlanta to come out extremely motivated here against Jacksonville, who I think is getting a little too much respect right now. I know the Jaguars are just 1-game out of 1st place in the AFC East and have won 3 of their last 5, but those 3 wins have come against the likes of the Ravens, Titans and Colts. Keep in mind the refs mistake late gave them that game against Baltimore, there’s nothing to get excited about beating Tennessee and they only led the Colts 23-16 late in the 3rd quarter. Prior to last week’s blowout loss to Carolina, Atlanta had been extremely competitive in all of their losses, as their largest previous defeat was by just 10-points. 

While it’s been a couple of down years for the Falcons, quarterback Matt Ryan knows a thing or two about playing in big games down the stretch run of the regular season. Jacksonville on the other hand is a team that hasn’t had to deal with success or being in contention for quite some time. I think the pressure gets to the Jaguars in this game. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jacksonville came in to this contest with a big head off their blowout win against the Colts and overlook a Falcons team that hasn’t won since Week 7 and nearly got beat by 40 last week. 

Atlanta’s offense has under-performed of late, but they still come into this game ranked 7th in the NFL at 374.6 ypg. I believe this is a game where the Falcons will have no problem moving the football. Atlanta’s strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 7th at 270.1 ypg. They will be going up against a Jaguars secondary that ranks 24th against the pass, allowing 261.7 ypg. 

The Falcons are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off a road blowout loss by 21 or more points, while the Jaguars are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have a losing record on the season and are coming off a road loss are are 28-5 (85%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! 

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.