Showcase Stat Preview: #1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech

Almost exactly a year to the day since Virginia Tech’s stunning 35-21 upset of Ohio State last season, the Hokies and Buckeyes will battle Labor Day night as OSU begins defense of its national championship.

Tech’s 2014 upset was arguably one of the biggest red herring results of all time!

Ohio State would go undefeated the rest of the way, finishing with statistical postseason blowouts of Wisconsin (558-258 in total yardage), Alabama (537-407), and Oregon (538-465). All as underdogs! Virginia Tech would lose five of its next seven games en route to a disappointing 7-6 campaign.

Let’s quickly review last year’s box score…

Virginia Tech 35, Ohio State 21

[box] Total Yards: Virginia Tech 324, Ohio State 327

Yards-Per-Play: Virginia Tech 4.2, Ohio State 4.7

Rushing Yards: Virginia Tech 125, Ohio State 108

Rush Percentage: Virginia Tech 53%, Ohio State 58%

Passing Stats: Virginia Tech 23-36-2-199, Ohio State 9-29-3-219

Third Downs: Virginia Tech 53%, Ohio State 25%

Turnovers: Virginia Tech 3, Ohio State 3[/box]

Those aren’t the stats of a blowout…except for the big differences in passing accuracy and third down conversions. J. T. Barrett of Ohio State was still adjusting to his starting role after replacing the injured Braxton Miller. This was his first home start, and it was coming against a dangerous defense. He was clearly overwhelmed given that 9-29-3 passing line, with his final pick being returned for a Hokies touchdown. (It’s amazing how far Ohio State progressed from this disappointing result to their late season dominance of teams much better than Tech.)

Tech quarterback Michael Brewer had stretches where observers were thinking “Virginia Tech could be great now that they finally have a passing quarterback!” But, he would suffer miscues of his own…initiating a trend of inconsistency that would dog him and the offense the rest of the season.

On the whole, last year’s meeting was a yardage toss-up where the visitor made better use of their yards by moving the chains to sustain drives…before capping things off with a defensive TD that padded their victory margin.

 

Last Season’s Team Tendencies

Since Monday’s return engagement is the season opener for both teams…we don’t have any 2015 numbers to work with for building a stat preview. We’ll be showcasing a high profile college game each week through the season on these pages from a statistical perspective. Let’s do the best we can to paint a picture for this coming Monday night based on last season’s team tendencies. As we get deeper into 2015, the weekly big game previews will only be emphasizing current season stats.

Earlier this summer we talked about profiling offenses based on the percentage of time they ran the ball. We’ll start there…

• Ohio State was a “smash mouth” team, rushing the ball 60% of the time

• Virginia Tech was “balanced,” sitting right at 50% for rushing percentage

Success generally trends toward smash mouth because rushing the ball comes with a lower risk than passing…and because teams with big second half leads will run clock with the ground game. Virginia Tech didn’t get to sit on many leads last season.

It’s very important, though, that you don’t think of Ohio State as a team that “won” with the run in 2014. When passing, Ohio State had a knack for making very big plays even though they only threw 40% of the time. Look at these massive differences in the air…

• Ohio State averaged 9.1 yards-per-pass-attempt, with 42 TD’s and 12 interceptions

• Virginia Tech averaged 6.2 yards-per-pass attempt, with 19 TD’s and 15 interceptions

Even though OSU only passed 40% of the time, they ranked #7 nationally in yards-per-pass attempt and put up very big numbers. Even though Virginia Tech was “balanced,” their passing offense ranked a horrific #105 in yards-per-attempt with a TD/INT ratio that’s very poor for the modern college game.

That’s why the Buckeyes are a double-digit road favorite Monday! But, offseason news developments regarding the passing game are also why the betting line has dropped from Ohio State -14 earlier this summer to -12 as we speak. It could be very difficult for OSU to have a big night in the air given that Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson, and Corey Smith have all been suspended for the Virginia Tech game. They were #’s 3-4-5 in receiving yards last season! (#1 Devin Smith is now in the NFL)

 

Is there an obvious bet to be made at the current prices? Well, that’s VERY difficult to state with confidence in a season opener. Analysts are flying blind in terms of 2015 preparation and the impact of any new wrinkles that may be attempted. Impact estimates for the Ohio State suspensions have been factored into the line.

The case for Ohio State -11.5: once the Buckeyes found themselves and became a juggernaut…even other elite teams in the sport couldn’t do anything to stop them. If you’re 130 yards better than a great Alabama team…and 73 yards better than a great Oregon team…a relative mediocrity like Virginia Tech is out of its depth even if a few Buckeyes are out with suspensions. Versatile and deep Ohio State controls its own destiny in that sense. OSU was 10-5 against the spread last season. They were 9-4 ATS, 69% after getting slapped in the face by the Hokies. The market may still not be giving the Buckeyes the credit they deserve.

The case for Virginia Tech +11.5: It’s mostly a lot of little things. They return a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. Their home crowd has been known to intimidate many an opponent (particularly in nationally televised night games). Ohio State could easily come out overconfident after spending the summer celebrating a championship and reading press clippings about how they’ll be even better this season. Maybe Ohio State’s temporarily shorthanded receiving corps (which now includes former QB Braxton Miller) will be so sluggish that the Buckeyes have to try to win a low scoring grinder.

The current “expected score” is 32.5 to 20.5 for Ohio State based the market price. Juggernaut Ohio State would fly past that 32.5 easily based on the 59, 42, and 42 they scored against Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon to finish the season. Can they hit juggernaut mode at this awkward site given their suspensions and potential hangover? That’s the question handicappers must answer. One approach would be to start out with skepticism, but react on the fly with Ohio State in the second half if the offense is clicking. Note that the Buckeyes won their second halves by scores of 21-0, 22-14, and 21-10 in their season ending Wiscy/Bama/Oregon sequence.

We’ll check back on Tuesday with key stats from the game…and a summary of misleading final scores from the first full weekend of 2015 college football action. Next week’s preview will focus on #7 Oregon at #5 Michigan State.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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