Big Ten Pick of the Week

Illinois (+10) at North Carolina – Noon on ESPN2

The offseason wasn’t much fun in Champaign. Illinois dealt with allegations of mistreatment and investigations into coaching staff conduct before eventually dismissing head coach Tim Beckman and naming Bill Cubit the interim coach. Expectations were low and excitement was nowhere to be found. However, the Illini have rallied and stomped their first two opponents by a combined score of 96-3. Kent State and Western Illinois won’t be mistaken for good teams but still, manhandling two opponents that soundly shouldn’t be ignored. Through two weeks, the defense has given up 3 points and a total of 386 yards. They’ve jumped on both of their opponents early and coasted to easy victories. Prior to the season, I suggested that there was some value to be found in this program that appeared to be in such turmoil. I’m not suggesting they are suddenly B1G West contenders because of their victories over two weak opponents but I continue to think Illinois is much better than this double-digit line would have you believe. The defense has generated a better pass rush than expected and the secondary appears to be very good. On Saturday, they suffocated the passing game of the Western Illinois Leathernecks, holding them to only 1.8 yards per attempt. Taylor Barton has starred with three interceptions but the entire defense has really excelled.

On offense, Wes Lunt leads the way at quarterback. When he’s healthy (as he currently is), Lunt is a very talented passer that can spread the ball around. He’s accurate and has a big arm. Despite missing his top target Mike Dudek to injury, Lunt has found success by getting the ball to Geronimo Allison (8 catches for 124 yards last week) and all-purpose back Josh Ferguson. I have concerns about the offensive line’s ability to adequately run block but they’ve done a nice job of pass blocking. Thus far, Wes Lunt has yet to be sacked and he’s rarely even been under pressure. Through two weeks, Illinois is doing all the “little things” right. They are 100% in red zone scoring opportunities, they haven’t allowed a sack of their starting quarterback and they are converting on third down. Illinois will be undoubtedly facing a step up in competition and it will be impossible for them to continue producing at this level against major opponents. On Saturday, they travel to Chapel Hill to take on the 1-1 North Carolina Tar Heels in their stiffest test of the non-conference season. The Tar Heels hammered North Carolina A&T last Saturday and fell in their opener, 17-13 to the South Carolina Gamecocks. Marquise Williams leads the way at quarterback and his dual-threat ability will be a real challenge for Illinois. His top receiver is 6’5” Bug Howard but I like the size in Illinois’ secondary and Williams has proven to be prone to mistakes. I think the Illini will force a few turnovers from Williams that will make it difficult for the Tar Heels to pull away. Losing to South Carolina on a neutral field isn’t terrible but there are real questions about the Gamecocks and I don’t think North Carolina has done anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite against a red-hot Illinois squad that has a ton of confidence at the moment.

I expect the Illini to keep this close and have a real chance at pulling off the upset, take Illinois +10.

Upset Alert

South Florida (+7) at Maryland – Noon on ESPNU

Putting the Terps on “upset alert” worked so well last week that I’m doing it again! I actually like most of the favorites in the conference this week and I already chose an underdog for my “pick of the week” but when pushed to choose a favorite in the B1G to fall, I’ll take Maryland. The Terrapins were blasted by Bowling Green in the second half of Saturday’s contest in College Park, giving up 42 points over the final 30 minutes and eventually falling by 21. In truth, the game wasn’t even that close. Bowling Green racked up 692 yards of offense, held the ball for nearly 16 more minutes than Maryland and had 35 first downs to the Terrapins 16. Time and time again, the Maryland secondary was picked apart in single coverage by Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson. The South Florida Bulls don’t have Matt Johnson and their offense is nowhere near the caliber of the Bowling Green offense but they battled the reigning ACC champs pretty tough before eventually falling 34-14 to Florida State. Dalvin Cook was the big difference, rushing for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. That run defense is a concern but Maryland doesn’t have a player anywhere near the caliber of Dalvin Cook and their running attack has sputtered thus far. In addition, the Terps are switching quarterbacks, benching Perry Hills and going to Caleb Rowe. In general, the offense was woeful and playcaller Mike Locksley doesn’t appear to know how to best utilize the offensive talent at his disposal.

I think South Florida’s defense is capable of keeping Maryland’s offense under 28 points and I like the ability of running back Marlon Mack and receiver D’Ernest Johnson. If quarterback Quinton Flowers can minimize his mistakes and just take advantage of the holes in the Maryland secondary, I think the Bulls can keep this thing close. Oh, one more thing, don’t kick the ball to William Likely! Maryland didn’t heed my warnings last week and they now desperately need a victory to keep the wheels from completely falling off. I think they win a close one but I don’t think they should be favored by a touchdown over any decent team right now, take the Bulls +7.

Trending Up/Trending Down

As I wrote earlier, it’s unwise to jump to conclusions after only a few weeks of college football and trends aren’t really going to develop until we have a larger sample of data to look at. However, here are a couple of things worth looking at in Week 3. 

Trending Up – Michigan’s Defense – The Wolverines defense was good enough in week one to earn a win against Utah. Unfortunately, the UM offense didn’t hold up their end of the bargain and Michigan fell. Last Saturday, the Oregon State Beavers put together a very nice 78-yard touchdown drive to open the game and it looked like Michigan might have their hands full in Jim Harbaugh’s home debut. However, the Beavers managed only 60 more yards and were shutout over the course of the rest of the game. In fact, over the final three quarters, Michigan’s defense surrendered only two yards! Chris Wormley looks like an All-B1G player and has registered three tackles for loss in each of the first two contests, placing him second nationally in that category. Jabril Peppers is beginning to showcase why people were so excited about him as a stud recruit and new defensive coordinator DJ Durkin is clearly dialed in to this team’s strengths. Add in a ball-control offense that is going to want to shrink games and limit plays and I can see a whole lot of low totals in Michigan games this season.

Trending Down – Minnesota Offense – I love Jerry Kill’s Gophers and I have a lot of respect for the Minnesota program. Their defense is really good, particularly the secondary, and I still have faith in Minnesota’s ability to go over their preseason win total of 6. However, the injuries are really starting to pile up and there are real questions about the Gophers offense. Left guard Jon Christensen isn’t going to play against Kent State. Wide receivers KJ Maye, Isaiah Gentry and Jeff Jones are all injured. Tight ends Brandon Lingen, Lincoln Plsek and Duke Anyanwu are also hurt. Jerry Kill and his staff have done a nice job of building up the talent in Minneapolis but there’s only so many injuries you can take, particularly when those injuries are clustered within a couple of position groups, before you really begin to have a downturn in production. I think the Gophers are reaching that point at wide receiver and tight end. Minnesota takes on a terrible Kent State squad this Saturday and hosts Ohio on September 26. Pay attention to the totals in those games because a very good Gopher defense combined with a wounded offense could result in some real defensive battles and wins for you if you take the “under”.