What a difference a week makes, huh? When last we spoke I was a firm HOLD on both Kentucky and Purdue, for varying reasons. Suffice it to say the HOLD on Purdue is upgraded to a BUY. That team is legit and the win at Pitt proved it. Just look at them on the court – it LOOKS like an NBA team size-wise, and they are talented to boot. I’m not sure they can’t sneak up an win the ridiculously loaded Big Ten. Meanwhile, what to make of the Wildcats? The nation’s top-ranked team got boatraced in Pauley Pavilion by a thoroughly average UCLA squad. More disconcerting for Wildcat fans is that the loss came WITH a seemingly-healthy Tyler Ulis playing 38 minutes. So who are these Kentucky Wildcats? Obviously, they are not the defensive juggernaut of last season, but in the season opener on a big national stage against Duke they looked breathtakingly devastating on offense. I literally gasped after watching that game, immediately recoiling from my “Kansas to win the national championship” pick earlier that week.

Watching that Duke game, it was clear Kentucky had the highest ceiling of any team in the country. Watching the UCLA game was a reminder this season is WIDE OPEN.

At least Indiana remains the team I’d most want employed by the bank if I were planning a high-stakes heist… free money baby. Free money.

Speaking of free money, let’s see if we can make some today with a pair of weekend picks.

Syracuse Orange at Georgetown Hoyas -5.5

College basketball lines get released pretty late; usually within about 24 hours of tipoff or later. But I am usually pretty good – within a point or two, of knowing what to expect. I had this game pegged as a one or two point line for Georgetown max. The 5.5 number definitely surprised me this morning.

There are two mitigating factors. One, the lingering doubt over the Orange, who were picked ninth in the ACC, and two, the rapidly moved-up suspension of Coach Boeheim. The Orange got a nice two-day notice that, oh, your coach is now suspended this weekend instead of the end of the month like we originally ruled. A little twisting of the knife by the NCAA Boeheim has been so critical of?   Methinks so. However, if you are an Orange fan, you could view it as a hidden blessing since he will now be back for the UNC game.

So does losing their coach really matter? And is it enough to turn what should be a very close game (and looking objectively at this season’s performance, The ‘Cuse should be about a four point fave on a neutral court, maybe a one point dog on the road) into a half dozen cushion? I don’t think it’ll make that big of a deal. If anything, in the immediate short-term, it might be a nice fire-lighter; like when a coach gets a silly tech to wake up his squad. Expect Syracuse to be extremely focused and have a little extra emotion today.

Syracuse has already taken down Texas A&M and UConn and lost a tough game to Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Georgetown looked tough in losses to Maryland and Duke, but looked a little less-great in an opening loss to Radford. The point is, Georgetown is a solid ball club, but they aren’t a half dozen points better than Syracuse. They could muster up a big effort at home and overwhelm a coach-less Cuse, but I don’t think that is how it unfolds today.

Syracuse is a good shooting ballclub who laid their egg against Wisconsin, floundering with 7 of 24 shooting from deep and a miserable 11 of 20 from the line. Look for them to regress to the norm today and shoot the ball well enough to at least cover. I wouldn’t be stunned if they won outright, which makes a half-dozen points all the more attractive.

Today’s Pick:   Syracuse Orange +5.5

Arizona Wildcats at Gonzaga Bulldogs -7

I’m not usually a huge fan of laying large amounts of points to fade against highly-ranked traditional powers. But as I wrote last week, this Arizona team is a little bit of fool’s gold, living mightily on past season’s results and a shiny reputation, when in truth, this year’s squad is one of Sean Miller’s weakest since arriving in Tuscon. Making things even MORE complicated today is the injury to senior seven-footer Kaleb Tarcewzski.

Talk about bad timing. Playing your first game without your preseason all-conference center against the best frontcourt in the nation on their home floor is a recipe for bad things. Unlike in year’s past, Arizona doesn’t have a Lottery Pick level NBA talent on the roster. Their best scorer, Gabe York, is a nice college player, but was a well-suited role player on past teams. There is no Aaron Gordon or Stanley Robinson on this roster. Neither is their long-time floor general TJ McConnell, and we have already seen this year how vital a floor general can be in college basketball.

Look for Karnowski and Sabonis to really press their advantage today inside. Arizona doesn’t have the bodies or talent to answer. Once you throw in Wiltjer to stretch the floor, you could very well see Arizona forced to pack in a zone to have any chance to survive. This will take some of the pressure off Gonzaga’s less experienced backcourt to “create” plays and will instead let them snipe away. That suits Josh Perkins just fine, who is shooting 47% from distance this year. Look for him to be a factor tonight. I also like super-sub Kyle Draginis to be a factor as well. Gonzaga still has some questions in the backcourt that need to be answered before this team can be considered a legit Final Four threat. But today is a nice day to start figuring it out. They are at home and their frontcourt advantage is SO pronounced, it takes a lot of the pressure off. This is also Arizona’s first true road game of the season, which is a tough spot to play short-handed.

These two played a classic last year and have signed on to continue playing through the 2018-2019 season (same as G’town v Syracuse – nice job college basketball!!). I think this series is going to become one of the most anticipated non-con games of the season. But today isn’t going to be a classic. I think Gonzaga wins relatively easily at home.

Today’s Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs -7

 

Those are my two favorite games and the two highest-profile games on today’s slate. For the true college hoops junkie, Providence at Rhode Island and Northern Iowa at Richmond (I lean to both road teams slightly) are great games, and there’s no shame in staying up late to see if Texas A&M can build on a hot start with a quality win at Arizona State.

Good luck today – and enjoy some great hoops!