Week 2

Week 1 started off well, going 3-1. I like the card this week, and hopefully we can keep the momentum going. This week, I covered a lot of the games below as well as a bunch of others on the podcast, so I won’t be going as in depth with the analysis below for the sake of being repetitive. Be sure to check out the podcast. As always, you can ask questions below or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513.

Bowling Green State +7.5 @ Maryland

I watched all of the Bowling Green game last week, and saw enough that I liked that it gets me to buy on BGSU in this spot. The Falcons had a great deal of success moving the ball and scoring against a Tennessee defense that is way more talented than the Terrapin defense they’ll see on Saturday. A major cause for concern here is the Falcon defense, who got shredded by Tennessee, clearly showing that the group is a work in progress. There is a little silver lining in the 59 points allowed for BGSU, as they allowed over 200 return yards to UT, which they were able to convert into short scoring drives. Maryland is just not far enough away from BGSU in a talent perspective for me to consider they should be laying more than a touchdown to a BGSU team that will always have the backdoor open. If BGSU can find a way to tighten up the defense and improve on their kick coverage, I like them to stay within the number.

UMass +13 @ Colorado

Back in the summer, UMass was a team I really liked coming into this year. With 19 returning starters, a very good QB in Blake Frohnapfel, and a poor record, I knew their would be good value on the Minutemen early on. In this game, we get to back a UMass team that lost to Colorado at home last year by 3, 41-38. Colorado is coming off an unsuccessful trip out to Hawaii, and now has UMass at home before playing a rivalry game against Colorado State next week. UMass should have success offensively scoring on Colorado, but the question mark is how much they’ll be able to slow down the Buffs offense. With UMass, in a worst case scenario the backdoor should be open. I truly think the Minutemen will be in this game with a chance to win straight up late.

FIU +7.5 @ Indiana

We’re back on the FIU train! Sometimes the Golden Panthers are just the gift that keeps on giving. After beating UCF as a double digit dog last week, we now get over a touchdown against an extremely average Indiana team? Sign me up. My only concern here has to be a possible letdown from FIU, but I’m going to go the other way with that idea. I think FIU finally got that signature win last week they have been desperately looking for, and should carry that momentum into Bloomington. The Hoosiers were fortunate to sneak out a win against FCS Southern Illinois 49-48 in their opener. FIU should win this game straight up, and it may be the last time we have significant value on the Golden Panthers, so let’s enjoy it while we can.

Middle Tennessee @ Alabama U 56.5

Alabama looked awfully good against Wisconsin last week, being able to dictate what they wanted to do in the run game and execute the play action pass. In this game, I think we’re going to see a pretty conservative offensive attack from the Tide, given they have a massive game looming next week against Ol Miss. We know how good the Rebels are defensively, and I can’t see Saban giving them anything more to work with in preparation next week. I’m expecting a vanilla rushing attack from Bama, because frankly they don’t need to do anything else against MTSU. I think MTSU is going to have a really difficult time scoring in double figures in this one, and with the big game looming next week for Bama, I don’t expect them to open up the offense either.