Week 1

College football is finally here. It’s always a great feeling being able to write the first article of the year. For those of you that are new, welcome. In my weekly article, I focus on the non-Power 5 conferences, particularly the MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, and American. I also post my plays in the more marquee games on Twitter @smithers513. Without further adieu, let’s get to it.

FIU +17 @ UCF

If you read any of my articles last year, it was pretty easy to spot my love affair with Florida International. The Golden Panthers were a money train last year, going 7-4-1 against the number last year. This year, FIU has a strong returning cast of 15 starters, and is the most talented team coach Ron Turner has had. The Panthers are a team that was profitable last year not because they are a great team (4-8 last year), but rather they are just priced much worse than they truly are. FIU was a dog in 11 of their 12 games last year, and their only game as a favorite was over Bethune-Cookman.

One of the reasons FIU is a solid team to back at this price against UCF is their style of play. FIU is going to have a strong defense this season, returning 8 starters from a team that had a defining role in creating turnovers for FIU, leading to a +11 turnover margin. Ron Turner loves to blitz, and in doing so his defense creates a good deal of opportunities for generating turnovers. The offense could be stagnant at times, but Alex McGough was a true frosh playing QB last year, and he has a strong trio of RB’s back, along with his top wideout.

George O’Leary’s UCF squad is only returning 9 starters this season, the fewest mark in the AAC. But with UCF’s talent level, they are always a threat to win the division. UCF should be strong on the lines of scrimmage, but I think it could take this offense time to gel. You won’t find me making a case that FIU is as talented as UCF, because they’re not. However, getting 17 points from a UCF team that still has to establish an offensive identity against a solid defense is too steep of a number to resist. When you also toss in the fact that this a chance for an FIU team to showcase that they can compete against the best non-Power 5 team in talent rich Florida, and the motivation couldn’t be higher for the Golden Panthers. UCF also has a big trip to Stanford in week 2, so who knows how focused the Knights may be for this one.

Charlotte +6.5 @ Georgia State

Note* Keep an eye on this one, because I would love to get +7 if the opportunity presents itself.

I don’t know what other reason in the world Georgia State is hosting Charlotte at 3:30 on a Friday afternoon other than giving bettors a chance to wet their whistle before the long weekend. That’s neither here nor there, as Charlotte is catching nearly a full touchdown against a Georgia State team that has not won an FBS game in two years. Don’t full yourself, neither of these teams is a worthy FBS opponent, so if you’re expecting a well played game, this ain’t for you.

Charlotte is making the jump to the FBS in it’s first year in C-USA. The 49ers are a mediocre FBS team, going 5-6 each of the last two years. What is working in the 49ers favor is their experience, returning 17 starters in coach Brad Lambert’s third year. As we’ve seen, programs typically make a jump in their third year, and although I don’t think the 49ers are going to have much success in their debut season, this is realistically one of two (maybe 3) games on the 49ers schedule they have a chance of winning.

Georgia State is a similar to Charlotte in that they are also returning 17 starters under Coach Trent Miles, also coaching his third season at the school. This is a Panthers team that allowed an opponent to score more than 40 points seven times last season. This game currently has the highest total on the board, and for good reason. I am not expecting much defense to be played in this one at all, and I will gladly take nearly a touchdown in a game that’s going to feature plenty of possessions, and the team holding the ball last a very good chance to win.

UNLV @ Northern Illinois OVER 62.5

I looked at UNLV as the side for this game, and the more I pieced things together the more apparent the Over became. These two teams met last year, and saw a game that saw over 1,100 yards of total offense. I am not anticipating much of a change from last year, with NIU returning a junior QB in Drew Hare, who had the best sophomore season of any quarterback at NIU, which is impressive given their string of success. The Huskies shouldn’t have much issue scoring the ball against a UNLV defense that gave up at least 30 points in 11 of their 12 of their 13 games last season. The Rebels are only returning 5 starters, but sometimes that isn’t all bad news considering how poor the defense was last season.

On the other matchup of the game, UNLV returns a good core from an offense that was fairly productive last season, led by Senior QB Blake Decker, who threw for over 2,800 yards. Decker gets back three experienced RB’s and his top receiver. Head coach Tony Sanchez is making the jump to the NCAA ranks from the highly decorated Bishop Gorman High School in Vegas. I think the Rebels are going to be much improved, sooner rather than later. NIU’s defense is returning 8 starters, but gave up points against the better offenses they faced last season. This game was tied at 34 early in the 4th quarter last year. I’m expecting a similar pace and offensive efficiency, and this game should be played in the 30’s at minimum.

UTSA @ Arizona -31

You won’t catch me laying over 30 points often in a season, but when a line presents value I have to take it. UTSA is going from the most experienced team in the country to one of the worst. UTSA’s season was disappointing last season, going 4-8. There’s not a whole lot to be excited about for the Roadrunners this year, although the conference schedule is favorable. But, I don’t think you’ll find Arizona feeling sorry for UTSA under any circumstances, as the Roadrunners gave Arizona a near scare last year, losing 26-23.

The Roadrunners are losing nearly every main contributor on offense outside of a couple skill players that had minimal production last season. I think they’ll struggle to hit the 10 point mark against an Arizona defense that is going to be much more talented. Arizona is getting Anu Solomon back, who had a strong true freshman season for the Wildcats last season. This is a game I think will be wrapped up by the start of the 4th quarter, and given the amount of production UTSA has to replace on offense, I am not worried about the backdoor cover. Swallow the points.