Predicting the 2015 Big 12 football programs –especially the top-tier teams– seems pretty straight forward at first glance.

While the battle for Big 12 spremacy is expected to be comprised of a “three-headed race,” I’m peaking beyond the conventional outlier of the components and searching for some hidden value, as we attempt to sort out those who belong, and those that appear fraudulent.

 

The Contenders

Texas Christian Horned Frogs

2014 Record: 12-1

2014 ATS Record: 11-2

2014 O/U Record: 8-5

Players to Watch: QB Trevone Boykin, WR Josh Doctson

It’d be a sin to not unwind the Big 12 coil without dropping a TCU reference, as head coach Gary Patterson took a damsel in distress-type team in 2013 and inverted his club into one of the most electrifying a season ago.

Led by dynamic quarterback Trevone Boykin, the Horned Frogs return potentially the most efficient bunch in the nation as a whole, and when you compile the pieces, they’re a complete core. Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee round out a balanced group of wideouts (1,771 yards, 15 TD receptions combined), while tailbacks Aaron Green (129-922-9) and B.J. Catalon 98-493-10 in 8 games before injury) both return. 

In conversing over e-mail with Horned Frogs beat writer Carlos Mendez earlier in the spring, he believes TCU cannot only conquer the conference, but pose as a viable candidate to win the National Championship.

“TCU should have a lot of on-field qualifications,” stated Mendez. “A difference-maker at quarterback (Trevone Boykin), a play-making receiver (Josh Doctson), speed and power at running back (Aaron Green), a pass-rushing defensive end (Terrell Lathon), a run-stopping tackle (Davion Pierson) and reliable kicking (Jaden Oberkrom), plus a head coach in Gary Patterson who is one of the most respected in the nation when it comes to preparing with multiple weeks.”

The Horned Frogs seem to be gelling with a high-society head coach and a Heisman caliber quarterback, and ‘OVERS’ may be a common theme, as the Big 12 offenses look primed to flaunt throughout.

Projected Win Total (5Dimes): 10 (over -145/under +105)

Prediction: None

Key Trends: Gary Patterson/TCU is 9-0 ATS his last nine contests following a bye week, averaging 46.7 points per (Week 9 vs West Virginia)

 

Baylor Bears

2014 Record: 11-2

2014 ATS Record: 7-5-1

2014 O/U Record: 8-5

Players to Watch: QB Seth Russell, DL Shawn Oakman

I’ll vie for a quarterback with minimal experience complemented by regular playmakers over a fresh face under center with zero targets any day of the week, and for Art Briles and Baylor, they appear poised to win the Big 12 and hopefully earn a berth to the Playoff.

Seth Russell should emerge as the Bears’ starter for 2015, and with a versatile quarterback comes a plethora of good news for Baylor’s offense. Jay Lee, Corey Coleman and K.D. Cannon could all very well attain the 60-catch, 700-yard, 8-touchdown clip in 2015. They’re that dynamic of a bunch.

Add the pieces of 2014’s outstanding offensive line, a nasty defensive line anchored by Shawn Oakman, and Baylor returns one of the most experienced teams in the conference.

This has the makings to be the year for Baylor, and a group that I’m certainly high on, considering they’ll supply the tenacity on defense to counter opposing offenses.

Projected Win Total (5dimes): 10 (over -130/under -110)

Prediction: Over 10 (-130)

Confidence: 8/10

Key Trends: Art Briles/Baylor is 4-0 over the total and 4-0 to the team total over when playing on Friday nights (Week 1 vs SMU, Week 13 @ TCU)

 

Oklahoma Sooners

2014 Record: 8-5

2014 ATS Record: 5-8

2014 O/U Record: 9-4

Players to Watch: RB Samaje Perine, DB Zack Sanchez

While Texas Christian and Baylor head the glamour and glitz of the bunch, you’d seemingly have to throw the Sooners in the mixture.

The quarterback situation looks extremely promising with Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield and/or last years starter Trevor Knight barking signals in 2015, and that’s all in front of standout running back Samaje Perine, who’s a nice candidate for a sleeper Heisman.

Defensively the Sooners will hope for a better outcome versus the pass in 2015, as they surrendered over 275 yards through the air per contest in ’14. Zack Sanchez heads a secondary that will be constantly dealing with the pressure of uptempo offenses and opposition looking to top 75-80 plays (Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, etc.)

Projected Win Total: 8 (over -140/under +110)

Prediction: Under 8 (+110)

Confidence: 6/10

Key Trends: Bob Stoops/Oklahoma has held the last seven mid-major opponents to just 10 ppg (team total is 6-1 to the UNDER) [Week 1 vs Akron, Week 3 vs Tulsa]

 

A Logjam in the Middle

While you can bookmark the contenders and pretenders, I’m also paving a gap to slip in some clubs that may not be viable for the Playoff (the Big 12 didn’t even send a team last year), but could surprise the country, whether it’s positively or negatively.

 

Texas Tech Red Raiders

2014 Record: 4-8

2014 ATS Record: 6-6

2014 O/U Record: 6-6

Players to Watch: WR Dylan Cantrell, CB J.J. Gaines

Quarterback duels. Everywhere. Except in Lubbock, it’s a spark of optimism, as Kliff Kingsbury holds the option to start either Davis Webb or Patrick Mahomes.

In a recent personal Q&A with Webb, he preached the capability of the skill players in what should be a fun year for the offense once more.

“We have many young receivers like Ian Sadler, Dylan Cantrell, Reggie Davis, Cam Batson, and many 2015 Wr’s that have signed expected to come in and compete,” said the Red Raider quarterback. “So I am excited to watch them make plays.”

Whomever wins the starting job will need to saddle up and deliver, as the defense was abysmal in 2014, surrendering 31 points or more in all but a pair of contests (versus Kansas, UTEP).

Texas Tech could possibly make the push with such teams as Texas, Kansas State and West Virginia shorhanded for the time being, and they’ll renovate some areas necessary to compete in the Big 12 (WR/DB), hence my adequate praise.

Projected Win Total: 5 (over -135/under -105)

Prediction: Over 5 (over -135)

Confidence: 8/10

Key Trends: Since Kingsbury took over in 2013, Texas Tech on the road, in conference, is allowing 40.6 points per game on defense (opponent’s team total is 6-2 OVER) [@ Kansas, @ Oklahoma, @ West Va, @ Texas]

 

Iowa State Cyclones

2014 Record: 2-10

2014 ATS Record: 4-7-1

2014 O/U Record: 5-7

Players to Watch: QB S.B. Richardson, WR D’Vario Montgomery

Let’s not get head over heels over the Cyclones just yet, as the program hasn’t hit relevancy since (still searching Wikipedia) well, it’s been a while.

Just a 2-10 clip in 2014, Iowa State may use the “can’t beat ’em, join ’em” motto as a centerpiece in order to vanquish a couple of conference foes in 2015. Quenton Bundrage and D’Vario Montgomery head a sneaky good receiving corps.

It won’t be a Cinderella fairytale, but the ‘Clones could be a great ‘OVER’ team for the upcoming expedition. While they don’t carry the success as other programs, they could be better off in 2015 against the conference (straight up and against the spread) with their improved offensive guys primarily healthy.

Projected Win Total: 3 (over -135/under +105)

Prediction: Over 3 (-135)

Confidence: 7/10

Key Trends: Since Paul Rhoads took over for Iowa State in 2008, opponents team total is 7-1 OVER when the Cyclones play the second of back-to-back road games (36.7 ppg) [Week 13 @ West Va]

 

Oklahoma State Cowboys

2014 Record: 7-6

2014 ATS Record: 6-7

2014 O/U Record: 7-6

Players to Watch: QB Mason Rudolph, WR David Glidden

It was premature to start leaping onto the Pokes bandwagon in ’14 as they began scorching hot with five wins in the initial six; the gauntlet caught up as Okie State dropped contests to TCU, Texas, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas State.

With QB Daxx Garman packing his bags and venturing off to Maryland, the scheme has been handed to Mason Rudolph in hopes of at least bowling in the latter months of the season.

I know I’m preaching to the choir but the offense appears well-suited–it’s up to the defense.

Projected Win Total: 7 (over -165/under +125)

Prediction: Over 7 (-165)

Confidence: 6/10

Key Trends: Mike Gundy/Oklahoma State are on a 16-3 to the OVER versus non-conference opponents since 2011 (72.7 ppg combined) [Week 1 @ CMU, Week 3 vs UTSA]

 

Not Ready for Primetime – The Pretenders

Kansas State Wildcats

2014 Record: 9-4

2014 ATS Record: 8-5

2014 O/U Record: 8-5

College football junkies won’t care to glance at quarterback Jake Waters and what he brought to the K-State table, given the conference is chocked full of gunslingers.

Under Bill Snyder, Waters served as a genuine game manager, coupled with pocket presence and minimal mistakes. The ‘Cats lose both he and Tyler Lockett, two important pieces to the puzzle.

I don’t want to belittle a Bill Snyder squad, but they’ll have to show me they can score–even with a pretty solid defensive unit.

Projected Win Total: 7 (over -135/under -105)

Prediction: Under 7 (-105)

Confidence: 8/10

 

Kansas Jayhawks

2014 Record: 3-9

2014 ATS Record: 5-7

2014 O/U Record: 4-8

The nausea began to swirl around Big 12 media days earlier this week, when fresh head coach David Beaty strutted to the podium to exchange chitchat with the media.

Not exactly sure how a new coach poised to win a lone game in 2015 is exactly suppose to answer questions, but as you would expect, all pleasantry was pointed toward the future.

This team is that bad, with just three returning starters on offense.

Projected Win Total: 1.5 (over -110/under -110)

Prediction: Under 1.5 (-110)

Confidence: 9/10

 

West Virginia Mountaineers

2014 Record: 7-6

2014 ATS Record: 7-6

2014 O/U Record: 4-9

West Virginia wasted no time evolving into a prototypical high-octane offense amidst the Big 12. Unfortunately, they’ll be without its 1-2 punch in QB Clint Trickett and WR Kevin White for 2015.

Dana Holgorsen’s been nabbed as an offensive connoisseur, but the defense holds the upper hand here in my opinion with an influx of defensive backs returning to halt the pass–they performed somewhat decent in 2014 even against all the offenses hellbent on high tempo.

K.J. Dillon and Nick Kwiatkoski head an extremely athletic unit for 2015, so don’t be surprised if West Virginia perhaps progresses on defensive numbers while it soaks its feet to seek a groove on the opposite end early in the year.

While I love the scheme and build of the Big 12, the Mountaineers could be one of those five-win teams, or potentially sneak into the top four within the conference.

 

Projected Win Total: 7 (over +105/under -135)

Prediction: Under 7 (-135)

Confidence: 6/10

 

Texas Longhorns

2014 Record: 6-7

2014 ATS Record: 7-6

2014 O/U: 4-9

I’ve watched the mediocrity at the quarterback slot for too long and I’m not sure it’ll be much better in 2015. Tyrone Swoopes appeared frantic and uncomfortable in most situations last year,  as he’ll likely be handed the ‘game manager’ title in 2015. He’s a raw-talent kind of guy, but Texas hasn’t built around him. A mere 6.3 yards per attempt in 2014, the Longhorns are in dire need of a playmaking pass catcher for this fall.

The flash of the mid-2000’s with guys like Michael Huff, Vince Young and such has now gone for naught, as Texas players out of the Lonestar State now have the option of joining programs on the rise in Baylor, TCU and Texas A&M. The recruiting trail becomes that much harder and I’ll sell the Longhorns for 2015 as well.

Projected Win Total: 6 (over -150/under +120)

Prediction: Under 6 (+120)

Confidence: 8/10

Key Trends: Since 2010, Texas head coach Charlie Strong is 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog (Wk 5 @ Baylor, Wk 14 @ TCU).

---