Handicapping the 2015 College Football National Championship

The common trend among national champions since the NCAA went to the BCS system in 1998 has been recruiting at an elite level. With the exception of longshot Oklahoma in 2000, every team that has won a national title in the BCS era has had at least two top 10 recruiting classes in the previous four cycles.

There are 11 teams that qualify for this metric in 2015, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M and USC.

Which teams are best qualified to win this year?

Several of these schools can be eliminated from our list immediately.

I do not believe that Michigan, Tennessee and Florida are ready to compete for the national championship this season.

Florida State has lost too much talent and experience to return to the playoffs this season, plus they have a more difficult schedule than usual. Texas A & M would have to make a nearly impossible jump in defensive production to qualify for the final four, let alone win the SEC and LSU has serious issues at quarterback.

I believe the remaining five teams have a realistic chance to win the 2015 national championship. So who has the best value?

NCAA football at William Hill lists these options and I believe Auburn and USC present us with the best wagering value.

Ohio State certainly has the elite talent and coaching to repeat as national champions. However, based on their current odds, they do not present enough value to consider wagering on them.

In the SEC, the road usually goes through Alabama. But the Crimson Tide have a more difficult schedule this season than they have had in previous years. They play a tough and physical October slate that includes road games at Georgia and Texas A&M, as well as the Iron Bowl at Auburn in November.

They have to navigate this tough schedule with the most inexperienced quarterback they have had during Nick Saban’s tenure.

Georgia looks like the team to beat in the SEC East. Head coach Mark Richt will field another talented team in Athens, but like Alabama the Dawgs are very unsettled at QB. They also have to play the best of the SEC West with Alabama and Auburn on their schedule.

I also personally don’t trust coach Richt to get the job done since he hasn’t been able to do it in the past. From a wagering perspective I would rather put my money on the coach (Gus Malzahn) and team who were in the title game just two years ago and are itching to return. Plus War Eagle now has former Florida head coach Will Muschamp running the defense, which is a huge upgrade.

The only other team I see having good value is USC. The Trojans always have the talent to compete, and this season they will finally have some quality depth. The biggest concern when considering USC’s chances of making the Final Four is their tough schedule.

Road games include Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon. I think they’ll need to take two out of those three games and defend their home turf against Stanford and UCLA to qualify. So their margin for error is small.

But with senior Heisman trophy candidate Cody Kessler at QB leading the way, I like their chances of qualifying for the playoffs and competing for a national championship.