College Football Win Totals – Auburn Tigers
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16 thoughts on “College Football Win Totals – Auburn Tigers”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I believe the Clemson game out of the gate will be huge for you getting over the 7.5 win total. Lose that game and Auburn will have to work very hard and probably need a couple breaks to get to 8 wins. Keep in mind that Auburn’s losses to the SEC elite teams last year weren’t just losses, they were for the most part bad losses. 24 points to Arkansas, 35 to LSU, 38 points to Georgia and 28 points to Bama. That’s a lot of ground to make up in one season, so I’m not sure I would give them a 55% chance of beating Arkansas and a 50% chance of beating Georgia. What Auburn will need to do is win the games that are definitely winnable, and not have any bumps in the road. Losing to Clemson would be a pretty big bump because they have to turn right around and play at Miss. St. the next week..
On the positive side, Auburn pulled off two wins last year in which they were the dogs (Florida & South Carolina). If they can do the same this year they should be in good shape. It’s also good that they are playing 7 home games with an inexperienced QB. But I don’t think we can take any of their away games for granted. Right now I agree with Pezgordo, I think they go over 7.5 wins. But I think it’s going to be a tight fit. What makes this a gamble is we still don’t know for sure how good of a coach Gene Chizik really is. These are the kinds of seasons that will really test a coach. Do they go sideways from the 7 regular season wins they had last year, or do they improve? Chizik is very high on this year’s team. Now let’s see if he can earn his salary.
GS, I actually had a paragraph that talked about Auburn getting blown out in their 5 losses last season, but decided not to use it. Here is the paragraph:
On the other hand Auburn was not competitive in their 5 losses last season, but 4 of those were on the road and they did manage to beat a very good South Carolina team in Columbia.
That is definitely a lot of ground to make up. However, they get Arkansas and Georgia at home this year and Auburn has only lost 2 games in the past 3 years at home vs teams where they have a higher 4 year composite recruiting ranking than their opponent.
The only 2 teams on the schedule who have more talent then Auburn are LSU & Bama. Experience is a different story and that is where I figure they will trip up in one, maybe two of the other games. Certainly Georgia will be a tough game.
They also have a pretty easy (by SEC standards) away schedule, getting Miss St, Vandy and Ole Miss, three very winnable games.
I’m thinking they go 8-4 w/ losses to LSU, Georgia, Bama and they get “upset” somewhere (Clemson, Miss State, Arkansas?), though technically they are dogs against Clemson and will probably be short favs or dogs against Miss St & Arky too, so I guess those wouldn’t exactly qualify as upsets.
50% chance of beating Georgia. O’Rly? Auburn has only beaten Georgia once in the last six years and that’s because they had a generational player in Cam Newton and Nick Fairley was allowed to take cheap shots on Aaron Murray for a minimum of 15 seconds after he released the ball on multiple occasions with no repercussions from the refs.
Georgia could have beaten Auburn by 50 last year if they wanted to but decided not to run up the score after halftime. Auburn will be improved this year but they won’t take a huge step forward on either side of the ball and won’t be able to play with the big boys of the SEC this year.
I would put their win %’s against LSU and Bama at around 2% and their win percentage against Arky and Georgia at around 10%.
Also, home field advantage in the Georgia/Auburn series doesn’t mean that much. Georgia is 6-3-1 in the last 10 games played at Auburn.
Well it doesn’t appear as though my 50% win probability against UGA is being received well. HA! I figured UGA will be about a 3 point favorite in that game, which is a 57% win probability when converted to a ML.
I adjusted downwards because of home field advantage despite Georgia being 6-3-1 in the last 10 games played at Jordan-Hare.
Even at 55% to 60%, I still consider that a “toss up,” especially on the road.
Last years score has little, if anything to do with this year. Auburn beat South Carolina, South Carolina beat UGA, UGA beat Auburn. That kind of thing happens every year in college football.
Boise State had very little trouble with UGA last year, I doubt the results (or the point spread) would be anywhere near what they were last season. Heck, ASU destroyed USC last year. The Trojans are this season’s early odds on favorite to win the MNC, the Devils will be lucky to stay out of the PAC 12 cellar.
A 10% win percentage is unrealistic. That converts to about a 17 point spread. No way Georgia or Arkansas will be 17 point favorites at Auburn.
Arkansas is overrated and the loss of Petrino, one of the best in game coaches in the SEC, is going to be felt in the W/L column.
I do project Auburn to go 8-4 w/ the most likely losses being to LSU, Alabama and UGA. However, LSU and Alabama are the only two teams on Auburn’s schedule who have a better 4-year composite recruiting rating than the Tigers. That tells me from a talent perspective, no one else on the Auburn schedule has a much better than 50% win probability over War Eagle.
Are you really expecting Auburn to take a gigantic step from last year simply by replacing two coordinators? Especially when one of their coordinators they are replacing was one of the reasons they won a National Championship (he molded the Auburn offense to fit Cam during the Championship run).
While last years score might have little to do with last year, I think the trend of Georgia winning 5 of the last 6 in the series (with Auburn’s lone win coming with a generational player) swings the favor more than in Georgia’s favor. Especially when Georgia returns superior talent to Auburn (there are very few positions where I would take an Auburn guy over a Georgia guy if you go down their line-up).
Kevin, I am expecting an improved Auburn, mainly based on them being more experienced. However I would hardly call going from 7-5 (2011) to 8-4 (my 2012 projection) a gigantic step.
Even Malzahn couldn’t overcome last years inexperience on offense, so I don’t think there should be much, if any drop off w/ Loeffler.
You’re a Georgia guy, so you know VanGorder. I have to believe he is an improvement over Roof.
The main reason I see at least a one game improvement for Auburn is two-fold:
1. From a recruiting perspective, Auburn is every bit as talented as Georgia and more talented than every other team on their schedule except LSU and Bama.
2. They are still a young football team, but they are a lot more experienced than they were last season.
Young and talented teams are expected to have their ups (South Carolina, Florida)and their downs (LSU, UGA, Bama, Arkansas). However as they mature they should become more consistent.
I expect Auburn to be more consistent and competitive this season, especially against those teams that hammered them last year.
They play all 5 of those teams again this year and I expect Auburn to win at least 2 of those games, maybe three if your dogs have a bad day.
Also, when you talk about Auburn you have to completely throw out the 2010 season because it was an anomaly. Probably one of the most senior laden teams in the history of college football and a once in a lifetime player in Cam Newton. Georgia would have coasted to a victory in 2010 over Auburn if it wasn’t for Cam Newton.
I believe a lot of teams would have coasted to victory over Auburn in 2010 w/o Cam. LOL!
Sorry Pez, but 50%, even at home against Georgia is a little optimistic. I understand you picked them to lose 4 games including Georgia, but just don’t see them making that big of a leap to place them at 50% against Georgia.
Not exactly in love with Vegas’ thinking of Auburn going 8-4 this year. I think it’s going to be more like 7-5 and maybe 6-6. They could quite easily lose to a pumped Clemson side looking to prove something after their Bowl Game Distaster, and going on the road to MSU won’t be easy either. Don’t be shocked if they are 0-2 in the first two games of the year.
That leaves 8-4 a major uphill struggle- particularly with the loss of Michael Dyer, which is going to be a massive loss.
And like everyone else, I think Georgia will beat Auburn (60%) – and only that close because the game’s in Jordan-Hare.
I love that it’s not even July and I’m already thinking about this. Thanks for doing this!
Thanks for the comments Alex. I believe you hit the nail on the head concerning Auburn’s first two games. I wouldn’t be surprised w/ an 0-2 or a 2-0. 0-2 and they will struggle to get to 6 wins w/ the tough schedule they have.
I’ve been taking a beating w/ my Georgia win percentage projection, and I understand everyone’s argument. In my defense I do have UGA as one of Auburn’s most likely losses. However, that is based on Georgia having more proven talent (experience), not more overall talent.
Based on the past 4 years, Auburn’s 4-year composite recruiting ranking is 8th vs Georgia’s 9th.
Auburn also beat a very good South Carolina team last year on the road. So they are capable of beating Georgia, Arkansas and Clemson.
I’m not saying they are going to beat them, just saying they are capable of beating them.
Thanks again for the comments.
Pez
Don’t get too carried away with recruiting rankings. If we took them to the letter then Texas should have been competing for National Championships the last two years and should be the favorite this year.
Also, don’t under estimate the “Willie Martinez” factor. Auburn’s secondary could take a huge step back this year (which would be tough considering they weren’t very good last year).
True about Texas the last few years. However, from a talent perspective, they are still loaded (especially on defense), they just underachieved because of:
1. bad QB play
2. bad coaching
3. sense of entitlement
As we’ve discussed before, I think Texas takes out some two years of frustration on a few unlucky foes this year.
You don’t seem to be a big fan of ex-Bulldog coaches huh? LOL!
What about VanGorder?
I love Erk Russell!
As a college DC, I think BVG is a really good coach, although not a great recruiter (which won’t hurt at Auburn as long as they have Trooper and his money). As a Falcons fan, I’m lukewarm on BVG right now.