2015 Big Ten Football Picks – Week # 1

Each week I’ll be sifting through the 2015 Big Ten football schedule looking for a “Pick of the Week” and an “Upset Special.” I’ll also be giving you my thoughts on which teams are trending upward and which ones are trending down. 

 

Pick of the Week

Penn State (-6.5) at Temple – Saturday, September 5 at 3:30

The over/under in this opening week contest is only 38 points so if you love defensive battles, this is your game! The Temple Owls improved drastically last season, jumping from 2-10 to 6-6 and climbing the defensive rankings by more than 90 spots. The Owls ended up with a Top 25 defense and there is reason for excitement in Philadelphia as all 11 defensive starters return along with the starting quarterback and some acceptable offensive weapons.

Temple is expecting to challenge for the AAC title in 2015 and a win over the flagship program of the Keystone State would be a marquee win for third-year head coach Matt Rhule. However, I’m rolling with the slight favorites in this one, the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Like Temple, Penn State is expected to be anchored by a tremendous defense. Four of the top six linemen, 75% of the linebackers and 75% of the secondary return from a unit that ranked in the top 10 in pretty much every meaningful statistic. Anthony Zettel is one of the best defensive linemen in the country and he’s joined by a strong group of tackles and what should be a terrific secondary.

Temple is going to find it very difficult to consistently move the ball against Penn State as the Owls lost their top wide receiver in Jalen Fitzpatrick. The remaining receivers averaged a woeful 4.8 yards per target and this offense averaged only 10.5 points per game over the final four games of the 2014 season. The Owls will also be breaking in a new left tackle so protecting quarterback P.J. Walker from the ferocious PSU defensive line could be an issue.

The largest issue for Penn State this season is likely to be the offensive line. The unit struggled mightily to protect Christian Hackenberg last year and it hampered the offense throughout the 2014 campaign. That particular weakness shouldn’t be exploited too heavily by Temple though. The Owls were just 50^th in adjusted sack rate last season and had only one player with more than 3.5 sacks. This Temple defense is a bend but don’t break unit, not an aggressive unit that looks to constantly attack the opposing offensive line with pressure.  

In addition to that encouraging stat, I really like the returning talent at wide receiver for Penn State and I think the Nittany Lions passing game is ready to take a step forward in 2015. I’m betting on players like DaeSean Hamilton, Geno Lewis and Chris Godwin to make a few explosive plays and I don’t really see how the Owls can generate more than a couple of touchdowns against this stout Penn State defense.

In my opinion, these two teams are built with very similar strengths. Both teams have strong defenses and suspect offenses. However, we don’t have to go back very far to see the difference in talent and personnel that exists between these in-state rivals. On November 15 of 2014, Penn State silenced the Owls by a score of 30-13. In my opinion, the Nittany Lions will have a similar defense to the unit Temple struggled against last season and a superior offense than the one that put up 30 on the Owls.

I know the game is in Philadelphia this time around but Penn State’s fans travel very well and I don’t expect the venue to play a major role in the contest. Temple struggled down the stretch in 2014, winning only two games after October 11^th. I expect those struggles to continue this Saturday and my “Pick of the Week” is Penn State at -6.5.

 

 

Upset Alert

BYU at Nebraska (-7) – Saturday, September 5 at 3:30

New head coach Mike Riley opens his tenure as the man in charge of Nebraska football with an extremely tricky game against the BYU Cougars. BYU probably won’t end up with a great record because their schedule is brutal (trips to Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan to go with games against Boise State, Cincinnati and Missouri) but make no mistake, this is a dangerous football team that will challenge the Huskers.

The danger begins with star quarterback Taysom Hill who returns from a broken leg that cost him the final eight games of the 2014 regular season. Prior to his injury, BYU was averaging 38 points a game and had wins over Texas, UConn, Virginia and Houston. In addition to his return, four experienced offensive linemen also return to help lead the offense.

On defense, BYU brings back every contributing defensive lineman save for one backup nose tackle from a unit that ranked in the Top 25 against the run in 2014. The pass defense was a weakness and it figures to be once again, so Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong will be expected to exploit the secondary. However, this will be his first game in a new offensive system and he’ll be working without his top target from 2014 and without game-changing RB Ameer Abdullah.

The Huskers are favored by seven but I think BYU has a really good shot to leave Lincoln with a “W”. Nebraska is on “Upset Alert”.

 

ATS Underdog Alert

Michigan State (-18) at Western Michigan – Friday, September 4 at 7:00

Let me make this clear, I am not picking Western Michigan to beat Michigan State. However, I do think the Broncos stand a good chance to make this competitive and I think they will cover the 18 point spread. Historically, at least a couple of B1G teams struggle with MAC teams within the first couple of weeks of the season. Add in that Michigan State is travelling to Kalamazoo to play at night in what will be a raucous stadium and I think the ingredients are in place for PJ Fleck’s Broncos to keep this close for a while.

Michigan State returns Connor Cook and they have plenty of talent but this will be their first game without long-time DC Pat Narduzzi and without running back Keith Langford and wide receiver Tony Lippett. In addition, they have to replace defensive stars Marcus Rush, Kurtis Drummond and Trae Waynes.

The Broncos have recruited circles around the rest of the MAC and they are primed to take the MAC West crown in 2015. Quarterback Zach Terrell returns along with top running back Jarvion Franklin and every contributing wide receiver. On defense, the majority of the two-deep returns and some talented former 3-star sophomores are ready to mix in and add depth.

Michigan State should win this game and I expect them to finish this season somewhere in or near the Top 10. However, I think there are enough things in place to keep them from covering this rather large spread of 18 points on opening night at Western Michigan. PJ Fleck has everyone in Kalamazoo excited about “rowing the boat” and I think they’ll play an exciting game on Friday night.