Connecticut at Marshall (-4)

Perhaps the public is partaking in some eye test pleasantry because I would have perceived the opposite end to open as favorites. Coming from someone that’s paid a great deal of attention to the Conference USA, I can say with my chest held high that I don’t believe any of the five teams playing in the upcoming slate to rein victorious, straight up or against the spread.

What do we typically peg Marshall synonymous with? Offense. It’s been a cluttered season for the Thundering Herd, albeit injuries and chemistry problems take the cake. Freshman quarterback Chase Litton enjoyed a decent inaugural season, yet this is more of the paper test again, if anything. The C-USA lacked depth this season and from top to bottom may have been the worst conference in college football, which makes dissecting performances for Marshall quite rough.

When it did find itself locked up versus a viable opponent, the offense was a mere shadow of year’s past. There’s no real deep threat—aside from DeAndre Reaves—and the intermediate passing game is exactly what Uconn will take. It’s a Huskies defense that ranked 21^st in the passing game and should be able to suppress the Thundering Herd running game, which features ex-wide receiver Hyleck Foster as the starting tailback, given top-tier running back Devon Johnson remains sidelined with a back injury.

Connecticut doesn’t necessarily have the numbers that point to a clear edge: sure, the Huskies dealt the East Carolina Pirates an 18-point loss, but this came at the crux of the Pirates season where they appeared to have been on their way to mailing it in. A Greg Ward-less Houston Cougars team also played victim to Uconn by a field goal.

However, the value with four points is enough for me to recommend a play on Connecticut. I didn’t like much from Marshall this season on offense and I believe this will truly be the first real ‘stout’ and stingy defense that the Herd will square off against. This season alone, Uconn’s been a single-digit underdog four times, and in those four games, they’re surrendering just 18.3 points per game.

Pick: Uconn +4/+180

 

South Florida vs. Western Kentucky (-2.5)

It may not be much chalk to lay for the high and mighty Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, but this is another case of public perception and deception, in my opinion. Western Kentucky gains a plethora of notoriety stemming from quarterback Brandon Doughty and perhaps the most fun offense amidst the mid majors, but who’s to say that the South Florida Bulls can’t pose a problem for the WKU offense? A once-sputtering USF offense really fumbled around the early fraction of 2015 with minimal makeup and identity, kicking off the season (aside from Florida A&M) by raking in three losses and only 48 combined points against Florida State, Maryland and Memphis.

Head coach Willie Taggart dabbled in the passing game and struck gold with quarterback Quentin Flowers as the Bulls dialed up seven wins in eight tries to stamp the envelope on a tremendous year. Flowers culminated the season by throwing 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. Not to belittle the running game, tailback Marlon Mack surpassed the century mark in those seven wins, and could be a prime key to opening up the passing game on December 21^st.

Glossing over the matchup and what South Florida will see come next Monday, the defense has stood tall versus offense that vie for spreading the formation sideline-to-sideline. The Bulls held the Cincinnati Bearcats to 27 points en route to a 38-point win, surrendered just 17 points to the East Carolina Pirates, and held Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch in check by only allowing 24 points.

With a handful of weeks to prepare for the upbeat, aerial attack of Western Kentucky, I’ll back a team that is flying under the radar.

Pick: South Florida Bulls +2.5/+130

 

Strange but True

• Four of the last five bowl slates have seen the lowest total go ‘Over’ (Georgia-Penn State, 41.5)

• Les Miles/LSU is 0-4 against the spread the last four bowl games with a -10.6 margin (ats) [-7 versus Texas Tech]

• Mark Dantonio/Michigan State is 4-0 straight up the last four bowl games, winning as an underdog in all four [+9.5 versus Alabama]

• The last four Christmas Eve night games have gone ‘Under’ the total [San Diego State-Cincinnati, 58.5]

• Group of Five teams who are double-digit underdogs are just 1-6 against the spread the last four seasons [Virginia Tech -13.5 versus Tulsa]

• Utah is 6-1 SU in bowl games since head coach Kyle Whittingham took over in 2005 [-2.5 versus BYU]

• The PAC 12 is just 2-8 ATS in bowls versus the Big 12 since 2010 [West Virginia versus Arizona State -1]

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