Rush to Judgment: Common Sense Handicapping for the Running Game

One of the best starting points for handicapping an individual college football game, or for generally understanding a team’s approach to winning, is to look at how often they run the ball. In college football, there are a handful of teams who rush as much as 80% of the time. On the other end of the spectrum, there were 15 teams last season who rushed 43% of the time or less.

Big difference!

For the purposes of today’s article, it will be helpful for you to check out last year’s rush percentages as posted by teamranking.com. Keep it open in a separate window just in case you want to look up your personal teams of interest as we discuss general principles.

I’m going to break college football into five hunks we can use for handicapping analysis.

 

CLASSIC OPTION OFFENSES: 75% and up

College teams that run variations of the classic option offense will rush the ball on upwards of 75% of their plays. In fact…Navy, Air Force, Army, Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, and New Mexico were all at 77% or higher last year. Note that nobody BUT those six teams even made it to 71%. Programs you may think of as classic “smash mouth” offenses aren’t as run-heavy as these teams (they’re coming next). The most run-heavy teams in the country are the six option attacks.

Handicapping tips: Obviously it’s smart to invest in these teams at value prices vs. opponents who have trouble stopping the run. They can also be great bets vs. inexperienced defenses who have never dealt with an option opponent (particularly as big dogs vs. overrated power conference teams). On the other hand, option offenses are in HUGE trouble vs. athletic defenses who are good at stopping the run…or who have seen the option from a different opponent earlier in the season (or last year). It’s much easier to deal with Air Force if you played Navy a few weeks ago. A team can get away with being one-dimensional if most of their opponents can’t stop that one dimension.

 

SMASH MOUTH: 60-70% rushing plays

You may be thinking that a lot of college teams would fall into this category. The SEC is known for smash mouth football. Every conference seems to have an old-school coach who wants his offense to push opponents around. Actually…only 15 additional teams beyond the option schools fell into this 60-70% range. That means, out of 128 teams measured by teamrankings.com, only 21 rushed the ball 60% of the time or more. (Note that the SEC was well-represented in this cluster, with LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all registering at 60% or higher. Ohio State of the Big 10…led by former SEC head coach Urban Meyer is here at 60.36 percent. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska are in this group as well.)

Handicapping tips: The same principles apply here. Though “experience” vs. smash mouth isn’t as big a deal as experience vs. the option. Run-heavy offenses will bully poor tackling defenses (or undersized defenses, or short-handed defenses), running clock on the way to grinder-style victories. They are in trouble though vs. elite defenses…as you often see when physical SEC offenses who lack a dynamic quarterback run into the toughest SEC defenses.

 

 

SHADED TOWARD THE RUN: 54-59%

We move further down the ladder here. But it’s telling about how much passing has taken over the sport that we’re still only about 50-55 teams into the national sampling. If you’ve been a longtime college football fan going back decades, it’s amazing to think that less than half the sport rushes the ball 54% or more of the time these days. Powers like Oregon, Alabama, Michigan State, as well as TV regulars Oklahoma, Stanford, UCLA, Boise State, Michigan, and Missouri are included in this cluster. You could probably argue that this is the “sweet spot” where most of the country is aiming. If you recruit top quarterbacks…you want to use their arms! But, you also want to control clock and keep the risk/reward element in check.

Handicapping tips: These are the offenses you want to invest in against any vulnerable defense…or at value prices virtually any time. Their diversity allows them to exploit any opposing weakness that presents itself. Obviously there’s more to handicapping a game than just rush percentage. But…knowing that an offense is likely to have a big day is powerful information. If that team also has a strong defense…then you can take them as a team side. If that team is constantly playing shootouts because they have a weak defense…then you can think about the Over. Make an effort to know ALL of the offenses that are both productive and versatile.

 

“BALANCED” NEAR 50/50: 47-53%

This is a large classification…because many teams either try to be balanced…or are forced to cut back on their running because they fall behind so often. Among the elite teams in this group are Baylor, TCU, Clemson, USC, and Notre Dame. Any sort of “high octane” offense that doesn’t bully people with power lands here…as well as many “low octane” mediocrities.

Handicapping tips: Very tricky because this big hunk includes superpowers and money burners. My best advice is to bring turnover potential into the mix. Teams who can sustain something near 50/50 while not turning the ball over have a chance to make a run at the Final Four. They will light up the scoreboard on a regular basis (as Baylor and TCU did last year). But, those who fall prey to interceptions or fumbles on sacks because of the high pass count are gambles at the very best. Dumb bets at the very worst.

 

PASS HEAVY: 46% or fewer

Generally speaking…these are teams coming from a position of weakness. Either the head coach has decided to use a pass-heavy offense as a recruiting lure because he can’t compete in a tough conference otherwise…or the teams are just so bad that they have to pass all the time while playing from behind. Only Florida State shows up as a true power from last year in this range. And all that passing led to a bunch of turnovers and WAY too many nailbiter wins as big favorites. The Big 12 looms large as a major conference influence. Texas Tech and Iowa State show up, as do Texas A&M (formerly of the Big 12), East Carolina (head coach was an assistant at Texas Tech), and Washington State (head coach used to run the Texas Tech program). 

Handicapping tips: Beware of ulcer causers! You can at least consider these teams as underdogs vs. opponents who are poor against the pass (or as favorites in September cupcake spots at home against dregs). But it’s very difficult to trust them otherwise. They should generally be faded as favorites vs. anyone who knows what they’re doing. Teams this pass-heavy are prone to high turnover counts, and high injury counts at the quarterback position because they take so many hits.

I hope you’ll play around with these themes in your own 2015 handicapping if you haven’t been doing so already. Knowing preferred coaching styles and offensive dimensionality is vital when trying to make smart college football bets.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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