The Saturday Edge 2015 College Football Podcast – SEC Preview
Here is The Saturday Edge’s 2015 College Football handicapping podcast covering the SEC. SabertStxVii, Pezgordo and GoSooners discuss the teams from each division, who are the likely favorites and who will surprise and disappoint.
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3 thoughts on “The Saturday Edge 2015 College Football Podcast – SEC Preview”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Good podcast. Listen to me guys – you don’t know about Arkansas. You heard it here first – 10 wins, not 7/8 as you guys alluded to. Why? What you didn’t mention and don’t know; Arkansas has by far the best overall depth along the DLine since Bielema has been there – BY FAR – this is by his own admission; and the best overall DL from an 8 man rotation standpoint in school history. No drop off overall from last year which actually wasn’t as good overall as this year, it just had the two stars in Flowers and Philon. You just don’t know most the names of these other guys yet. Beasts all to a man; maybe no superstars but no drop off either and can rotate for the full game and wear teams down. The secondary is more experienced and better than last year. LBs are solid if not spectacular, just cannot afford a lot of injuries. The point is Arkansas’ defense will largely pick up where they left of, not start over, from last year.
On offense, Brandon Allen has been a model of consistency in practices this year. In spring game, in one half of work: 17 of 21, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. In final fall camp scrimmage: 17 of 22, 4 TDs, 1 INT. OL is opening huge, gaping holes for RBs in spring/fall camp. Hatcher has made plays everywhere and Henry and Sprinkle will be used in double TE set often and cause nightmare matchups – both are big and can catch the ball. The best OL in college football overall. Alex Collins is in the best shape of his life; a 5 star HS guy who loses *no* speed off the cut. JW’s injury vaults him into the Fournette, Chubb category because he will get more touches and thus more opportunities to work his magic in the 2nd level. AC absent injury runs for 1500+ this season.
Hogs will beat Miss. St. (a shell of last year’s team) at home, a questionable Ole Miss team they destroyed last year, aTm in sweet revenge, LSU again (a team they blanked that still has huge QB questions), all four of the OOC games without any question, Tennessee on the road is tough but UA is better under center & Vols are a year away – Arkansas is not. AU and Bama are the two losses & they might even sneak up on one of them.
As long as Brandon Allen stays healthy and no rash of injuries in the backfield and at LB, Arkansas wins 10 games this year – you heard it here first and you can hold me to that.
Jeff
Jeff – great comment and thanks for posting and listening.
I have no doubt that Arkansas deserved all the hype they are getting, and I also have no doubt that they are capable of winning 10+ games.
I think one of the issues I was alluding too was the fact that they aren’t going to be like Mizzou has been the previous few years and sneak up on anyone. Teams know how good they are and will be expecting it.
I still need to look into how teams do ATS after facing a BERT team. Would be very interesting. I’m going to look into that now.
What are some of the bigger issues or question marks with Arky now? Anything particular you are looking for early in the season?
Saber – honestly my questions are mostly what is alluded to in above post: QB, LBs, RBs – the issue in each is thin depth. I’ll say it right now, if Brandon Allen goes down to injury or is hobbled and therefore only performing at 70-80%, Arkansas immediately becomes a 7 win team; maybe even 6. His brother Austin is a good kid, but doesn’t have the talent, upside, or most importantly, maturity/poise and respect of the team as Brandon does. Peevey is very talented by all accounts, but has taken zero snaps in SEC play. So keeping Brandon healthy is key no. 1. THankfully this OL will do a good job of that. One other thing most don’t realize about BA – he is faster than you think. Not Marcus Mariota fast, but definitely fast enough to elude rushers when the pocket breaks down and get to sticks and down or out of bounds without taking a hit. You will see him pick up first downs with his feet a lot this year.
LBs is the second major area of concern simply because of depth. The position group is solidly in the middle or perhaps a bit better in terms of LB units – maybe the 5th/6th best in the conference; but there is some drop off in talent and significant drop off in game experience between 1st and 2nd/3rd string. Brooks Ellis is a fine player; probably will make an NFL roster. But Hogs cannot afford long term injuries to more than one or two LBs or their run defense will suffer. With the first team and the deep DL, Arkansas will be very stout in the box and hard to run on. You will see more games like LSU and Ole Miss last year where Arkansas blanks teams or holds them to single digits.
Secondary is significantly improved – picked up from end of last year and has progressed, by all accounts. BERT has mentioned, particularly, cover corner play is much improved. This has to lead to more INTs and fewer big plays given up than Arkansas allowed particularly in the 1st half of last year.
The other area of concern obviously is RB now that Jonathan Williams is out for season. Alex Collins is going to have a monster year now so long as he doesn’t get hurt. He is in tremendous physical condition, I will tell you that. He also has elite top end speed once he gets to 2nd level, but he’s hard to bring down at the LOS because a) he’s very strong and b) he can cut on a dime with no loss of speed and leave defenders holding their proverbial jock straps. Kody Walker and Rawleigh Williams are fine, serviceable backs (tho Williams is a frosh, he has earned fall camp praise of coaches) and will provide a good 1-2 punch that CBB will utilize, but AC is an elite caliber back – a 2nd/3rd round NFL talent kind of guy. He just needs to stay healthy.
In terms of ATS, I don’t know how much value you will find on the Hogs due to all the preseason love and pub. We’ll see. I was hoping the UTEP line would have been under 31 but it isn’t – again due to preseason attention I am sure. I think it *will* be interesting to see how teams do after they play the Razorbacks because they will all be physical contests. Anyway, these are my thoughts. Good luck and the season can’t get here soon enough! 🙂