What a difference a week makes, eh? Such is life in early season college hoops when an offseason of hypothetical recruiting rankings and team chemistry expositions gives way to hard data; head-to-head matchups, often randomly assigned in less than 24 hours due to the quick nature of preconference tournaments, begin to give us a real-life look at just WHAT some of these teams are made of.

Some teams show promise beyond expectations. Michigan State, Xavier, Syracuse and Texas A&M get on a bigger stage and JUMP UP in your face screaming “you forgot about US!” And other teams get on a national stage and tip their hand only to reveal they might have needed a few more cards.

Wichita State, Cal and Indiana have all been big disappointments (yes, Wichita State has injuries, but three losses in a week is a tough look for a team that had equaled their regular season loss total for the past two years in a span of six days).

So who is for real and who has some real work to do to become a viable March contender?

Let’s take a look at some of the more intriguing cases in the early season, as well as what it means for their short and long term wagering prospects.

STOCK UP:

Xavier Musketeers – Xavier started the season unranked and picked fourth in the Big East. I’d imagine they will be ranked in the low teens today. They are now 7-0, having beaten every opponent by at least nine points and their last four games, all against major conference teams by a combined 72 points. They built on last week’s blowout win in Ann Arbor by blitzing a solid tourney field in Orlando and decimating Alabama, USC and Dayton.

It’s not a fluke. This team has experience and athleticism. They rebound like maniacs, posting a +16 rebound per game edge in the early season and they are top ten across D1 in nearly every statistical team measurement. Jalen Reynolds is a Rodman-like rebounder and defender and Treveon Blueitt is a legit Big East POY contender. The big question was replacing long-time starter Dee Davis at point and post anchor Matt Stainbrook. Edmond Sumner has been good at the point as a freshman, becoming the second leading scorer (though you’d like to see the 2.9/2.4 assist to turnover ratio improve) and despite how good Stainbrook was, the team plays a little freer and faster this season with less-traditional but more athletic bigs. They have five guys averaging double figures and another two averaging over 7.6. They have great balance and excellent intensity. This team will be a tough out all season long.

Xavier is really good and a nice sleeper to watch. They have a Dec 12^th game against cross-town rival Cincinnati in what could be one of the best non-conference games of the year. Cincinnati is unbeaten and good as well, having run their record to 7-0 after beating a good George Washington team. Then Dec 31^st, they ring out 2015 with a trip to Villanova.

If they can split those two games, there is no reason not to expect a Top 4 seed come March. Many online books still have them as high as 100/1. That’s an insane value to lock in. They aren’t likely to win a title, but any team that gets into a Sweet 16 with odds that long offers up some awesome hedging opportunities.

Iowa State Cyclones – Their five starters all average more than 13.8 ppg, and all five of them were major contributors last season. They are led by one of the most accomplished college basketball players in the last 15 years in Georges Niang (keeping in mind that, yes, most elite talent leaves after one year, but STILL, he is a Dougie McBuckets-level collegiate greatness) and appear to be just as cohesive as a unit despite Fred Hoiberg’s departure to coach the Bulls. They haven’t played anyone of real repute yet, which could bode well for keeping lines in check. Their schedule will pick up in a week or two with games against Iowa, @Cincinnati, and Northern Iowa. This a team to keep an eye on. I’ve seen them listed at as high as 30/1 to win the whole thing. That’s a pretty good price for a team that is trending as a #2 seed.

Kansas Jayhawks – In a different publication I picked them as my 2016 National Champion, with a caveat: they have to get Diallo eligible. Well, he is starting Dec 1^st.   In the meantime, this team has put the opening Michigan State loss behind them and beaten an excellent Vanderbilt team that will challenge to win the SEC if Kentucky falters (more on that later). They have closed to 12/1 in most books. Still a good value for a team that has only one or two peers once this roster gels with Diallo in the mix.

 

HOLD:

Purdue Boilermakers – This is one of the best teams in the country that no one has noticed yet. Things swung mightily when Caleb Swanigan decommitted from Michigan State and eventual signed with the hometown Boilers. Add him to talented seven-footer AJ Hammond, and you have a dangerous team.   Swingmen Raphael Davis and Vince Edwards are each shooting 54% from the floor, and even more intriguing is that Hammond has been outplayed by a less-heralded teammate – 7’2’’ Isaac Haas. The sophomore big man has averaged 15 and 6.5 and has upped his blocks per game to 2.3. Those two make Purdue a simply enormous team and a nightmare to get to the rim against. Their slashing wings are 6’6 and 6’8’’ respectively. This team LOOKS like an NBA team when they trot out on the floor.

They have already laid waste to Florida and held Old Dominion to just 39 points. They get a real test at Pitt Tuesday night, and I will be interested to see how they play against a physical team that looked better than expectations in the brief half I saw them play against Gonzaga. If Purdue can handle that game, I anticipate expectations to ramp up significantly. They are much bigger, but Pitt isn’t a school that traditional bristles at minor inconveniences like that under Jamie Dixon.

I like this Purdie team a lot. The reason they are a hold, is I truly am not sure how they respond at Pitt in The Zoo. This is a good one to watch with a scouting eye and the money sitting safely on the shelf.

Kentucky Wildcats – Nothing much to say here other than this team is awesome. They look like the best team in the country. And I am convinced the number one reason WHY is Tyler Ulis. Until the exact status of Ulis (and reports are he may only miss a game or two) I’m on hold with the Big Blue. We saw how much missing an All-American point guard can change a team, right Wichita State (stock DOWN, by the way)

 

SELL:

Arizona Wildcats – I think this team had a top ten ranking based on reputation. They have already lost to Providence (who promptly lost by double-digits to Michigan State immediately afterwards) and struggled mightily in a narrow win over Santa Clara. They have a trip to The Kennel and Gonzaga next weekend, and I think they are ripe for the picking.

Notre Dame – I thought Notre Dame could pick up where they left off last season thanks to the individual growth and brilliance of Demetrius Jackson (he’s been good, 18.3/4.2/4.5). I think I was wrong. Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton left behind a lot more than an offensive void, they left behind a massive leadership gap that it doesn’t appear Jackson, Auguste and Vasturia are quite ready to fill. This team still has the potential to regroup and be a top four ACC team, but I think they might be trending more towards a bubble-type season and left battling with Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville to stay comfortably in the top half of the conference.

They lost to Monmouth and Alabama this week. That’s a LONG way from respectability. They have a lot of regrouping to do before conference play begins. They have a trip to Illinois this week. They are the better team, but I need to see it in action before I’m back on board with the Irish.

Indiana Hoosiers – Ok, ok, ok. To misappropriate a Steven Covey maxim, let’s end with the beginning in mind. Yes. I alluded to this Hoosiers team being a Final Four sleeper a mere week ago. That was, um, misguided.   One thing I hope you’ll like about our relationship here is that I’ll happily admit when I am wrong.

This team STILL has Final Four talent. However, the blending and assimilating of these individual pieces is currently horrible. I am not sure if Troy Williams and James Blackmon are too concerned about their NBA stock. I’m not sure if Yogi Ferrell has a little too much Russell Westbrook-instincts to keep the bevy of talent happy. I’m not sure they even LIKE playing together.

If you watched them over in Maui, it was like a collection of James Harden defensive vines on merciless loop. They allowed straight-line drives with indifference (including the game winner for Wake Forest). They launched ill-advised shots with impunity, rarely making an extra pass (or a pass). And frankly, they played selfish, disinterested basketball. It was gross. If I sound like a jilted lover, let me assure you I have no vested interest in IU hoops. I was just taken aback by how late 1990’s this team played. It was a malapropism of a bunch of Iversons and Marburys running around the court in the era of the Golden State Warriors. It was just bad, outdated basketball.

The telling sequence for me was with about three minutes to go, after three or four absolute forced bricks from the whole cast of characters; Troy Williams is standing at the top of the key about three feet behind the arc. He is CLAPPING and SHOUTING for the basketball to be passed to him. He finally gets the pass, which arrived about two feet below the “shot pocket” (google some old Steve Nash passes for a better understanding of delivering the ball in the “shot pocket”) and caught it near his calves. He takes it from this position and immediately hoists a wildly errant three point shot. No one covers the backside of the court to retreat in transition and Wake gets an easy bucket on the other end.

That isn’t a talent issue. That’s a style/selfish/effort/basketball intelligence issue.

This team has a LONG way to go. It is still possible, but it is going to take some big changes in Bloomington.

OK, enjoy a great week of hoops. Some other teams that have impressed and are worth keeping an eye on are Syracuse, Texas A&M, West Virginia and LA Tech, who has a real nice opportunity against Memphis tomorrow night.

I’m a little wary of early RPI darlings like Southern Illinois, UTEP, and Louisville who have played NO ONE, and I’m still wait and see on powers like Kentucky and North Carolina until their point guards are safe and sound.

Have a great week – and be sure to stop back midweek for a pair of picks as the ACC/Big Ten challenge ramps up!