It’s less than a month in, but I think we can already see pretty clearly what kind of college basketball season we are in store for; a turbulent one. Aside from Michigan State, Iowa State, Villanova and Oklahoma, no elite team has been blemish-less (and it is only December 7th). And in all fairness, aside from Michigan State, none of the remaining highly-ranked unbeatens have a ton on their resumes to bolster any confidence that they are truly national-champion material (Though Oklahoma and Villanova get a BIG TIME opportunity against each other tonight in a fantastic matchup on FS1). That isn’t to say none of those teams are good. All are legit Top 10 teams. But the point is no one has really separated or proven themselves yet, a la last year’s UK squad.

The word, is parity. And it is very real this season in college hoops.

In fact, if forced to list my five best teams in the country, I’d probably lean entirely to teams with losses; Norh Carolina, Kansas, Maryland, Kentucky and probably Duke – maybe Michigan State (though I still think their ceiling is much lower than the previous four)

The point is, this season, more so than last year, is really volatile and parity driven. Most years there are 15-20 teams that you could see making a run in March. This year, given the vulnerability of the five teams I’ve listed above, you could make a case for 40-45 teams being good enough to fall somewhere between 10-20 in the polls come February. That makes some of these teams floating in the greater than 50/1 future range like Xavier and Purdue so tantalizing…

But first, here are three teams I am a little wary of wagering on unless the line is GREAT given their completely schizophrenic results in the early season.

Three to Beware:         

1. Miami (FL) – I was all in two weeks ago, and the Canes’ performance merited the excitement. The Butler win was commanding, the win at Utah was a head-snapping 90-66 domination. Then last week they lost to Northeastern (who lost yesterday to Detroit, the school, not the Pistons) and have also lost to Miami (OH) and won by just two against FAU (seriously, what is this, Gators’ football??!). The following game Miami needed the final possessions to beat Nebraska. Sure, they won by a million against Charlotte this weekend, but this is as BAD as Charlotte has been in a while.

I still like this Miami team, but I’m going to play it pretty conservatively with them for the time being, unless a line is too good to ignore.

2. Memphis Tigers – What to make of Josh Pastner’s club? They hang with Oklahoma. Impressive. They lose to Texas Arlington and struggle with Ohio State. Not impressive. Then they absolutely smoke a good LA Tech team. So is this a tourney team? I’m not sure, but I do know their offense and shooting are erratic enough to sincerely not know exactly whether a blowout in either direction is in store any particular evening. They have an interesting game next weekend with Manhattan and then with Ole Miss a week later. I’m a little gun-shy on deciding if this team is good, bad, or somewhere in between and am staying away from their games until I get a better read.

3. VCU Rams – Look, at 5-3, no one is too disappointed in the Rams first season without Briante Webber and departed coach Shaka Smart. But after watching them play very well against Duke on a neutral floor and have a shot to beat Wisconsin at the buzzer, I had the Rams on my radar as a team that could be legit. Since then, they played OK against Old Dominion in a win, scuffled a bit in a win over Middle Tennessee and lost close at Florida State. It isn’t that they are ever getting embarrassed, they just aren’t winning against any of the good teams they meet. Unless they are getting some points this week at Georgia Tech, I might be leaning towards a play on the Ramblin’ Wreck.

 

Undervalued Teams:

1. Arkansas Little Rock – They are 7-0, but more impressively, 4-0 ATS, making them one of the best values in the nation so far this year. Their schedule hasn’t been awesome, obviously, but it hasn’t been dreadful either.   They’ve beaten East Carolina, Tulsa, and San Diego State. DePaul and Texas Tech are on major-conference Upset Alert for sure over the next two weeks. Remember this team as the pesky likely Sun Belt entrant come March (or hell, win the two aforementioned games and go 14-2 in conference and they could be an at-large team even if they lose the Sun Belt Tourney)

 

2. Iowa Hawkeyes – Iowa’s early losses to Dayton and Notre Dame knocked them off the radar. But since then, they’ve reeled off three straight wins including a nice win over Florida State. They now own wins over FSU, Wichita State, and a decimation of a decent Marquette team. Their RPI is still 82 and their perception is fairly mediocre. That could provide some decent lines for their upcoming game at Iowa State this week. If I can get double digits in a rivalry game, I might side with the savvy experience of Uthoff and Woodberry.

3. South Carolina Gamecocks – Like him or not, Frank Martin’s teams have a way of rapidly improving (and rapidly matching his borderline rabid intensity). Last year’s squad flirted with the notion of being the SEC sleeper after a solid non-con before a disappointing conference showing. This year, they look a little more legit. They are perfect on the season, and while they don’t have a marquee win that’ll launch them into the polls, they do have decent wins over DePaul and Tulsa. Ok, their schedule is pretty bad.   But they’ve got some experience returning from last year’s developing squad, and so far in 2015 they won every game by at least 12 points, meaning upcoming games against not-good brand-name teams like Clemson, St. John’s and (see above) Memphis, could provide some nice value lines.

4. Xavier Musketeers – I wrote about them last week too, but I’m still buying this team.  They are just beating the hell out of everyone they play. We will find out a ton more after next weekend’s Crosstown Shootout with Cincinnati, but given that the game is at Cintas, unless the line is out of control, I’ll stay on the Muskies. They are #1 in the RPI and #1 in the nation in point differential. This team is big and physical, but also skilled on the perimeter. They rebound like animals. They defend the same way.

Check out this schedule over the next three weeks: Wright State (warm up), Cincinnati, Auburn, Wake Forest, @ Villanova, Butler. Phew. Go 5-1 through that, and their odds to win the title, which have already dropped from 200:1 to 66:1 will likely get down around 30. I’m taking a small early stake. If they are as good as they’ve looked, this could be a 2-seed with their schedule. And again, NO I don’t think they have anywhere close to the ceiling of Kentucky, Kansas or UNC. But they might be right in that second tier, making 66:1 insane. (5dimes still had 200:1 last week).

 

BEST PLAYS IN 2015:

Here’s some teams that have been money ATS – Ark Little Rock (4-0 ATS), Central Florida (5-0 ATS), Georgetown (5-1 ATS), Florida (4-1-1 ATS), IPFW (7-0 ATS), Kansas State (5-0 ATS), Mississippi State (5-1 ATS), South Carolina (5-1 ATS), South Dakota State (5-0 ATS), Vanderbilt (5-1 ATS), Villanova (5-1 ATS) and Southern Miss (5-0 ATS, despite being 0-6 straight-up – go figure)

And of course, SOME OF THE WORST:

LSU Fightin’ Ben Simmons’es (0-5 ATS), Davidson (1-5 ATS after yesterday’s obliteration in Chapel Hill), Texas (1-5 ATS), Georgia (1-5 ATS), and Arkansas (1-4 ATS)

It’s a good week of college hoops with glamour matchups like Villanova vs. Oklahoma, West Virginia vs. UVA and UConn vs. Maryland @ Madison Square Garden, Florida @ Miami, and Iowa @ Iowa State. Enjoy some great hoops – and hopefully you can pick up some nice winners under the radar as well.