Rams -6

I look for the Rams to return from their bye week with an easy win and cover at home against the Browns as a 6-point favorite in Week 7. St Louis has shown signs of turning the corner since adding in rookie Todd Gurley to the lineup. They went on the road and defeated the Cardinals 24-22 as a 7-point underdog in Week 4. While they lost at Green Bay 10-24 the following week as a 9-point dog, they should have covered the number. The Rams had numerous possessions late in that game inside Packers territory and came away with no points, including two Nick Foles interceptions inside the 10-yard line. The most telling stat was the fact that St Louis outgained Green Bay 334-322 and had a 17-14 edge in first downs. 

Gurley was a big part in their success against two of the NFC’s elite teams in the Cardinals and Packers. He had 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona and 159 yards on 30 attempts against Green Bay. He’s averaging 104.7 ypg (would be a lot more if you didn’t count the 6 carries he had in his first start back against the Steelers when he wasn’t really part of the offense) and a league-best 5.7 yards/carry among eligible running backs. Gurley’s emergence is going to force opposing teams to stack the box, which should open up things for Foles in the passing game. 

This couldn’t be a better matchup for Gurley and the Rams, as the Browns come into this contest allowing a league-worst 149.8 ypg on the ground. Last week, Cleveland gave up 152 yards on 33 attempts (4.6 yards/carry) on the ground to a Denver team that came into that contest averaging just 72.0 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. Gurley should be even more familiar with the offense coming off the bye and it’s not out of the question he rushes for more than 200 yards. 

On the flip side of this, I look for St Louis defense to have no problem here shutting down a Browns offense that can’t run the football (91.8 ypg, 25th). Cleveland’s Josh McCown has had some nice games throwing the ball, but they have come against the likes of the Raiders, Chargers and Ravens. He only had 213 yards on 20 of 39 passing last week against the Broncos and his struggles had to do with Denver’s ability to put a ton of pressure on him. The Rams have one of the most talented defensive lines in the league and will be able to feast on McCown with Cleveland consistently playing behind the chains. 

I think the Rams are going to be one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, as long as Gurley and Foles stay healthy. The running game is going to provide the balance the offense has been lacking and will keep their defense fresh, allowing them to apply constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Browns on the other hand are headed no where and I could see them coming out flat off that crushing home loss to the Broncos. Take St. Louis!

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.