Chargers +4

No surprise here to see the betting public all over the Broncos after last week’s thrilling win over the Patriots in a nationally televised home game. Denver put an end to New England’s perfect start 10-0 start to the season and did so in thrilling fashion, erasing a 14-point 4th quarter deficit. I believe it has the Broncos overvalued on the road against a capable division opponent in San Diego. 

That win over the Patriots may look good on paper, but let’s not forget it came against a New England team that has been decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Even with all the injuries, the Broncos were very fortunate to win that game, which to me is concerning, especially with them laying points on the road. 

Denver comes into this game with a 5-1 record on the road, but they could just as easily be 2-4 or even 1-5. The Broncos were gift-wrapped a game at Kansas City early in the season, were far from impressive in a 24-12 win at Detroit, benefited from a pick-six in a 16-10 win at Oakland, barely scraped by the Browns 26-23 and won 17-15 at Chicago. The lone loss came against the Colts 24-27, which just so happened to be in a very similar spot to where we find Denver this week. The defeat to Indianapolis followed a huge 29-10 win over the Packers at home on Sunday Night Football. I’ll gladly take the points, but I would not be surprised at all if the Broncos came out flat and lost this game. 

The Chargers come into this game off a 31-25 win at Jacksonville, where they were way undervalued as a 5-point underdog due to losing their previous 6 games. Beating the Jaguars isn’t going to change the perception on San Diego, but this is a team that is much better than their 3-8 record. Out of their 8 losses, 6 have come by 8 points or less. 

Given the rivalry between these two division teams, I have little to no concern with the Chargers not showing up for this game, despite the the fact that they are all but out of the playoff picture. Even if it wasn’t the Broncos, there’s a good chance this team would come out swinging. Philip Rivers is the leader of this team and he’s one of the most competitive quarterbacks in the game. 

Another thing here that you have to keep in mind is the injuries that Denver is dealing with on both sides of the ball. The Broncos aren’t expected to have the services of guard Louis Vasquez, which is definitely a big concern given how bad their offensive line has been this season. Defensively they won’t have nose tackle Sylvester Williams and safety T.J. Ward, leaving them vulnerable in the middle of the field. San Diego on the other hand is a team that is starting to get healthy again and injuries are a big reason for their 3-8 record. 

This all comes down the situation and this is a horrible spot for Denver and a great spot for the Chargers, making this an easy play for me on San Diego plus the points on Sunday. Keep in mind the Broncos are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. Take San Diego! 

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.