Stat Summary: Ohio State 42, Virginia Tech 24

Ohio State jumped to a 14-0 first quarter lead Monday Night in its season opener versus Virginia Tech. At the time…it looked like a rout was at hand for the unanimous #1 team in the nation. The Hokies would rally for a stunning 17-14 halftime lead thanks to two Buckeyes turnovers and some big plays on offense. But, Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Brewer was knocked out of battle early in the second half with a cracked collarbone. That was basically the ball game in terms of the straight up winner. The second half would turn into a slaughter.

Inexperienced Tech backup quarterback Brenden Motley had little chance to be competitive against a big time opponent. Chances for a home underdog cover dimmed through the night as Motley was ill-equipped to play catch up. Here are the final numbers…

Ohio State 42, Virginia Tech 24

Total Yards: Ohio State 572, Virginia Tech 320

Yards-Per-Play: Ohio State 10.2, Virginia Tech 4.6

Rushing Yards: Ohio State 360, Virginia Tech 128

Passing Stats: Ohio State 10-19-1-212, Virginia Tech 15-25-1-192

Third Downs: Ohio State 33%, Virginia Tech 47%

Turnovers: Ohio State 3, Virginia Tech 2

OSU was dominant at a tough site despite the three giveaways and a poor night on third down conversions. Their big play dynamism is so omnipresent that they didn’t even seem to care about little things like protecting the ball and moving the chains! Brewer’s injury felt like a back-breaker at the time. But, Tech was unlikely to score an upset even with Brewer as long as the Buckeyes were registering around 10 yards-per-play. That rate stunningly held firm through the full evening.

It’s obviously too early to say that Ohio State is a certified lock to play in the Final Four.

But, they aren’t currently scheduled to play a ranked opponent until late November. Let’s assume for argument’s sake that OSU gets upset somewhere along the way. Could an 11-1 Buckeyes team be denied a Final Four berth given how big their numbers are going to be in their victories? How many injuries to playmakers would it take for this offense to no longer outclass this season’s remaining opponents? Are four or five other college powers likely to run the table in a way that would keep an 11-1 or 12-1 version of the Buckeyes out of the brackets? Might as well write OSU down in pencil now.

Let’s wrap up this stat review with a quick peak back at our handicapping summary from the preview…

“The current “expected score” is 32.5 to 20.5 for Ohio State based the market price. Juggernaut Ohio State would fly past that 32.5 easily based on the 59, 42, and 42 they scored against Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon to finish the season. Can they hit juggernaut mode at this awkward site given their suspensions and potential hangover? That’s the question handicappers must answer. One approach would be to start out with skepticism, but react on the fly with Ohio State in the second half if the offense is clicking. Note that the Buckeyes won their second halves by scores of 21-0, 22-14, and 21-10 in their season ending Wiscy/Bama/Oregon sequence.”

The offense was clicking in the first half with 267 yards and 9.9 yards-per-play, though it wasn’t showing up as dramatically on the scoreboard. One of the two first half giveaways was on a muffed punt return rather than an offensive miscue. OSU would win Monday’s second half 28-7…continuing that recent tendency since Cardale Jones took over at quarterback.

Back with you late this week for a stat preview of the much anticipated Oregon/Michigan State showdown. That will be followed up early next week by a postgame stat summary.  

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.