Drama Delayed? #1 Ohio State, #2 TCU Both Have Easy Schedules

Drama Delayed? #1 Ohio State, #2 TCU Both Have Easy Schedules

The Associated Press 2015 College Football Preseason Poll was released on August 23. Sitting in the top two spots are defending National Champion Ohio State and a loaded TCU team that obliterated Ole Miss in a bowl last season after getting snubbed for the Final Four.

If you were hoping for a lot of drama at the top of the poll through the coming season, you may be out of luck. Neither Ohio State nor TCU will face an opponent that’s listed in the Preseason rankings until November 21! We’ve been waiting all summer for college football to get here. We have to wait another three months before Ohio State and TCU face any real danger from a top opponent.

Ohio State will only face currently unranked teams until they host #5 Michigan State in their eleventh of 12 regular season games. And, that will be the ONLY currently ranked team the Buckeyes battle pending their projected appearance in the Big 10 Championship game (likely opponent Wisconsin is currently #20).

TCU avoids ranked opposition until Games 11 and 12 against #19 Oklahoma and #4 Baylor respectively. Those teams play in the Big 12, which doesn’t have a conference championship game.

Now…this is college football. Anything can happen! It’s certainly possible that Ohio State or TCU will suffer from complacency or overconfidence and get shocked along the way. And, obviously, they may run into some teams who aren’t ranked now…but will be ranked at kickoff. Still, the projected pathways are much easier for the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs than teams in the deep SEC and Pac 12.

In fact, there are six teams from the SEC and Pac 12 who will all have to face at least FIVE currently ranked opponents. That not only sets up potential losses…but creates a gauntlet that could wear players down through a long grind (an important element for handicappers to remember as we get deeper into the season). Neither Ohio State nor TCU are likely to be seriously threatened by attrition given their schedules. Any of the following engines could run out of gas…

Toughest Challenges

Alabama: 7 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 8 if they win SEC West)

USC: 6 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 7 if they win Pac 12 South)

Arkansas: 6 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 7 if they win SEC West)

Auburn: 5 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 6 if they win SEC West)

Stanford: 5 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 6 if they win Pac 12 North)

Tennessee: 5 opponents from Preseason Top 25 (and 6 if they win SEC West)

The following eight teams will play 4 opponents who are currently ranked (listed in alphabetical order): Arizona, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, LSU, Mississippi, Notre Dame, Oregon, UCLA.

Three of the Power Five conferences have it pretty easy this year. And, there’s one team from the Mountain West that earned a spot in the Top 25 (ranked opponents in parenthesis)…

Big 10: Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (1), Michigan State (2)

Big 12: TCU (2), Baylor (2), Oklahoma (3)

ACC: Florida State (2), Clemson (3)

Mountain West: Boise State (0)

The only team we’ve left out so far is #24 Missouri…who’s managed to simultaneously be in the SEC while not having a brutal schedule based on the early rankings (3 matchups…with Georgia, Arkansas, and Tennessee).

The following developments jump to mind…

Not only do #1 Ohio State and #2 TCU get to coast compared to everyone else, but #4 Baylor and #5 Michigan State will also be in great shape to crash the Final Four if they score league upsets over the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs…or even if they win all their other games and lose marquee thrillers. How will current #4 Baylor’s resume look if they go 11-1 and almost take out TCU? That’s going to matter if the survivors of the SEC and Pac 12 lose a couple times apiece. How do you keep current #5 Michigan State out of the Final Four if they go 11-1 and their only loss was a nailbiter to OSU? The schedule dynamics we’re discussing today may have already locked most of the championship chase narrative into place unless there are some truly big shockers.

Get ready to watch a lot of Alabama and USC on TV! The marquee TV games for most of the first 10 weeks are going to involve teams from the SEC and Pac 12. In fact, the most compelling storylines this season will involve the races in the SEC West and Pac 12 South based on the rankings. Way too many major conference division “races” are just the one game where the top two contenders meet. The SECW and P12S will have REAL races.

Notre Dame will stay in the mix if they find success vs. Georgia Tech, Clemson and USC on alternate weekends from mid-September to mid-October. The Irish contingent will be lobbying for Final Four consideration if they keep winning. But it’s going to be very tough to crash the party from the outside given the soft schedules on tap for the current rankings powers. How can you leapfrog teams who are winning 63-20 every week as they bide their time until late November?

We’re planning to expand our stat coverage this season here at The Saturday Edge. Back in 2014 we had one article a week that summarized key boxscore developments. This season…we’ll post a big-game stat preview late each week…followed early the next week by a comprehensive stat review. Because I didn’t want to wait until around Thanksgiving to talk about defending champion Ohio State (!), I’ll lead with their Monday Night season opener at Virginia Tech. Here’s the tentative schedule for September’s showcase previews…

Week One: #1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech

Week Two: #7 Oregon at #5 Michigan State

Week Three: #17 Ole Miss at #3 Alabama

Week Four: #8 USC at #15 Arizona State

One season hands off to the next as the defending champs begin their quest to repeat. Then we’ll try to pick out the best weekly game in the rankings from that point forward.

The fun begins late next week. See you then!

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.