We’ve somewhat latched onto a nice groove with college football win totals, and upon fulfilling the SEC East & SEC West in its entirety, we ventured up north last week to weigh in on the Big Ten East. 

With a handful of clubs neighboring in the West, we round out our projections for the monsters of the midway with our respected selections  of either over, or under the given total of wins.

 

Illinois 4.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

2014 Record: 6-7

Players to Watch: QB Wes Lunt, RB Josh Ferguson, DB Eaton Spence

Numbers that sink as low as the Fighting Illini’s for 2015 first and foremost nudge me in the direction of the schedule, in which it’s significantly easier to pinpoint potential victories right off the get-go.

They open up as 16 point favorites versus MAC opponent Kent State week 1, and assuming they slip by the Leathernecks of Western Illinois, the remaining agenda becomes a sensitive asset to determine the over or under.

Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio State all grasp the advantage, which leaves Middle Tennessee and Northwestern to duel the Illini in Champaign, along with a so-called clash of the ‘bottom feeders’ at Purdue.

The offense appears well-built with Wes Lunt under center and a dynamic athlete in Josh Ferguson at tailback. The senior running back has displayed a great deal of versatility and has brilliant elusiveness, and I should mention he’s twice the threat as a pass catcher, which will only assist Lunt.

However, the Illini will be down one receiver as sophomore Mike Dudek suffered a torn ACL during spring practices, and this could pose a problem for Chief Illiniwek, as the Naperville, Illinois product was targeted 39 times on third down in 2014.

The defense encompassed its share of disasters a season ago primarily against the rush, and as a representative of the Big 10, halting the ground game peaks atop the priority list–they just couldn’t execute in 2014.

They’ll return with Eaton Spence and V’angelo Bentley in the secondary along with Clayton Fejedelem, but they have yet to develop into a rigid core. Perhaps notching a few season of experience will bode well, but I’m not entirely ready to buy in.

Following a six-win season, Vegas may be expecting (more of) a decline for the blue and orange, but even I can’t grab the under here, as I side with the athleticism at the skill position. I don’t believe Illinois surprises any Big 10 squads, but I do believe they snag the five games they should win.

Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini Over 4.5 Wins  

 

Iowa 7.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

2014 Record: 7-6

Players to Watch: QB C.J. Beathard, DE Drew Ott

A ton of pointers to discuss and here’s the initial: Iowa’s number at seven and a half doesn’t necessarily stick out quite like some of the previous we have covered. Kirk Ferentz traditionally logjams the Hawkeyes at a respectable slot amidst the Big 10 and I don’t see much difference for 2015.

Upon transferring to Michigan, Jake Ruddock will not be the starter that many believed months ago. Instead. C.J. Beathard expects to grab the reins as the signal-caller, and while he’s titled a four-star recruit out of high school, he’s yet to really soak his feet as a regular, as he participated in some mop up duties in 2014.

As for the line, tell me you haven’t heard this before: they’ll be well-stocked and hoard some experience. It’s Iowa. Led by Austin Blythe and Jordan Walsh, Beathard may be granted some much-needed protection, but will hope for a pair of assets: a reliable running back and some dynamics on the hashmarks. 

Iowa fell smack dab in the middle of offensive efficiency last year. 

The defensive line will be led by senior Drew Ott while the secondary supplies a natural playmaker in Jordan Lomas at free safety. Perhaps the 7th-ranked pass defense from a year ago can keep the Hawkeyes in some tight games for 2015.

The non-conference schedule features North Texas, Illinois State, Pitt and the annual rivalry against Iowa State.

I can’t necessarily side with an over or under here. I don’t expect them to shatter any barriers, however I do expect them to perform much better–even without Jake Ruddock.

Pick: No Play

 

Minnesota (Over 6 -120/Under -110)

2014 Record: 8-5

Players to Watch: WR KJ Maye, CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun

Minnesota and Iowa eerily hold similar expectations in my opinion. They also mimic each other in numerous aspects, such as a stout defense and perhaps some question marks on offense with the loss of some efficient playmakers from a year ago.

The Gophers pocketed a superb rushing attack with RB David Cobb, and QB Mitch Leidner and tight end Maxx Williams built a nice tandem to complement the passing game. But with both departed, it opens up the realm for another playmaker, and I really like wide receiver K.J. Maye to step up in 2015. 

The secondary appears to be in excellent shape with a nasty duo of corners in Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Eric Murray, both potential NFLers. And that’s without mentioning dual seniors at safety with Damarius Travis and Antonio Johnson. The secondary could be primed for yet another tremendous season versus the pass, which should come in handy when Minnesota measures up with Trevone Boykin, Ohio State’s QB triumvirate and Tommy Armstrong.

While those trio of games could culminate with losses, I expect Minny to slide by Ohio, Illinois, Purdue and Colorado State, which leaves contests with Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa deeming question marks.

I understand Cobb’s role will be missed at tailback but I can’t speak enough about the defense and the fact that the Gophers return with Leidner and Maye. This team may perform better than what it appears on paper.

Pick: Minnesota Golden Gophers Over 6 Wins (-120)

 

Nebraska 8 (Over -140/Under +110)

2014 Record: 9-4

Players to Watch: QB Tommy Armstrong, WR De’Mornay Pierson-El, DB Byerson Cockrell

Here’s one team I’m high on for 2015.

In a conference with Hackenberg, Cook and Miller, don’t let Tommy Armstrong fall under your radar for 2015. Losing RB Ameer Abdullah may allow defenses to blanket the passing game a tad more as Nebraska will have a tough task of replacing the All-American, but the receiving corps supplies shades of excellence throughout.

Jordan Westerkamp returns as the most experienced and can be used in the middle of the field along via the home run ball, as does sophomore De’Mornay Pierson-El, the speedy playmaker that will also shine amid the return game for 2015.

With ample underclassmen on the defense–and a new coach at the helm–I don’t see why Nebraska can’t vie for a chance at the B1G championship with the talent.

Juice, juice, more juice.

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers Over 8 (-140)

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Northwestern 6 (Over -125/Under +105)

2014 Record: 5-7

Players to Watch: QB Clayton Thosar, RB Justin Jackson

Another story regarding a controversy at the quarterback position, go figure. What was once a three-headed race may be finalized with the entrance of Clayton Thosar, a freshman from Wheaton, Illinois.

Appearing smooth and poised, Thosar passed the eye test throughout the Spring Game, but no previous action leaves us searching for clues. Perhaps RB Justin Jackson can build off of his stellar season following 1,187 yards and 10 scores in 2014.

The Wildcats never got the production from USC transfer Kyle Prater at wide receiver, and are still waiting on Christian Jones to recover from a four-month injury. I’m not sure if Northwestern’s offense will be much productibe than it was last year, unless Thosar follows suit with the whole “freshman quarterback game breaker” heroics. 

Stanford, at Duke, at Michigan, at Nebraska, at Wisconsin? I’m passing on Northwestern to succeed in 2015, even though I really like what Pat Fitzgerald’s done with the program. 

Pick: Northwestern Wildcats Under 6 Wins(+105)

 

Purdue 4 (Over -145/Under +100)

2014 Record: 3-9

Players to Watch: G Jordan Roos, WR DeAngelo Yancey

If anyone has the nerve to look me straight in the eyes with confidence (and without a chuckle) and tell me Purdue can amass 4 Ws for 2015, I’ll respect you until I’m buried six feet under (I wonder if he’s going over or under?).

What’s slightly disheartening to admit is that Purdue, a few seasons ago, wasn’t all too shabby to watch on Saturday’s. Their defense was as mediocre as they come, but they possessed some speed and could put up some hefty digits.

Now they’re scrambling around in search for a quarterback after last year’s starter Danny Etling transferred, so I’m wondering how this offenses finds a groove to at least give a hand to RB Akeem Hunt. What’s crazy is that both Northwestern and Purdue bring back the majority of its starters, and I don’t like anything about them. 

They have tough non-conference match ups with Marshall and Bowling Green, both capable of ousting the Boilermakers, on top of Va Tech and ten the Big 10 slate.

No thanks, Purdue. Square, but still can’t find an edge on the over.

Pick: Purdue Boilermakers Under 4 (+100)

 

Wisconsin 9.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

2014 Record: 11-3

Players to Watch: RB Corey Clement, DB Michael Caputo

Initially opening up at 10, the double-digits put me into more of a pickle than the entire public gawking at such a high number.

The inaugural finding would be, “wow, Wisconsin will be really good in 2015, huh?”

Then you glance at their match-ups and think, “wow, Wisconsin should have a really good record in 2015.”

Because outside of Alabama, the well runs dry with competition, as the Badgers schedule breezes by the likes of Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State.

Perhaps Paul Chryst was granted immunity by the committee as a first-year coach, who knows. All I know is that the Badgers didn’t need to replace Jared Abbrederis following 2013, as they had no problem giving the B1G a dose of Melvin Gordon. Wisco may be better off with running back Corey Clement than most perceive, however. 

A loss to Alabama and perhaps upended in Lincoln and Wisco needs to wipe out the likes of Iowa, Minny, and a plethora of mid-majors. Now that the number’s been sunk to reachable lengths, I’ll grab the value side with Wisconsin as they could easily run their B1G schedule en rout to a 11-1 season.

Pick: Wisconsin Badgers Over 9.5 Wins (-105)

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