Minnesota Vikings -2.5

I believe we are getting some great value here with the Minnesota Vikings laying less than a field goal (-2.5) at home against the Detroit Lions. I believe this is a major overreaction to what took place on Monday Night Football, with Minnesota getting embarrassed 20-3 by the San Francisco 49ers. While Detroit also lost their opener, they were at least competitive in a 28-33 defeat at San Diego and at one point led 21-3. 

The public was all over Minnesota in their game and have quickly turned their backs on the Vikings, as I’m showing close to 63% of the early action coming in on the Lions. I believe the public looks down on Minnesota’s loss more because of how bad the 49ers were suppose to be. While I was one of those that didn’t think San Francisco would be any good, that’s clearly a much better team than expected. I was much more impressed with the 49ers than I was the Chargers. 

I still think Minnesota is one of the up and coming teams in 2015 and will be a strong team to back on their home field, especially if they keep getting undervalued like we see here. Keep in mind that the Vikings won 4 of their last 5 at home in 2014, with the only loss being a 21-24 defeat to Green Bay. Detroit’s a quality team, but I don’t think that defense will be near as good without Suh. There’s also not a great road team. They were 4-4 on the road compared to 7-1 at home last year. 

Speaking of the Lions defense, they allowed Philip Rivers to complete 35 of 42 attempts for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also giving up 95 yards on the ground. I look for Teddy Bridgewater to bounce back in a big way against this soft secondary, while also getting Adrian Peterson more involved (only 10 carries in Week 1). 

Clearly the weakness of the Vikings stop unit is their run defense, which doesn’t come as a big surprise. Last year the Vikings ranked 25th against the run (121.4 ypg) and 7th against the pass (223.2 ypg). Detroit has a pass-happy offense to say the least. They went up against a poor San Diego run defense last week (ranked 26th vs run in 2014) and only attempted 16 carries. The Lions are going to play right into the strength of the Vikings. 

I know the Vikings have 1 less day of rest/preparation due to playing on Monday Night Football, but that’s not a concern for me. Minnesota is very familiar with what the Lions are going to try and do both offensively and defensively. I also don’t think losing a day is as big early in the year, as players are fresh and have not experienced the grind of a season. 

I would argue the situation is harder on Detroit with having to play back-to-back road games. Either way the Lions have a history of not playing up to expectations on the road. With the loss to the Chargers, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. They also haven’t been good off high-scoring games. San Diego is just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-33 ATS in their last 51 road games after playing in a game with 50 or more combined points. Give me the home team laying less than a field goal in this NFC North showdown! 

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.