With conference championships zeroed in on Saturday, upset alerts incline to a whole new level.

Those that are pegged as vulnerable could potentially botch a slot in the College Football Playoff; others are hoping that a win springs them in.

Chaos ensued on the final Saturday of the season should contain all this and more. Here’s who I believe could fall victim as favorites this weekend.

 

Southern Mississippi at Western Kentucky (-7.5)

With implications set high for the Power Five, the ‘books will absorb a supple amount of action on the ACC, Big Ten, and so on. Last week’s primary focus was on Notre Dame; this week will be dialed back a bit as I feel the value could on the road side of the Conference USA Championship.

Undervalued all season long, the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have turned the tables on a 3-9 2014 season by flipping that record around in 2015. The latest victim on USM’s schedule was Louisiana Tech, who the Golden Eagles trounced by 24 points last Saturday, subsequently flinging them into the C-USA title game versus Western Kentucky.

For Southern Miss, the pieces have aligned in proper order. Head coach Todd Monken is the dynamic offensive guru that mentors quarterback Nick Mullens, who is second in the conference in terms of passing yards with 3,964 trailing only his next opponent in Hilltoppers gunslinger Brandon Doughty.

We know what we’re getting with both teams: aerial attacks and a substantial amount of plays run. Western Kentucky will dice defenses up with wide receiver Jared Dangerfield and mismatch tight end Tyler Higbee between the hashmarks then take its shots deep with wide receivers Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris. Southern Mississippi can match pace with its playmakers in Michael Thomas, Casey Martin and D.J. Thompson.

The question heading into 2015 for the Hilltoppers was if the defense can be well-suited to—at the bare minimum—get enough stops to aid the offense. It’s a bend-but-don’t-break defense but has also stepped up this season. Linebacker Nick Holt and defensive back Wonderful Terry head a much improved unit that hasn’t budged much in conference play.

And that’s where problems arise for me in backing Western Kentucky. On five occasions where the Hilltoppers matched up versus capable offenses (Indiana, LSU, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee), they’re allowing 36 points per game. That doesn’t bode well as WKU welcomes an offense in Southern Mississippi that is averaging 41.6 points and 534.8 total yards per game.

I believe Western Kentucky is every bit as good on paper and on the field, but giving eight points to a team that has shown it can score at will is a bit misleading, even with Doughty and his arsenal of weapons.

It would be a storybook ending for the Golden Eagles and I believe Nick Mullens poses a problem to a secondary that has succumbed when under duress.

Pick: Southern Mississippi  Golden Eagles +8/+290

 

 

Iowa vs. Michigan State (-3.5)

The doubters have been present in full force the recent weeks: nobody believes in Iowa. From cakewalk schedules to lack of flair, a majority of the general public has found a flaw in the Hawkeyes and why they aren’t justified to break the College Football Playoff. Lo and behold, Iowa is a mere victory away from stunning the nation.

Michigan State at 11-1 is a terrific story with overcoming a brutal defeat to Nebraska, only to rally and upend Ohio State in Columbus and drub the Penn State Nittany Lions to seal up the Big Ten East. What once began as a slow start in terms of covering the spread, the Spartans have erased six straight losses by against the number in its first six games by covering three consecutive and five of the last six. It’s a hot ball club with a seasoned quarterback in Connor Cook that has all the right pieces.

When making a case for Iowa, you have to look at the balance. Jordan Canzeri at running back is the go-to guy on offense and the Hawkeyes will be battle tested by a Michigan State defense that ranks 15^th in the nation via run defense. Quarterback C.J. Beathard has exceeded expectations all season long and can stamp the envelope on an illustrious 2015.

I’ll give Michigan State the edge on defense and in terms of momentum but Iowa has remained composed in every facet of the game: as an underdog it ousted Wisconsin in Madison and two potential trap games in Indiana and Nebraska both saw the Hawkeyes walk out with a victory.

Whether it be a Cinderella story or just a mere fluke, I’m buying into the Iowa hype.

Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5/+175