Saturday is an absolutely monster day of college hoops, so to get prepared let’s take a look at some things you need to know before this huge weekend of showdown games (and great possible wagering opportunities). We’ll be back after the flurry of action to check in on the status of various tams across the nation in our weekly stock up/stock down, but for now, let’s get primed for a great day of Saturday action with five game breakdowns to carry you from morning until the evening. Happy Hoops!

FIVE to Watch:

Ohio State Buckeyes at UConn Huskies (Gampel Pavillion, Storrs, CT) — Noon (EST) on CBS

Neither team is in vintage form this season, but this is an intriguing game nonetheless. This might be the worst team Thad Motta has had during his tenure at Ohio State. They enter today at just 4-4 with losses to Texas Arlington and Louisiana Tech and in legitimate danger of missing the Big Dance if things don’t rapidly improve before the Big Ten gauntlet.  They followed up those two losses with losses to Memphis in multiple overtimes and a close loss to a very good Virginia squad. They’ve won their last two, though against admittedly lesser competition, VMI and Air Force by 51 points.

While most see a team that is 4-4 without a quality win, I see a team that is actually improving. It isn’t like Motta doesn’t have any talent. Mark Loving has been excellent averaging over 17 a game and young players, Jae’Sean Tate (SO) and JaQuan Lyle (FR) give them big, athletic talented wings who are starting to find their rhythm as college players.

Meanwhile, UConn has shown some good flashes, but at times still resembles last year’s team that eventually missed a chance to defend their NCAA crown. They have a good win against Michigan (who doesn’t this year) and close losses to Gonzaga, Syracuse and a ten-point loss to a clearly-better Maryland team (that got way wider in margin thanks to Coach Ollie’s meltdown – UConn actually competed in this game).

UConn is the superior team. But I don’t think they are a “blow you out of the gym” type team. I like Ohio State to compete most of the game and hang tight enough to cover with the healthy nine point spread. Both teams are .500 this year against the number and are similar in all offensive and defensive metrics. This is a closer matchup than it might appear at first glance between pretty similar teams athletically.

MY PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +9

Marquette Golden Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers (Madison, WI) – 1:30 (EST) on ESPN2

What on Earth is going on at the Kohl Center? For YEARS, it was the gym opposing teams went to die. No one won at the Kohl Center, certainly not nonconference foes, and CERTAINLY not Western Illinois and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Yet that is where this year’s Badgers find themselves; 6-4 with two perplexingly bad losses, yet good wins over VCU and Syracuse and decent wins over Siena, North Dakota and Temple. This isn’t a terrible team. But man, have they laid a few giant eggs this season.

Enter Marquette. Second-year coach Wojo has this team arriving a little ahead of schedule, thanks in large part to big-time freshman Henry Ellenson. Marquette is respectable this season, making today’s battle for Wisconsin really intriguing. Both teams have lost their fair share of games and REALLY could use another chip in the “at-large resume” pile. Marquette opened with a tough loss to Belmont and got blasted by Iowa (who looks WAY better than people thought. Jared Utoff is a beast). They’ve won their other seven games but the best win is probably Arizona State, followed by a disappointing LSU and five tomato cans. They really need some more meat on the resume.

This is an intense rivalry, a la the Iowa vs. Iowa State game from last night or the Cincinnati vs. Xavier game we will get to shortly. I like tight games in most rivalry situations, and this is no exception. I think Wisconsin is the slightly better team and certainly a little more experienced. But Wisconsin, as good as Nigel Hayes is, doesn’t have ANYONE close to the level of Ellenson. Look for him to have a “welcome to the national spotlight” type game to keep the Eagles close. Close enough to at last cover, and don’t be stunned if they steal a HUGE signature win.

MY PICK: MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES +7.5

 

Utah Utes at Wichita State Shockers – 3:30 (EST) on ESPN2

What a difference a point guard makes huh? Especially an All-American one like Fred Van Vleet. The Shockers looked shockingly bad in his absence, losing more games in two weeks than they had in two regular seasons. However, Freddie is back, and with him back running the show, sleep on the Wheat Shockers at your own peril.

Utah is real good. Jakob Potel is a likely lottery pick, and is capable of winning games by himself. He is a beast in the post averaging 21.2 ppg, has good range, and has already blocked 20 shots in eight games. His running-mate Jordan Loveridge is money too, averaging over 15 a game on over 48% shooting. Utah is a sure-fire tourney team, and on a neutral floor, I think I like them over WSU.

But this game is NOT on a neutral floor. It is in Wichita on national television in a game Van Vleet and Baker know they HAVE to have after dropping a fistful of games already in the pre-conference schedule; which is where teams like WSU have to really earn their March seed. They’ve already beaten UNLV with Van Vleet back, and stacking a win against a good Utah team will help allay any fears over the four-game winning streak being anything more than missing their floor leader.

Utah is 7-1, but their best wins are all a little meh. San Diego State (who is way down this year), BYU (ditto), Temple (um, ditto) and their best opponent, Miami beat the ever-loving snot out of them, 90-66. One real test, and they FAILED. I think they FAIL today in Wichita as well, and am STUNNED I only have to lay two in the process. This is my favorite play of the day. Take the Shocks at home.

MY PICK: WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS -2

Cincinnati Bearcats at Xavier Musketeers -5 (Xavier’s Cintas Center ) — 5:30 (EST) on FOX1

I am usually want to take the points in a rivalry game, but what I have seen of Xavier so far in 2015 simply won’t allow me to do it. They rebound with absolute ferocity and defend well at every position with a big, long, athletic defender. They have plenty of shooting with Blueitt, Farr and Abel, and plenty of ‘nasty’ with Jalen Reynolds (who plays like a young Kevin Garnet attitudinally (is that a word? It should be. Either way, he brings that KG stank to the gym every night).

Cincinnati is good, but I don’t think they are efficient enough offensively to stick with this team. They struggled in their last home game against Butler (a two-point loss) and have needed to go to the wire to beat Nebraska and George Washington (who is good – no knock on GW). But Xavier is in a different class. They have the best point differential of any major conference team as well as rebounding margin, and have done it against a very reasonable schedule. The emotions will be high in this rivalry that was SO intense they had to move it off-campus for a few years after tempers got loose in 2012. Expect a clean game, but a REALLY physical one. At the end of the day though, Xavier has way more offensive weapons and a deeper bench. I don’t love laying the points in rivalry games, but I’ll do it in this case.

MY PICK: XAVIER MUSKETEERS -5

 

UCLA Bruins at Gonzaga Bulldogs -9 (Spokane, WA) – 10:00 PM ESPN2

I’ve gotten some mileage on other sites talking about UCLA and how their win over Kentucky, while a nice moment, doesn’t make this a great basketball team. They promptly went out and struggled (and failed to cover) against Long Beach State. And as brilliant as that one night in Pauley Pavilion was, this is STILL a team that lost to Wake Forest and struggled with UNLV and Cal Poly at home.

And tonight, they are NOT at home. I got burnt last week picking against Arizona in The Kennel. UCLA is not as good as Arizona. Plus, Karnowski didn’t play in that game, which really limited the insane advantage Gonzaga has in the frontcourt over nearly every single team in the country.   Wiltjer is the rare college star who can get you 20 a game reliable and can also get his own shot efficiently without forcing bad looks. He has a little skinny-Dirk in his game; he is always open if for no other reason that he can awkwardly (and effectively) shoot over the top of his defender.

UCLA won’t have a counter. Forget the polarity of the extremes we saw from these teams last week. Gonzaga is the better team. The Kennel is a nightmare place to play.  I just can’t quit you Zags.  Don’t make me regret it…

I’ll take the Zags eating the nine points.

MY PICK: GONZAGA BULLDOGS -9